Five minutes before the half-time break, Scotland had the put-in to a scrum inside Welsh territory. After three phases Wales turned the ball over and began a charge upfield through the relentless Taine Basham. Liam Williams soon had it and exchanged several innocuous kicks with Stuart Hogg. Wales kept possession but coughed it up a minute later as it was Scotland’s turn to win the breakdown battle and regain control. Not that they did much with it. Several phases down the road and very little had changed.
This brief segment encapsulated so much of the contest. Neither group was terrible. There were some exciting moments from men wearing red and blue alike. Wales’s forwards made massive strides from their defeat to Ireland last week, carrying with intensity and testing Scotland’s defence around the tighter channels.
They also surprised with their proficiency in the lineout, matching Scotland’s better-resourced set piece and mauling with technical efficiency. For their part, Scotland won the kicking battle and competed well on the ground.
But there was little cohesion, sustained pressure or dominance outside of a small window following a yellow card to Finn Russell. This left Wales hammering at Scotland’s try line with a man advantage but Dan Biggar opted to end the sequence with a drop goal.
This match was akin to watching 12 rounds of a flyweight boxing bout that contained few hooks and only the occasional uppercut. They could have played in the Cardiff rain for a week before a blow of any real substance was landed.
Wales won on points – both on the scoreboard and in this stretched boxing metaphor. Wayne Pivac won’t care about the length of the highlights reel, only that his team emerged from the scrap with four points. Scotland’s quest for a first win at the Principality since 2002 continues.
Credit must go to the Wales back row. Basham, Ross Moriarty and the impressive Jac Morgan on debut are all smaller than their opposite numbers at the back of the Scottish pack. But they fought with palpable pride and an understanding that many had written their side off before the anthems were sung.
They ran straight and hard and offered Tomos Williams and Biggar, a winner in his 100th Test, front-foot ball that they occasionally used to string creative moves out wide. When they did give the ball air they looked threatening in patches, though their inability to bust through Scotland’s line will need to be addressed in the coming weeks.
It will stand Wales in good stead that their try was scored from a rumbling set-piece move. Much of the talk has focused on the lack of heft in the tight five. Their former captain Sam Warburton had expressed concern about Wales’s ability to hang with opponents that possessed more grunt up front.
That is not to say that a corner has been turned. In fact, both Pivac and Gregor Townsend will have concerns about their respective packs’ inability to boss the gain line. Ireland and France await both teams and as much as the romantics love to see the ball flung about with abandon, cold logic dictates that championships are most often won by the team with the meanest baddies in the scrum.
Without that forward dominance so much is left for the magicians in the backline and Scotland’s wizard at 10 barely cast a spell all day. Russell’s long pass set up Darcy Graham for his try in the opening quarter of an hour, but the fly-half was mostly quiet. His most telling contribution was a deliberate knock-on that kicked off a chain of events whicyh ended with Biggar’s winner.
This match was not too dissimilar from Wales’s defeat here against South Africa in the autumn. Back then a close affair was turned by the Springboks’ power from the bench, which saw the world champions claim a tight victory. Townsend said on Thursday that he was ripping a page out of Rassie Erasmus’s playbook by unleashing two sets of front rows in order to keep his scrum motoring at full capacity through the 80 minutes.
It is worth mentioning South Africa because, like them or not, they have laid down a blueprint on how to win these arm wrestles. Wales and Scotland have shown they can win big games. Wales are Six Nations champions by right and the Scots have an impressive list of recent scalps both home and away.
But a year out from the World Cup, and in the midst of a competitive Six Nations, some questions persist around their title credentials. The most pertinent one concerns the raw strength in each team. Tougher examinations will be needed before a definitive answer is reached.
