Good morning. If you are an England fan contemplating burying your head under the duvet until Christmas after Saturday’s heartwrenching World Cup defeat, your plan has this to be said for it: those who do venture beyond their front doors look likely to be met by a picture of chaos.
After ministers yesterday rebuffed an offer by nursing unions to suspend talks in return for new pay negotiations, and with Cobra meetings due today to work through controversial contingency plans involving the military, there is little reason to expect a reprieve from planned strikes. Industrial action already underway in December among bus, rail and postal workers will intensify and broaden this week to others in the public sector including ambulance drivers, baggage handlers, and driving examiners. The result will be some of the most significant disruption to the British economy in recent memory.
The strikes are a response to limited pay rises set against a backdrop of sharply rising inflation that the Trades Union Congress says has left key public sector workers £180 a month worse off than a year ago - and they have been met with a barrage of criticism that casts those walking out as irresponsible, selfish and unrealistic. Whether you’re hiding at home or venturing into the world this week, today’s newsletter will try to help you assess those claims against the underlying reality. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Solihull lake | Four children have been taken to hospital in cardiac arrest and are in critical condition after falling through the ice on a lake in Solihull. Police continued rescue operations overnight with reports a further two children may be missing.
Cold weather | UK power prices have hit record levels as an icy cold snap and a fall in supplies of electricity generated by wind power have combined to push up wholesale costs. Meanwhile, further travel disruption is expected this week with temperatures forecast to stay well below freezing overnight.
Lockerbie | A Libyan accused of preparing the bomb that killed 270 people aboard Pan Am flight 103 over Lockerbie, Scotland in 1988 is now in US custody, officials have confirmed. Mohammed Abouagela Masud, a Libyan intelligence official, is reported to have been extradited to the US.
Jersey explosion | Nine people are feared dead and a criminal investigation could be launched after a suspected gas explosion destroyed a block of flats in Jersey’s capital, St Helier. An inquiry is under way into the actions of the fire service after residents reported a gas leak less than eight hours before the blast.
European Union | Belgian prosecutors investigating allegations that Qatar has sought to influence EU policy by bribing European parliament officials have charged four people with money laundering, corruption and participating in a criminal organisation. A Qatari official denied accusations of possible misconduct.
In depth: ‘NHS strikes are dangerous’ and other claims about industrial action
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‘This is effectively a general strike’
“This is looking increasingly like a general strike” – Stephen Glover, Daily Mail, 7 December
“It’s almost like a de facto general strike taking place by the amount of disputes” – Dave Ward, CWU general secretary, 3 December
Everyone agrees that industrial action in the weeks running up to Christmas will have a significant impact. But claims from both sides that the whole economy will grind to a halt in a “general strike” exaggerate the parallels with the past.
As this explainer from Philip Inman sets out, it used to be possible for the Trades Union Congress to coordinate a general strike without ballots in each area. But now the law bans strikes without a successful ballot in an individual workplace.
It might still be possible for a “de facto general strike” to happen if enough industries succeeded in bringing industrial action at the same time. But union representation in the UK since the Winter of Discontent in 1978 and 1979 has fallen significantly, from around 50% in 1979 to around 23% in 2021, although it is still around 50% in the public sector. The reality of the 1979 comparison is made clear in Richard Partington’s piece from 8 December, which points out that while the number of working days lost this year could reach 1.74m, in September 1979 alone, 12m days were lost.
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‘Striking workers are being greedy and their demands are unaffordable’
“Where is [Rishi Sunak’s] big effort to mobilise the country against these greedy union extremists?” – Douglas Murray, The Sun, 8 December
“Inflation-matching or inflation-busting pay rises are unaffordable … There simply isn’t the money.” Transport secretary Mark Harper, Sky News, 27 November
Critics of striking workers often present their pay demands as excessive in a time of economic difficulty. But in this analysis from July, Ashley Kirk sets out Office for National Statistics data that shows real public sector pay has fallen by 4.3% since the 2009 financial crisis. Meanwhile, the IFS says, real private sector pay has risen by 4.3% since 2010. New analysis published by the TUC today says that 2022 has been the worst year for real pay growth for almost 50 years.
Pay demands should also be set against the impact of inflation, which is quickly eroding the value of even generous-sounding settlements. For example, an offer to rail workers described as “8%” in a Daily Telegraph headline on 4 December is spread over two years, making it 4% in reality, against the most recent inflation figure of 11.1%.
One way to get at the question of affordability is to examine the government’s claims of the cost to taxpayers. Rishi Sunak claims that it would cost about £1,000 extra per household to give pay rises offsetting 10% inflation this year. But Ben Zaranko of the Institute for Fiscal Studies points out in this BBC Reality Check piece that once you factor in the 3% average pay rises for public sector workers already budgeted for 2022-23, the real “extra” cost is around £640 per household, about a third of which would be returned in tax.
The question of whether a bit over £400 per household is affordable – with the greatest burden falling on the richest – is ultimately a political judgment. We can also ask whether it is true, as is often claimed, that pay rises will stoke inflation. This piece by Richard Partington yesterday argues that fears a “wage-price spiral” is under way are overplayed. The Bank of England estimates holding overall wage growth to 2.5% could reduce inflation by 1.5 percentage points – “a drop in the ocean” compared to the impact of soaring energy prices.
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‘NHS strikes are putting people in danger’
“[Ambulance staff] joined the service to save lives, not put them at risk” – Conservative MP Mike Penning, Daily Mail, 6 December
“It will cause pain and discomfort for people and put lives at risk” – Whitehall source, Daily Express, 6 December
One common theme of coverage of planned strikes by nurses and other NHS workers is a possible risk to patient safety – and there will clearly be some discomfort or delay as a result of the action. But it is another step to suggest that lives will be put at risk.
The “life-preserving care model” that guides Royal College of Nursing industrial action excludes emergency interventions to save lives or prevent disability from strikes as well as other situations where lives could be put at risk. Matthew Taylor, chief executive of the NHS Confederation, has urged urgent clarification on exemptions but told the BBC strike days would “feel like a weekend or bank holiday”.
The evidence from previous strikes suggests that it is possible to take industrial action without jeopardising safety. An Independent article published in August pointed to a 2018 BMJ study which found no measurable impact on mortality during junior doctors’ strikes in 2016, although it added that there were fewer A&E admissions and attendances. A strike in Northern Ireland in 2019 ended with “no adverse incidents” for patients, the RCN says.
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‘Negotiating is out of the government’s control’
“My role is to facilitate and support – not negotiate.” – Mark Harper, letter to RMT general secretary Mick Lynch, 29 November
“The essential discussions have to occur between the rail operating companies, Network Rail and the unions.” – work and pensions secretary Mel Stride, TalkTV, 23 November
Government ministers say that they stay out of negotiations, and that their hands are tied by independent pay bodies – with the government yesterday refusing the nursing union’s request to negotiate for that reason. But there are reasons to be sceptical about that account.
On Thursday, the FT reported that employers had planned to offer the RMT a 10% pay rise over two years, only for the government to intervene. The eventual offer was 8% over two years, tied to the introduction of driver-only trains. That was not denied by the Department for Transport, while the FT quotes an “industry figure” as calling the intervention a “clumsy mis-step” that exacerbated the situation.
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‘The public opposes strikes’
“The put-upon public are turning against militant unions set on ruining Christmas.” – report in the Sun, 6 December
“Civil servants shouldn’t expect sympathy for their strikes from the working taxpayers who pay their wages.” – John O’Connell, chief executive of the TaxPayers Alliance, 10 November
Opponents of strikes naturally wish to present themselves as the voices of ordinary working people. But the reality of the polling is more complicated.
Last week, for example, a YouGov poll found that only 37% of people support striking rail workers, against 51% opposed. But an Observer poll found 40% blaming the government and rail companies, with 37% holding unions responsible – and also showed big majorities supporting nurses.
If that picture is mixed, that is probably worse news for the government than unions, who certainly want public backing but ultimately answer only to their membership. The battleground now is whether the reality of strikes in the run-up to Christmas turn voters against the unions – or reinforces the sense that industrial action is part of a wider picture of government incompetence.
Guardian and Observer charity appeal 2022
The theme of the Guardian and Observer charity appeal 2022 is the cost of living crisis, with two charities at the heart of the voluntary response to rising poverty and hardship the beneficiaries. You can learn more about the charities, Locality and Citizens Advice, here. Read a letter about the appeal from Guardian editor Katharine Viner here. Mark Brown has a piece about Big River Bakery in Newcastle, the kind of local social enterprise that will ultimately benefit from donations, while Andrew Anthony writes about the impact of Citizens Advice (pictured above). Donations can be made online by credit card, debit card or PayPal, or by phone on 0151 284 1126. (Cheques cannot be accepted.) There’ll be plenty more about the work that your generosity will fund in the days ahead.
What else we’ve been reading
“He had a rollicking, expansive spirit, which made you want to be with him and bask in his warmth and in his appreciation of life and food and drink and sex.” Who wouldn’t want to be remembered as fondly as Robbie Coltrane was by Miriam Margolyes in the Observer’s impressive collection of obituaries for some of the most significant figures to have died this year. Toby Moses, head of newsletters
Here’s a lovely Observer guide on the best books to give this Christmas, ranging from Ruth Ozeki’s recommendation of George Saunders’ wonderful new short story collection Liberation Day to Siddhartha Mukherjee’s request that someone give him Atul Gawande’s 2014 essays on how doctors can help ensure a good death, Being Mortal. Archie
After many years of insomnia, I’ll confess to a slight obsession with articles about sleep – but Sally Howard’s exploration of “circadian hacking” nicely balances the benefits it’s brought to her life, with the expert view on the danger an obsession with our sleep cycles can cause. Toby
For Saturday magazine, Scott Bryan put together this oral history of Strictly Come Dancing, featuring tons of great nuggets from the people who made it such a success, despite a great deal of initial scepticism: “No one can learn to perform in two weeks!” Craig Revel Horwood remembers thinking. “This is going to be car-crash television.” Archie
Yes, it is pathetic that the time I put into P.G Wodehouse as a teenager was outstripped only by the hours I clocked on Football Manager. But Dan Brooks’ piece for Gawker about how Wodehouse’s “manic literary beaver” work ethic helped make him so reliably funny is acute and delightful even if you weren’t such a total loser. Archie
World Cup
Many England fans may not have the stomach for it so soon after the gutting 2-1 defeat to France in Saturday’s quarter-final, but for those that do, the future of Gareth Southgate is one of the central questions arising from his side’s exit from the tournament, with England’s manager saying he feels “conflicted” about his future. Jacob Steinberg writes that “Southgate sounded ready to walk away” in his post-match press conference but writes that he should “listen to Kane, Rice and Harry Maguire calling for him to stay”. Barney Ronay writes that the defeat was “that rare thing, a largely blameless exit” and argues that abuse of Southgate “is by now verging on the bizarre”.
Meanwhile, David Hytner writes that Harry Kane appeared “a hollowed-out version” of himself after his missed second penalty, but adds: “He is famously single-minded and resilient and there is no doubt he will want to get back on the pitch as soon as possible.” The only sliver of good news for the England camp was their successful adoption of Dave, a stray tabby they befriended at their training base.
Next up are the two semi-finals, Argentina against Croatia on Tuesday night and France against Morocco on Wednesday. Eric Devin and Adam White explain how Antoine Griezmann could be key to France’s prospects, while Nick Ames says that this Morocco side has “rewritten the rules of possibility” for underdogs. Will Magee writes about how the Moroccan team’s mothers have taken centre stage in their celebrations.
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The front pages
The Guardian leads with “Tories under fire over plans for military to act as ‘strike breakers’”, with warnings that British troops are being used too often to bail out ministers unable to resolve disputes. The Times says “Drafting in troops ‘won’t prevent NHS strike chaos’”, while the i goes with “Hopes raised for last-ditch talks to stop nurses’ strike”.
The Telegraph looks at the still unfolding situation in Solihull with “Children in frozen lake plunge”. The Mail headlines “Horror on the frozen lake”, while the Mirror leads with “Children in ice lake terror”.
The Financial Times report on the “Two MEPs held as Qatari corruption scandal shakes European parliament”. And the Sun has its sights set on England’s next big football tournament. It headlines “Euro Vision”, reporting on “fans plea for gaffer Gareth to stay & lead young Lions to glory in Germany”.
Today in Focus
Building for end times: the boom in bunkers
Sales of private nuclear bunkers are booming as people absorb the news of climate breakdown, nuclear threats and a global pandemic and look to secure their own survival in the event of a total breakdown in society.
Bradley Garrett, author of Bunker: What It Takes to Survive the Apocalypse, tells Hannah Moore about how he travelled to the UK, Germany, Australia, Thailand, Ukraine and across the US to tell a story about people’s preparations for calamity.
Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Ken Campbell says he doesn’t like sport – and he hadn’t attempted athletics since he was at school. But after his wife, Susan, injured her foot and was in search of a bit of moral support as she rejoined her running group, he went along to keep her company, and found himself with a new passion. At the age of 63, he ran 50km. At 70, he ran through the night to complete a 100km ultramarathon – despite his arthritis.
How does Campbell, who is also a jazz guitarist, reconcile his astonishing late passion with his professed dislike for sport? “I wouldn’t say this is a sport,” he says. “I’d call it ‘an activity.’” What he likes most about it is the feeling “of continuity: earth to feet, air to lungs, sky to vision, heart’s blood fuelling an effort that has no purpose beyond the next step across root or stone”.
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Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s crosswords to keep you entertained throughout the day – with plenty more on the Guardian’s Puzzles app for iOS and Android. Until tomorrow.
