Good morning. It has been two weeks since a devastating 7.8-magnitude earthquake hit southern Turkey and north-west Syria. The total death toll now exceeds 46,000 – over 40,000 of whom are in Turkey. A number of cities and towns have been destroyed and at least two million people have lost their homes, prompting the government to set up a makeshift network of tent camps and temporary container homes. On Saturday, Turkey announced that it had ended rescue efforts in all but two of the hardest hit provinces, in the cities of Antakya and Kahramanmaraş.
As time has gone on, shock around the disaster has turned into anger and frustration, with Turkish citizens accusing the government of evading accountability over poor building standards. The delayed and disorganised emergency response has not helped the situation, putting president Recep Tayyip Erdoğan in an increasingly precarious position as the country heads towards its next general election. I spoke to Dr Karabekir Akkoyunlu, a UK-based expert in Turkish politics and lecturer at SOAS University of London, about the impact the earthquake has had on Erdoğan’s chances for another term in office. That’s right after the headlines.
Five big stories
UK news | Police investigating the disappearance of Nicola Bulley in Lancashire have found a body in the River Wyre, after a tipoff by members of the public. Bulley vanished on 27 January while walking her dog in the village of St Michael’s on Wyre. Formal identification of the body is yet to be carried out.
Retail | Nearly 15,000 job losses have already been announced since January in a “brutal start to the year”. The majority of the losses are at large companies like Tesco and Asda, who are restructuring and trying to cut costs.
Northern Ireland | Rishi Sunak has been warned that more than 100 Tory MPs could rebel over a deal with the EU to help break the post-Brexit deadlock in Northern Ireland. There was a backlash on Sunday over details which leaked out about concessions said to have been made by the UK.
Police | Analysis of official data in a report called I Can’t Breathe: Race, Death and British Policing, has found that black people in Britain are seven times more likely to die than white people following restraint by police.
Baftas | German war drama All Quiet on the Western Front has swept the board at the British Academy Film Awards in London, taking seven awards, including best picture and best director for Edward Berger. The night’s other big winner was The Banshees of Inisherin, which also gained significant momentum in this year’s Oscars race.
In depth: ‘The government will not escape unscathed – it’s going to lead to a landslide loss in support’
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What was Erdoğan’s position before the earthquake?
Over the last two years, Erdoğan has not been doing well politically. “Even though he has control over the judiciary, the media and the executive, the opposition has managed to form coalitions that work fairly effectively in key moments that have damaged him politically,” Dr Karabekir Akkoyunlu says. “For instance, in the 2019 local elections, they managed to get the municipalities of Istanbul and Ankara out of the hands of the ruling party after 24 years, which was a huge setback for them.”
Erdoğan’s falling popularity has, in large part, been because of Turkey’s weakening economy: the lira has been collapsing in value for years, recently hitting record lows against the dollar. And while inflation has fallen over the last two months, the average person in Turkey is unlikely to feel immediate relief as the country has consistently had some of the highest inflation rates in Europe – in October it reached a 24-year high of 85.5%.
To combat his poor polling, Erdoğan started announcing “last ditch populist measures,” Akkoyunlu says, that he might not be able to deliver. In October he unveiled what he called “the biggest social housing project in the history of the Turkish republic”, promising to build 500,000 new homes. “He started pulling these policies out of the bag even though they would obviously have huge costs for Turkey’s already empty state coffers,” says Akkoyunlu.
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What do the public think now?
As buildings that should have been able to withstand the earthquake collapsed, the government has faced scathing criticism about the lack of oversight of construction firms that were allowed to skirt safety regulations in favour of speed and cost. “None of these were hidden things, they were flagged by civil society groups, activists and coalition politicians in the past, but they were oftentimes ignored, or, in certain cases, put in prison because of their activism,” says Akkoyunlu. Now, with a number of Turkish towns and cities reduced to rubble, the focus has moved back to what many are calling systemic corruption.
While public opinion will change as the country starts to rebuild, and Erdoğan likely takes all the credit for getting Turkey back on its feet, the government will not be able to shake this crisis off, like it often has been able to in the past. “From this vantage point of less than two weeks since the disaster, I think the government will not escape unscathed in terms of public opinion. I believe it’s going to lead to a landslide loss in public support,” says Akkoyunlu.
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The elections
Erdoğan has made it clear that he has no desire to relinquish control and will do everything that he can to stay in power, and that might not always be within the framework of the democratic process. Currently, the official plans are that the elections will go ahead in May, or at the latest June, and if that happens Erdogan’s prospects do not look good. This is perhaps why he has been pushing ahead with unconstitutional moves to delay the election, saying that Turkey cannot hold an election in these conditions. “But there’s roughly five months until June and elections have been organised regularly in this country in very adverse conditions, so this is a clear attempt to evade accountability,” Akkoyunlu says.
As the centenary of the Turkish republic approaches, this coming election is a critical juncture for the country. Five more years of Erdoğan’s government would mean a further slide towards authoritarianism and cronyism. “This election will determine whether there is a last exit before the bridge for saving Turkish democracy.”
Akkoyunlu also notes that it is important to place Turkey within the global economic system. “Many international organisations have praised the drive of the Turkish economy towards growth and the construction sector has been at the centre of Turkey’s economic boom.” Akkoyunlu adds, “Turkey’s a particular case of what happens when neoliberalism and democratic erosion come together.”
The opposition – a six-party coalition – has it’s own uphill battle to climb, and is yet to announce who will be their presidential candidate. If they win, public institutions could easily still be filled with Erdoğan loyalists, which would make it difficult for them to govern. Or they might inherit hollowed out government departments that are simply not functional. Akkoyunlu says, however, that this is less “about things becoming perfect and more about taking one step to stop the worst from happening.”
Erdoğan’s government came in two decades ago promising to clean up Turkey, after a series of corruption scandals, economic crises, and a devastating earthquake. “I think it’s a very tragic picture,” Akkoyunlu adds. “It seems Turkey has come full circle, and in some ways, in terms of democracy, it has backtracked.”
What else we’ve been reading
Tim Adams interviewed the one and only Bernie Sanders, on Biden, his new book, and what it’s like on the other side of a five-decade-long career. Nimo
Yotam Ottolenghi’s pick of pancake day recipes are a cut above my usual sad crepes and – naturally – look totally mouthwatering. Hannah J Davies, deputy editor, newsletters
In this moving piece, Eliza Hull speaks to four people with disabilities about how parenthood changed their lives. Nimo
Alex Moshakis’s Observer interview with Stath Lets Flats star and creator Jamie Demetriou is a warm portrait of the comic and actor, with much affecting detail about his father’s dementia. Hannah
Nesrine Malik is, as ever, brilliant in her column, where she unpacks the Tories last-ditch attempt to shore up support: vilifying migrants, who once again find themselves “public enemy number one”. Nimo
Sport
Football | Marcus Rashford continued his volcanic streak, leading Manchester United to a comfortable 3-0 victory against Leicester. Meanwhile, West Ham were unable to get out of the relegation zone, losing 2-0 to Tottenham.
Golf | John Rahm has reclaimed the top spot as world No1 with his third victory of the year in the Genesis Invitational. Rahm carded a closing 69 at Riviera to finish 17 under par, beating American Max Homa.
Cricket | Ben Stokes has described himself as a “blessed” captain as England head into this week’s second Test against New Zealand with a 1-0 lead. The 267-run victory in Mount Maunganui was a sixth straight win under Stokes – a run England last achieved in 2010.
The front pages
The Guardian leads with an exclusive: “Top scientist issues stark warning on ‘shattered’ healthcare workers”. Jeremy Farrar has said a “global morale crisis” urgently needs tackling.
Much of the other front ages are dominated by the search for Nicola Bulley. The Telegraph reports, “Body found in search for missing Nicola”. The i says, “Police find body in river near where Nicola Bulley went missing”.
The Mirror leads on “Family’s worst fears”, while the Sun splashes with, “Nicola: it’s heartbreak”. The Mail says, “Body found less than mile from where she vanished”.
Finally the Financial Times reports, “Poland calls for Nato to guarantee Ukraine’s security after end of war”.
Today in Focus
The true cost of wood-burning stoves
Learning the full extent of the environmental damage caused by wood-burning stoves led Guardian columnist George Monbiot to issue a public mea culpa – and help ignite a raging debate
Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett
Sign up for Inside Saturday to see more of Edith Pritchett’s cartoons, the best Saturday magazine content and an exclusive look behind the scenes
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
A black British family with no prior TV experience have been commissioned to make a new children’s show for Sky. Cynthia and Anthony Deluola from London self-published a series of books and made their own animated cartoon for their daughter Elise, before approaching the broadcaster. Ama’s Story, which will air on the Sky Kids channel on 24 February, aims to portray black families as aspirational and educated, offering representation which is often absent from kids’ television. Its characters are based on Elise, whose Ghanian name is Ama, and her two brothers, Aaron (Ayo) and Jadon (Ade). Anthony Deluola called the experience “a dream come true”. “The kids can see something that they can relate to,” he added. “The food that’s being cooked, the way the family looks, especially from a London perspective”.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
