India Metrological Department (IMD) on May 26 said that monsoon is expected to make onset in Kerala on June 4 and that it will most likely be normal this year despite the El Nino weather phenomenon.
"We are expecting the monsoon to arrive in Kerala around June 4. Before June 1, we are not expecting the monsoon to arrive. Monsoon is most likely to be normal this year," IMD said.
IMD also said that as per the predictions that stand as of now, northwest India will get below-normal rain this year.
"There is no cyclone probability in the Arabian Sea for next week. In northwest India, as of now, below normal rainfall will be there," IMD officials said.
IMD said the reason for pre-monsoon rain in the northern part of the country is due to the weather phenomena of Western Disturbance.
"Due to Western Disturbance, we have witnessed, rainfall and thunderstorm activity. So, because of that, we have been witnessing a bit of relief in Delhi and neighbouring cities," IMD said.
"If rainfall distribution is almost similar everywhere, then it will be an ideal situation. There won't be any problem. If we get equal distribution everywhere, there won't be much impact on agriculture. In northwest India, as of now, below-normal rainfall will be there," IMD said.
Southwest monsoon normally sets in over Kerala on June 1 with a standard deviation of about 7 days. India Meteorological Department (IMD) has been issuing operational forecasts for the date of monsoon onset over Kerala from 2005 onwards.
Last year, the monsoon over Kerala occurred on May 29, two days after IMD's prediction on May 27. The operational forecasts of the date of monsoon onset over Kerala during the past 18 years (2005-2022) were proved to be correct except in 2015, the IMD said.
The southwest monsoon over the Indian mainland is marked by monsoon onset over Kerala and is an important indicator characterizing the transition from a hot and dry season to a rainy season.
The emergence of the El Nino weather pattern has raised concerns over monsoon rainfall in 2023.
El Nino, which is the warming of the waters in the Pacific Ocean near South America, is generally associated with the weakening of monsoon winds and dry weather in India. The El Nino conditions this year follow three consecutive La Nina years. La Nina, which is the opposite of El Nino, typically brings good rainfall during the monsoon season.
(With inputs from agencies)
