Good morning. Recep Tayyip Erdoğan called it “magnificent”; his rival Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu called it “the most unfair election in years”. Either way, after the most significant challenge to his supremacy since he rose to power in Turkey two decades ago, Erdoğan is president again, winning yesterday’s runoff election by 52% to 48%, a margin of more than 2m votes. Now the question is what he will do with that victory.
Erdoğan’s success will have significant consequences for Turkey’s economy, minority groups and refugees, and the country’s position on the international stage – and it could pave the way for a significant consolidation of his power. Today’s newsletter, with Dr Ziya Meral, senior associate fellow at the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) thinktank, explains what just happened – and what might happen next. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Policing | The Metropolitan police will no longer attend emergency calls related to mental health incidents, the force’s commissioner has said. In a letter seen by the Guardian, Sir Mark Rowley said the decision was taken to prevent officers from being diverted from solving crimes – but the change could cause consternation among ambulance workers, paramedics and NHS staff.
US politics | US president Joe Biden has said a bipartisan deal to raise the $31.4tn US debt ceiling and avoid a default is ready to move to Congress and urged lawmakers to pass the agreement he struck with Republican House speaker Kevin McCarthy. A vote could be taken on the bill as soon as Wednesday.
Inflation | Ministers are working with supermarkets to voluntarily cap the price of basic food items in an effort to ease the UK’s cost of living squeeze, but the government insists it is not considering price caps. A possible voluntary scheme for maximum prices for certain goods was raised at a meeting between the chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, and the supermarket chains.
Constitutional reform | The UK could break apart unless it is rebuilt as a “solidarity union” where every citizen’s rights are protected, the first minister of Wales has warned. Ahead of a conference on Labour’s proposals for constitutional reform this week, Mark Drakeford said: “We have to rebuild the safety net, so you know that your membership of the United Kingdom entitles you to that collective security that it represents.”
Media | ITV has said there are no plans to take This Morning off air after reports it could be axed over the Phillip Schofield controversy. The broadcaster denied speculation in Sunday’s newspapers about the show’s future after Schofield admitted to an “unwise, but not illegal” affair with a young colleague.
In depth: ‘Turkey is going to look much more like China in five years’
Before the first round of the Turkish election, most analysts viewed a victory for opposition leader Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu as a real possibility. It didn’t happen, and while Recep Tayyip Erdoğan has never been run so close, he is celebrating another five years in office this morning. His 4% margin – comfortable, but not a landslide – suggests that there will be “no real change of course in Turkey,” says Soner Cagaptay, senior fellow at the Washington Institute thinktank in the US.
Even though there were some concerns about irregularities that benefited Erdoğan and his Justice and Development (AKP) party – and he exploited support from influential media outlets largely controlled by his allies – the margin suggests that his victory is indisputable. Kılıçdaroğlu told his supporters that he did not contest the vote count.
“If you see what’s happening in Turkey as simply about manipulating the state, you’re ignoring the really broad social support for what Erdoğan represents,” Ziya Meral said. “Nationalists, Islamists, religious conservatives and those who simply view him as the trusted figure who can turn things around can all support him comfortably. Kılıçdaroğlu’s coalition was only really united by wanting to see Erdoğan toppled.”
Here’s a summary of some of the most important impacts of Erdoğan’s victory.
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International relations | A further turn away from the west – but a role in Ukraine
While there have been signs that western countries have held back on public criticism of Erdoğan, “the truth is that relations are already at a historic low with both the US and Europe,” Meral said.
Perhaps the most urgent question is whether Erdoğan will continue to oppose Sweden joining Nato. He may take a more obstructionist stance given the strength of Nato-sceptic ultranationalists in parliament.
“That comes with a subtext of Turkish-US relations,” Meral said. “If there is progress in Washington on the sale of F-16 fighter jets that Turkey wants, or if Biden hosts Erdoğan in the White House, some sort of normalisation is possible.”
Meanwhile, Erdoğan will press on with attempts to find new investment for the Turkish economy among previously adversarial countries in the Middle East “and wherever he can find it”, Meral said, with the old goal of EU membership in tatters.
Erdoğan will also continue to hold a unique position as the leader of a Nato power who maintains relations with Russia. Patrick Wintour writes that “few western diplomats are optimistic” that closer ties with Vladimir Putin can be avoided.
“He has leverage if Nato has a specific, tangible ask of Moscow, as with the Ukraine grain deal,” Meral said – but that role can be overstated. “Russia can already negotiate directly with Nato if it wants to. The channels are there, but it doesn’t use them.”
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Economy | No change to approach that brought rampant inflation
Erdoğan has refused to raise interest rates despite massive inflation, insisting his policy will deal with the problem in defiance of economic orthodoxy.
During the campaign, as Kılıçdaroğlu (above) promised a more conventional approach, the president did hint he might change tack – but after his strong first round showing he reaffirmed he would maintain his current course.
“I don’t see that changing,” Meral said. Erdoğan made expensive commitments while campaigning, including a 45% pay rise for 700,000 public sector workers and hundreds of thousands of new homes in areas devastated by February’s earthquake. “There will be a lot of borrowing to fund it. But there will ultimately be a bill for that policy.”
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Minority rights | Dismay for Kurds, LGBTQ+ people, and women
Turkey’s Kurdish minority were seen as important to Kılıçdaroğlu’s hopes of victory. Even after he shocked the leftist pro-Kurdish HDP party that was part of his coalition by pivoting to court far-right voters with an overtly nationalist pitch that reneged on previous promises to Kurds, he kept their reluctant support.
That is because, since 2015 and the collapse of the peace process with the Kurdistan Workers’ party (PKK) – which Turkey views as a terrorist group – Erdoğan has prosecuted a wide-ranging crackdown.
Some Kurds fear hardened rhetoric from Erdoğan during the campaign could presage an escalation. “I don’t think it will get worse,” Meral said. “But there are already very serious concerns about the freedom of expression, freedom of assembly, and Kurdish political representation.”
Meanwhile, Erdoğan has frequently attacked the rights of Turkey’s LGBTQ+ community with appeals to the importance of “a strong family”. And there has been a suspected rise in femicides since Turkey withdrew from the Istanbul convention on violence against women. For more on those fears, see this piece from earlier this month by Ruth Michaelson and Deniz Barış Narlı.
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Refugees | Relief for Syrians – and the EU
As part of his courtship of the far right, Kılıçdaroğlu also took a hardline stance on the estimated four million mostly Syrian refugees who live in Turkey, the largest number anywhere in the world. On Thursday, he said: “I will send all refugees back home once I am elected as president, period.” That explains why many Afghans, Syrians and others forced to make their homes in Turkey have been hoping for an Erdoğan victory.
“If it was in the UK, we would say that Kılıçdaroğlu’s language was far right,” Miral said. “But there is a disturbing tendency to accept it as what he has to say to win.”
Whatever the other deep concerns about a new term for Erdoğan, “he has been quite responsible about this question. An opposition victory would have meant a new refugee crisis in Europe, because many were likely to go there instead of home. So there will be relief on this subject and a sense that a crisis has been avoided.”
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Consolidation of power | A turning point, but not an end
This election has been widely billed as a last chance to stop Erdoğan turning Turkey into a full autocracy – and he is likely to take significant steps to consolidate his power, removing term limits and perhaps lowering the bar from 50% for victory in the first round of the presidential election.
“You can’t underestimate the weight of this result,” Meral said. “Turkey is going to look much more like China in five years’ time – a very long-term leader with a single party, different technocratic appointments running different portfolios, and limited tolerance for opposition.”
At the same time, he cautioned, it is an oversimplification to write off Turkey’s democratic future. “This is a historic turning point, but Turkey has had plenty of those in the past. If the opposition learn the lessons of their failure this term, it is still not impossible that this could be his last.”
What else we’ve been reading
The last episode of Succession is finally here. Whether you’re already getting withdrawal symptoms following the finale (or you’re gearing up to watch it), Michael Hogan’s list of the 40 of the best zingers from the series will help to fill the new/impending Waystar-shaped hole in your brain. And here’s Stuart Heritage’s live blog, which you definitely shouldn’t click on until you’ve seen it. Nimo
“There is always a newer, cooler, more desirable version of ourselves to become, if only we buy the right products”. ICYMI, this slightly concerning piece from The Cut (£) about our reliance on internet shopping has been doing the rounds. In short: buying with abandon is in – even if people’s actual means are down. Hannah J Davies, deputy editor, newsletters
Isabeau Doucet’s dispatch on San Francisco’s empty skyscrapers and public transport is a fascinating look at how one of the most expensive cities in the US has become a hollowed out version of itself. Nimo
I didn’t really want to like the weird new horror film from maker of weird horror films Ari Aster, but the Joaquin Phoenix-starring Beau Is Afraid is a deliciously bizarre, unexpectedly comic – and often poignant – portrayal of anxiety. Read Philippa Snow’s piece for ArtReview on a film that is “something of a mess, an experiment gone frantically and Freudianly awry”, but which remains thrilling nonetheless. Hannah
Chitra Ramaswamy’s interview with the economist Faiza Shaheen is a brilliant read. Shaheen discusses her “crushing” loss as the Labour candidate standing against Iain Duncan Smith in Chingford in the 2019 election; the abuse she has experienced since entering public life; and her new book, Know Your Place. Nimo
Sport
Premier League | Everton fans celebrated wildly (above) after their club clung on to their place in the top flight thanks to Abdoulaye Doucouré’s superb 57th-minute winner against Bournemouth. The 1-0 win meant that Leicester’s 2-1 victory over West Ham was not enough to stay up, while Leeds were also relegated after they lost 4-1 to Tottenham Hotspur. Will Unwin writes that Everton’s players were “buoyed by unrelenting support” and “it felt as if fans and players were working in harmony”; Barney Ronay asks if there has been “a more distracted, avoidable slide into Premier League relegation in recent memory” than Leicester’s. For the rest of the results on the final day, click here.
Cycling | Mark Cavendish brought the curtain down on his final Giro d’Italia with a spectacular stage win in Rome, as Primož Roglič sealed his first overall victory in the race. Cavendish, who announced last week that he will retire at the end of this season, easily outsprinted his rivals to take his 17th stage win in the Giro.
Formula One | Max Verstappen dominated the Monaco Grand Prix to tighten his grip on a third championship, in a race that was saved from turning into a procession by a late downfall. Fernando Alonso – who appeared to have a chance of winning but made the wrong choice of tyres in the rain, finished second – while Esteban Ocon came in third.
The front pages
We begin the week at the Guardian with a front-page scoop: “Met police to stop going to mental health callouts”. “Supermarket bosses hit back at PM’s plan to cap food prices” and “Supermarkets warn ‘price cap’ won’t reduce food bills” – the splash headlines in the i and the Daily Express respectively. “Price caps will create shortages, PM warned” – that’s the Daily Telegraph which adds that Rishi Sunak is being warned “1970s tactics to lower food prices won’t work”. “British police bid to stop migrants leaving Africa” – the National Crime Agency wants to work with Tunisia and Algeria, says the Times.
Meanwhile, Phil and Holly may no longer be a TV duo, but they continue appear side by side on front pages. “We’ve ad it with This Morning” – the Sun says advertisers are abandoning the show. “Holly – I’ll be staying” – that’s if ITV bosses can save This Morning, reports the Mirror in its “Schofield fallout exclusive”. The Daily Mail has “TV doctor hits out at ‘toxic’ This Morning”. Our last splash story for this bank holiday Monday emanates from the US: “Republican chiefs try to quell revolt with debt default deadline looming”, reports the Financial Times.
Today in Focus
The Murdochs’ real-life succession drama
Who will take over Rupert Murdoch’s media empire after he dies, and why does it matter? Paddy Manning reports
Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett
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The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Joseph Dituri is known as Dr Deep Sea, and it’s no exaggeration. The researcher and explorer has spent the last two and a half months living in a subaquatic compound, 20ft below the surface of a Florida lagoon, to research the long-term effects of hyperbaric pressure on the body. His goal is to spend 100 days under water, where the atmospheric pressure is 70% higher than at the surface, to research how to reverse the ageing process. It’s not going to make you immortal, Dituri assures, but he does believe the findings could extend the length of our lives – and potentially help people live to 110.
A keen advocate for spreading scientific enthusiasm to children, Dituri has already spoken to thousands of schoolchildren over Zoom about his area of expertise. “If we can turn a kid into a little bit more of a scientist, that’s not bad at all,” says Dituri.
Sign up here for a weekly roundup of The Upside, sent to you every Sunday
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
