Good morning. It’s been only 12 days since rebel groups in Syria seized 15 villages in Aleppo province under the control of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Yesterday, after an astonishing blitzkrieg campaign that has left the leading group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), commanding seven times as much territory as when it started, government forces in Damascus melted away without a fight – and the rebels took the capital.
Even as rebel fighters and civilians took selfies in the presidential palace, it was announced that Assad had fled the capital in a private plane. Last night, Russian state media said that he and his family were in Moscow and had been granted asylum on “humanitarian grounds”.
Not even the most optimistic rebels could have expected such an overwhelming and rapid victory – and while the great majority of Syrians celebrated the end of more than five decades of brutality and repression under the Assad family, many were also wondering what will come next. Today’s newsletter is a primer on what just happened, the regime that has been ousted and the stakes for the future. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
Courts in crisis | Court backlogs are forcing alleged offenders to spend up to five years in jail awaiting trial and driving innocent people to plead guilty, two prison watchdogs have revealed. The disclosures, part of a Guardian investigation into the state of the courts system, come amid warnings that the backlog in crown courts could hit 100,000 without radical action.
Ukraine | Donald Trump has called for an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine after meeting Volodymyr Zelenskyy in Paris, claiming Kyiv “would like to make a deal” to end its war with Russia. Zelenskyy said on Sunday that 43,000 Ukrainian soldiers had been killed and 370,000 wounded.
Labour | Keir Starmer’s focus on winning over voters from the centre-right has delivered Labour a large but shallow electoral win, a thinktank has warned. Polling for Compass found that more than twice as many Labour voters would consider moving to a party on the left as to one on the right.
UK weather | A cleanup operation is under way across the UK as communities survey the damage brought by Storm Darragh, which killed two people over the weekend. There were still 161,000 homes without power on Sunday afternoon.
US news | New York police have released two additional photos of the suspected shooter of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson. The pictures, which appear to have been taken in a taxi, were released as the police said they believed the suspect has left New York.
In depth: ‘Now we know our father did not die for nothing’
The last days of Assad unfolded at a dizzying pace. The rebel group leading the assault, HTS, moved quickly from their stronghold in the north-west of Syria to Aleppo, the country’s second biggest city. Then they swept south down the strategic M5 highway through Hama, meeting little resistance as they went.
Meanwhile, local armed groups on the other side of Damascus seized the moment to force government forces out of Daraa. The US-backed Syrian Democratic Forces, a Kurdish-led alliance in the east of the country, took control of the city of Deir al-Zour. And the Syrian Free Army, another group with US support, took control of the ancient city of Palmyra, to the east of the capital.
Rebels reached the suburbs of the capital by Saturday evening – the first time they had done so since 2018. In this piece on the scarcely believable pace of the advance, London School of Economics professor of international relations Fawaz Gerges tells Ruth Michaelson that it had revealed a collapse in the strength of pro-Assad forces: “I don’t think we appreciate just how much the Syrian state capacity has been degraded. The army is demoralised and starving.”
***
The fall of Damascus | Wild celebrations and a tour of Assad’s luxury cars
Even on Saturday evening, US and western officials were briefing Reuters that the government could fall “within the next week”. The Syrian army claimed to be pressing ahead with military operations around Homs, Hama and Daraa.
But by the early hours of Sunday morning, Assad was reported to have fled and rebels were advancing with no sign of serious opposition. The police headquarters was abandoned, with its doors left open, while there were many reports and videos of government soldiers hurriedly changing into civilian clothes and dispersing. Rebels declared victory on state TV, and HTS chief Abu Mohammed al-Jolani wrote on WhatsApp: “We declare the city of Damascus free from the tyrant Bashar al-Assad. To the displaced people around the world, Free Syria awaits you.” (In this moving piece, Ruth Michaelson speaks to some of those now contemplating a return to their homes.)
As day broke on Sunday, large crowds gathered in Damascus’ central squares, chanting anti-Assad slogans and honking car horns as celebratory gunfire rang out. Here is one video that gives a sense of the scale.
William Christou’s dispatch from the city is a vivid summary of the moment: rebels struggling to navigate unfamiliar territory using Google maps, and civilians overwhelmed by the change to their lives. “The tears were falling by themselves, my father, my brothers, so many people were killed,” one woman tells him. Her daughter chimes in: “Now we know our father did not die for nothing.”
Among the most indelible images of the day are those from the 510,000-square-metre presidential palace. As fires burned in some of the state rooms, opposition fighters and civilians alike wandered through opulent bathrooms and a hangar filled with luxury cars – this video is astonishing. They took selfies behind Assad’s desk and in his bedroom, and stripped away everything from pictures and bedding to a Louis Vuitton bag. Some of the remarkable images are collected here.
Some took pictures of their children even as armed rebels walked by. “I came for revenge; they oppressed us in incredible ways,” Abu Omar, 44, told Agence France-Presse. “I am taking pictures because I am so happy to be here in the middle of his house.”
***
The transition | A promising start – but fears for the future
However jubilant Syrians are today about the end of a dark chapter of their history, they know that the next is yet to be written. Because of HTS’s past relationship with al-Qaida and the human rights abuses carried out in the areas it has ruled, many are sceptical that it will act as the guarantor of a transition to a pluralist and democratic state. And Jolani himself is viewed as a terrorist by the US and others.
But some say there are reasons to be hopeful. Dareen Khalifa, a Syria expert at Crisis Group, wrote on X last week that HTS leadership had told her they were considering dissolving the group “to enable full consolidation of civilian and military structures in new institutions reflecting the breadth of Syrian society”.
Fears of reprisals came through clearly in coverage from the historically pro-government al-Watan newspaper, which hailed “a new page for Syria” and said the media should not be blamed because it “only carried out instructions”.
But on Sunday, in what appeared to be coordinated statements, Syria’s prime minister, Mohammad Ghazi al-Jalali, said that he was at his home and promised to cooperate with “any leadership chosen by the Syrian people”, while rebel leaders said that public institutions remained under the supervision of the “former prime minister”. Jolani, meanwhile, said his fighters should not harm “those who drop their weapons”, and assured women and Christians that he does not intend to impose strict Islamic law.
Whether HTS maintains that approach or is able to prevail on other factions to do the same “remains to be seen,” Khalifa wrote. “Given their history and jihadist roots, they will face a huge challenge in addressing the understandable concerns of many Syrians.”
In this analysis piece, the Economist reflects on some of the challenges that lie ahead. It notes that control of Syria is now partitioned between different rebel groups, and that “because Mr Assad’s regime collapsed far faster than they expected, they have not had time to plan for the day after.”
While Jolani appears to be a likely candidate to lead Syria in the future, the Economist adds: “Getting other rebels to accept his leadership will be the hardest task. For years he fought them more than he did Mr Assad.”
***
The Assad dynasty | Five decades of torture and mass killing
Whatever their worries about the future, even the most severe critics of HTS were overjoyed at Assad’s defeat yesterday – and reflecting on the devastating toll his family’s dynasty has taken for five decades. Assad’s father, Hafez, took power in a military coup in 1970, and used a repressive police state and indiscriminate violence to crush any sign of dissent; in 1982, an estimated 20,000 people were slaughtered as government forces razed the city of Hama in response to a Sunni rebellion.
Bashar al-Assad briefly appeared to intend a liberalisation of the Syrian system when he succeeded his father in 2000. But about a year later, he imprisoned the leaders of Syria’s pro-democracy movement, and returned to the path set out by his father. (Peter Beaumont has a superb anatomisation of his rule.)
After the uprising in 2011 that ultimately turned into a civil war, the Assad regime tortured and killed untold numbers of civilians. An estimated 307,000 civilians were killed between by the war between 2011 and 2021 – about 83 people each day – and another 100,000 disappeared. About 12 million were forced from their homes.
At just one Damascus prison, Sednaya, groups of 50 at a time were hanged in secret, once or twice a week for five years. Rebels freed hundreds from Sednaya including women and children yesterday, as this powerful video shows. There were meanwhile claims that more were trapped in hidden underground cells, and Syria’s civil defence force, the White Helmets, deployed search and rescue units to the scene. In this report, Bethan McKernan describes inmates who “emerged frail and emaciated into the bright December sunlight, greeted by weeping family members who had no idea they were still alive”.
That history is why so many Syrians were in a mood of complicated euphoria yesterday. “The feelings, they’re indescribable,” said Mohammed Ahmad, a resident of Kafr Halab, in northern Syria. “I am angry, I am happy and I am sad. But now that the regime has fallen, I can rest.”
What else we’ve been reading
It’s hard to think of a better guide to the best fiction of 2024 than Justine Jordan, who read an awful lot of it as a Booker prize judge. The writers suggesting Christmas gifts for the Observer offer some stiff competition, though: Colm Toibin, Salman Rushdie, Taffy Brodesser-Akner and Elif Shafak are among them. Archie
Serena Smith dived into the world of vintage cosmetics, speaking to collectors like Olivia White and asking them what is fuelling their passion for makeup from yesteryear. Nimo
Few journalists are greater authorities on the World Cup’s bleak relationship with human rights than Pete Pattisson. Ahead of Fifa’s likely ratification of the tournament in Saudi Arabia in 2034 this week, he sets out the lessons that have not been learned from Qatar. Archie
Eva Wiseman visits the art-filled home of Vanessa Branson (sister of Richard), where decades of collected pieces create a tapestry of personal history. “Walking through Branson’s house is like being invited backstage at an exquisite museum after hours,” she writes. Nimo
Max Read has a bleakly amusing newsletter about what the obsession with the shooting of health insurance executive Brian Thompson reveals about our cultural preoccupation with assassins: a constant stream of posts claiming to know whether the shooter was a “pro”, largely based on how hitmen behave in movies. Archie
Sport
Football | Chelsea recovered from going two goals down against Spurs to win 4-3, with two Cole Palmer penalties crucial to their victory. Earlier on Sunday, a late Bukayo Saka goal was ruled out to consign Arsenal to a 1-1 draw with Fulham, Leicester and Brighton drew 2-2 and Ipswich were beaten 2-1 by Bournemouth.
Formula One | McLaren celebrated its first Formula One constructors’ championship for 26 years after Lando Norris won the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix. Lewis Hamilton brought his Mercedes career to an end with an exceptional comeback drive, moving from 16th place to fourth.
Cricket | Ben Stokes hailed the performance of Jacob Bethell in England’s 323-run victory over New Zealand, saying that the 21-year-old had “proved why we rate him so highly”. Harry Brook and Ollie Pope also won praise for their “bravery” in pushing back against the hosts after England lost four wickets on the first morning.
The front pages
Monday’s front pages are dominated by developments in Syria and the dramatic fall of the Assad regime.
The Guardian leads with “Rebels seize Damascus as Assad flees to Moscow”. The Financial Times reports “Syria’s rebel army ousts Assad”. The Telegraph has “Assad flees to Moscow”, the Times says “Syrians hail the fall of Assad”, and i runs with “The fall of Assad”. The Mail asks “Assad is toppled...but is worse to come?” Metro strikes a similar note, with “Assad falls … but what now?” And in the Daily Express, it’s “Delight in Syria as rebels force Assad to flee to Russia.”
Elsewhere, the Mirror splashes on Prince Catherine’s kindness to a teenage photographer with terminal cancer, with ‘Kind Kate made Liz’s dreams come true’. And the Sun leads on coverage of West Ham footballer Michail Antonio’s injury in a car crash.
Today in Focus
How Trump’s victory sparked a crypto boom
Guardian US tech editor, Blake Montgomery, explains what the US president-elect’s embrace of the cryptocurrency world might mean for his second term
Cartoon of the day | Stephen Lillie
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Emma Beddington used to have a very British fear of becoming a regular, knowable to a waiter or hairdresser. “It’s not that I believe a few minutes’ boring chat with me is any kind of prize to bestow or withhold,” she protests. “It’s more that I sometimes get a panicky sense that both parties are becoming tangled in an inescapable web of social obligation.” But then everything changed, when a Venetian barista remembered her daily order on a recent long trip to the city. (“I felt like, I don’t know, George Clooney?”)
Now, Emma is reconsidering her reluctance to be recognised. “I’ve started to understand that being caught – held, actually – in a web of inescapable social obligation is life,” she says. That coffee, she realises “was a special moment: the gift of a brief sense of belonging”.
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
