Good morning.
As Russia’s war in Ukraine grinds on and the prospect of a Trump presidency becomes more likely, military leaders in the UK and across Europe have been warning that peacetime may be coming to an end.
In his first speech as defence secretary, Grant Shapps echoed this sentiment, saying that we are moving from a “postwar” to a “prewar” world. And it’s not just the UK: Germany’s defence minister, Boris Pistorius, predicted that a Russian attack on a Nato country is only five to eight years away. With a dwindling army – Britain’s military is the smallest it’s been in 400 years – the threat feels more palpable than ever to some. The head of the British army, General Sir Patrick Sanders, said during a military conference Britain should train and equip a citizen’s army because years of poor recruitment has meant that the number of fully trained army personnel has dropped to record lows, leaving the UK vulnerable. Though he was not advocating for conscription, the idea of mass mobilisation has set off alarm bells.
Downing Street and the Ministry of Defence (MoD) swiftly dismissed the claims made by Gen Sanders, insisting that there were no plans to reinstate national service. But for today’s newsletter I spoke with Guardian security and defence editor Dan Sabbagh about the crisis in the military, and what it means for Britain’s security. But first, the headlines.
Five big stories
Councils | Angela Rayner has accused the Conservatives of cynically applying a “sticking plaster” to council finances to get through the next election, as local authority leaders warn that more will go bust next year. The shadow communities secretary said Labour was “under no illusions” about the financial mess it would inherit in local councils if it gained power.
Policing | Officers in a police force that bungled the investigation into a suspected racist killing, allegedly went on holiday, dined and partied with suspects arrested over the attack, the Guardian has learned. The new claims come on the 25th anniversary of the death of Jay Abatan, 42, who was attacked outside a Brighton nightclub in January 1999.
Labour | The former Conservative donor who chairs Iceland supermarket, Richard Walker, has publicly backed Keir Starmer to be the next prime minister, saying the Labour leader understands how the cost of living crisis has put an “unbearable strain” on families.
Middle East | Three US servicemen have been killed and more than 34 injured after a drone attack on a US service base on the border of Jordan and Syria. Joe Biden blamed Iranian backed militia mainly based in Iraq for the “despicable” attack and vowed revenge.
Vaping | Ministers are to ban disposable vapes as part of a UK-wide drive to curb youth vaping. The government is also seeking to make vaping less appealing to children by restricting sweet and fruity flavours, introducing plain packaging and making displays less visible in shops, under newly announced powers.
In depth: ‘For many, the geopolitical goals of the UK are not worth fighting for’
For years, the British military has struggled to attract applicants, resulting in a net loss of 3,000 people last year. Between September 2022 and October 2023, the number of personnel fell from 79,000 to 75,000. By 2025, the government predicts it will fall again to 73,000. Dan says a number of factors have come together to create this problem for the military. One is what he calls the “politics of values”: the wars that Britain has fought in over the last 20 years have been politically contested and, as such, “for many people, the causes the British military are chasing and the geopolitical goals of the UK are not sufficiently attractive or worth fighting for.”
Outside the moral quandaries, there are problems arising from the unglamorous reality of working in the military. Like most public sector jobs, army wages have lagged behind inflation, a lot of military accommodation is substandard with issues like mould, and there have been a series of scandals, including a sexual harassment crisis and allegations of war crimes in Afghanistan.
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The big threats
The main threat to Britain and the rest of Europe currently is Russia, though the chance of an imminent ground war are slim as Russia is bogged down, for now, in the war in Ukraine. “If the US pull out of funding Ukraine, which they might if Donald Trump becomes president, then you could potentially have a line of aggressive thinking from Russia where they try their luck in creating more havoc in Europe and the Baltic states,” Dan says.
Fear has grown across continental Europe, particularly the countries nearest Russia, that the war in Ukraine could spill over its borders. Boris Pistorius said that even though the possibility of all-out war in the short term is low, Europe should not be complacent: “We are dealing with a military threat in Europe that has not existed for 30 years.”
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What are other countries doing?
Many countries in Europe are preemptively building their defences. The Baltic states, Scandinavia and Poland have been boosting military spending. Finland recently joined Nato, and Sweden is in the process of doing so too. Finland, which shares a border with Russia, has a reserve of up to 900,000 conscripts and 280,000 full-time personnel. Many of these countries already had conscription policies but now other states that had previously abandoned this policy, like Latvia, Sweden and France, have started to reinstate it in some capacity.
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Life after Nato
In theory, Nato would continue to exist without the US. There are 27 other powerful member states, many of which are also deeply connected via membership of the European Union. But in practice, without the US and its considerable resources and manpower, Nato’s capabilities are significantly diminished. Of around 3.5 million combined troops in Nato, the US makes up 1.35 million. It is then followed by Turkey, which has about 460,000 soldiers.
Realistically, even under a Trump presidency, the US will not leave Nato. The main qualm the US has had for years is that “America spends nearly $900bn a year on defence and they feel Europe piggy backs off that,” Dan says. And, to an extent, this is true. “Trump has used threatening to leave as a way to get leverage, so some of this is him playing the negotiation,” Dan adds.
The truth is, however, that Trump does not need to withdraw from Nato to reduce US support. This uncertainty has been picked up on, with Shapps calling for more spending on defence. He said “Europe needs to step up and look after its own security”, adding that “we can’t carry on expecting the US to always ride in to the rescue of Europe.” Other European leaders have harped on the need to secure “strategic autonomy” for a number of years, but so far this has not happened.
Both Shapps and Gen Sanders have suggested that war is lurking around the corner, but Dan says this is not necessarily true. “I think that kind of rhetoric is unhelpful as it suggests a kind of inevitability of conflict – which doesn’t really exist.”
What else we’ve been reading
The hardest thing for a football manager is knowing when to go. Jonathan Wilson notes the similarities between the unexpected departures from Liverpool of Jürgen Klopp (above) and Bill Shankly. Clare Longrigg, acting head of newsletters
Chris McGreal’s interview with Art Van Zee, the doctor who sounded the alarm on the US’s opioid crisis nearly two decades ago, is a fascinating read. Despite his warnings, the problem has only gotten worse, he said: “It’s gonna be a long time that people will be dealing with this. The human cost and what’s happened in our region is not easily repaired”. Nimo
Rowan Moore visits an experimental village in France for people with Alzheimer’s where architects work to improve the wellbeing of people nearing the end of life. Clare
If getting up in the morning feels near impossible every day, then Joel Snape has written a comprehensive list of ways to become more of an early riser. Nimo
A decade of cuts has reduced local authorities’ ability to deal with key long-term issues, from child protection to an ageing society. Patrick Butler examines the cost pressures facing local councils. Clare
Sport
Football | Wolves beat West Brom 2-0, winning their first derby at the Hawthorns since 1996 to earn a place in the fifth round of the FA Cup. But the victory was overshadowed by fighting that erupted during the game. The match was suspended for 38 minutes and West Midlands police made two arrests. Meanwhile, Liverpool’s emphatic 5-2 victory against Norwich was a huge relief to outgoing manager Jürgen Klopp.
Tennis | Facing the grim prospect of likely defeat, 22-year-old Jannik Sinner pulled off the greatest comeback of his life to topple Daniil Medvedev 3-6, 3-6, 6-4, 6-4, 6-3 and win his first grand slam title in the Australian Open.
Cricket | England’s astonishing 28-run victory against India in the first Test in Hyderabad, was sealed by the debutant Tom Hartley’s stellar seven‑wicket haul. This was England’s 14th win from 19 under Stokes and his head coach, Brendon McCullum.
The front pages
The Guardian leads with “Fears of US-Iran conflict intensify after troops killed in drone attack”. The Financial Times follows the same story with “Iran-backed militants kill 3 US troops in drone attack”. The Telegraph has “Iran to blame for deaths of US troops, says Biden”, while the Times says “Drone strike on US base raises fears of Iran war”.
With a number of councils on the “brink of bankruptcy”, the Mirror reports “Lives wrecked by Tories’ town hall cash squeeze”. The i leads with “Labour private school tax set to squeeze deprived children at some grammar schools”.
The Mail has “Strike hell on trains as chiefs cash in”. Finally, the Sun has an interview with England defender Kyle Walker, under the headline “Kyle: I’m so sorry”.
Today in Focus
The mothers and wives of Russian soldiers daring to defy Putin
Partners and parents of conscripted fighters are demanding that their loved ones come home. What does it say about Russian support for the war? With Pjotr Sauer.
Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett
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The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Ever tried lava soup in Iceland, or assassins’ pasta in Bari? Would you know where to find vegan pierogi in Kraków? Our readers share their tips for their favourite food spots across Europe – places a visitor might miss, popular with locals.
At Obor market, a couple of miles north-west of Bucharest’s old town, is an outdoor barbecue spot famous for its mici – small meat rolls similar to kofta. Hidden in the main hall of Varvakios Agora market in Athens you can choose your fish and specify how you’d like it cooked.
These and other favourite bars, restaurants and food markets across the continent make for a cheering travelogue.
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
