Good morning. Kemi Badenoch was elected as Conservative leader over the weekend, and now has a window of about two minutes of mainstream attention before the US election devours the entire news agenda. That is not time to plot the next five years in any detail. But it doesn’t take long to observe just how stiff the challenge she faces will be.
The contest was billed as a postmortem of the election defeat – but as it played out, we don’t even know in any detail why Badenoch thinks the Tories lost. She said yesterday that the threat of Reform UK was a symptom of her party not being “consistent enough about values” – without being specific about what that would mean in practice. Meanwhile she starts with a reputation as an abrasive media performer who is firmly on the right of her party, and will soon have to decide whether to oppose public spending increases just four months after a landslide defeat.
On the other hand, as the first Black leader of a UK-wide political party, she is an undoubtedly significant figure – and her appointment already has Labour in ructions over the lack of Black representation in No 10, Jessica Elgot and Rowena Mason report. For today’s newsletter, I spoke to Henry Hill, deputy editor of ConservativeHome, about the task facing Badenoch if she is to succeed. Here are the headlines.
Five big stories
US election | In the final stretch of the presidential race, Donald Trump has said he should never have left the White House after his defeat in 2020 and joked darkly he would be fine with reporters getting shot. Meanwhile, Kamala Harris promised to work to end the war in Gaza as she attempted to appeal to Arab American and Muslim American voters in Michigan.
Europe | The pro-western incumbent Maia Sandu has won a second term in office in the Moldovan presidential election, preliminary results have shown, marking a significant boost for the country’s EU aspirations and a clear rebuke to Moscow.
Labour | Rachel Reeves has admitted she was wrong to say before the election that no major tax rises would be needed, but promised there was “no need to increase taxes further” after last week’s budget raised £40bn.
Spain | Hundreds of people have heckled Spain’s King Felipe and prime minister Pedro Sánchez – throwing mud and shouting “murderers” – as they visited an area in Valencia devastated by last week’s floods. The scenes laid bare the degree of anger among residents who feel abandoned by the authorities.
Work | One thousand workers in the UK will get extra time off with no loss of pay in the first official pilot by the four-day week campaign under the Labour government. Amid growing momentum for a shorter working week, the campaign will present its findings in the summer.
In depth: ‘She doesn’t have a mandate for any particular direction’
With the election of Kemi Badenoch, John Harris writes, the gap between Labour and Conservative diagnoses of Britain’s ills could hardly be larger: “The UK seems to be moving towards a politics that simultaneously happens on two different planets.” In Badenoch’s view, as set out in a pamphlet (pdf) published by her campaign, the country is being hamstrung by a swollen bureaucracy which is obsessed with identity politics. In theory, the choice on offer to voters versus the programme set out by Keir Starmer and Rachel Reeves last week should be a clear one.
But Badenoch has not really fleshed that out – and she has a lot to do besides staking out her political territory on the right. Here are some of the key challenges as she becomes Tory leader.
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Come up with a credible diagnosis of what went wrong
The theory of a long leadership contest was that it would provide the space for a serious reckoning with the scale of the electoral defeat. That’s not what happened in practice, Henry said. “Partly that was because the party so much wanted to avoid a repeat of 2022, with Liz Truss and Rishi Sunak hammering each other in public for months.”
To that end, the 1922 Committee instituted a “yellow card” system where any candidate who attacked a rival would be given a public dressing down by chair Bob Blackman. “But realistically, ‘blue on blue’ attacks would be how scrutiny happened,” Henry said.
In this piece on Friday, Henry wrote that Badenoch’s attempt at a pithy analysis of the party’s failure – that it “talked right, but governed left” was “a fine description of a symptom, but … falls short of a diagnosis; we’ve heard nothing about why this was, or what ‘governing right’ would look like under a Badenoch premiership”.
The result of this gap is that in her first interview as leader, with the BBC’s Laura Kuenssberg yesterday (on which she appeared with Reeves, pictured above), she was asked more about her predecessors than about her criticisms of Labour. “If you want to turn the page you need a credible explanation of what went wrong,” Henry said. “And she doesn’t seem to have one yet.”
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Flesh out her agenda and take the fight to Labour
Badenoch’s campaign was distinguished from her rival Robert Jenrick’s by the fact that, while she has been viewed as occupying similar territory on the right, she sought to present herself as a figure with at least some appeal to the party’s more moderate wing: calling his pledge to leave the European convention on human rights a “distraction from bigger worries”, for example.
She has also said that she will “lead by consensus”. Which sounds fine, obviously – but, said Henry, “she submarined her way through this contest. The problem is that there is no consensus about the party’s direction”. The ECHR is a case in point.
During the campaign, Badenoch declined to lay out a policy programme, saying to ConservativeHome: “there’s going to be an internal party policy review if I do win, but there’s also going to be a second track of just being a good opposition.”
In her Kuenssberg interview, she promised to tell “hard truths”, and she had one particularly bracing observation: “as a country we are getting poorer and older”. That might be the kernel of a coherent Conservative attack on the affordability of Labour’s plans, but it’s not exactly an optimistic message, and because she didn’t lay out the detail during the campaign, many of her supporters may not quite have understood what they’ve signed up for.
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Assemble a plausible team
Badenoch started to assemble her shadow cabinet last night with the appointment of Rebecca Harris as chief whip. But the electoral defeat was so heavy that by the time she’s finished, the frontbenches may be busier than the back ones. As Peter Walker points out in this analysis, there are 124 Labour MPs with government jobs – which is more than the total number of Tories returned to parliament.
“You arguably only need people in key positions,” Henry said, because so much of the job of opposition is appearing in the media. “But the result does mean that there is potentially a talent issue. She won’t be able to afford many resignations, and the shadow cabinet will have to be a broad church.”
Its members will know that it is hard for her to get rid of them, and they will hail from all wings of the party – which may make enforcing any sweeping changes to the party’s platform a serious challenge. Also, other than semi-retired grandees and the class of 2024, anyone who doesn’t get in when the field is so thin is likely to be seriously cheesed off.
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Revitalise the party
One worrying feature of the leadership contest for the Conservatives: the size of the electorate. Just 95,849 people voted, against 141,725 in 2022 and 256,857 back in 2001: that change is a result of a long-term decline in membership, and a fair number of party members being less fussed about choosing a leader of the opposition than a prime minister.
The decline in party identification is not just a Conservative problem – but its membership does skew older, and so the question is a more urgent one.
“We’re not really a society that joins things much any more,” said Henry. “But the party needs activists – crucially, it needs those more than it needs headline membership. It needs people who’ll actually campaign, collect data, organise.”
In her ConservativeHome interview, Badenoch said there was a “unique opportunity to turn our party into a mass membership organisation … that attracts people of all ages.” But she was short on specifics about how, saying it would need a lot of “deep thinking” and consultation. Figuring this out should “absolutely be a priority”, Henry said, along with reforming CCHQ.
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Lose her reputation for combustibility
When Badenoch’s campaign did get the headlines, it wasn’t for ideal reasons: her most high profile intervention was her suggestion that maternity pay is “excessive”. Just as notable was the way she reacted to coverage: she denied saying something which most fair-minded observers thought she clearly did, and added: “I don’t shy from difficult topics, but I won’t be misrepresented.”
Badenoch has a bit of a record of this sort of thing, and a reputation for picking fights with no discernible political benefit. Is she too abrasive to be a successful leader? “We’ll have to see,” Henry said. “There’s definitely been concern about her historic lack of enthusiasm for media, given that Leader of the opposition is in large part a media role.” If Labour descends into civil war over the next few years, he pointed out, it may be more effective to stay above the fray – especially as “voters have Reform and the Lib Dems to consider if they reach 2029 unhappy with the government”.
A related problem: “There are also party management implications for someone not having or building a large number of personal loyalists, as we’ve seen before.” The question of what voters will think of her is obviously crucial, in other words – but there are many mountains to climb before that one.
What else we’re reading
I am a sucker for a good journalistic wheeze, and making the Guardian’s culture critics and sports writers swap jobs for the day is an absolute classic. Alexis Petridis (above) at Brighton v Wolves? Barney Ronay at the opera? Come on! Archie
ICYMI: After Stephen Yaxley-Lennon – better known as Tommy Robinson – was imprisoned again, Harriet Sherwood and Ben Quinn examine his ascent as the most prominent, and perhaps most enduring, figure of the British far right. Nimo
Temporarily sate your anxious appetite for US election content with Saturday magazine’s superb photographs of pivotal presidential moments, introduced by Jonathan Freedland. Not even Beyoncé endorsing Kamala Harris has quite the punch of Lauren Bacall sitting on Harry Truman’s piano. Archie
On those endorsements: Kamala Harris and Donald Trump have both been rolling them out. However, as Adrian Horton writes, securing the coveted A-list seal of approval can be a double-edged sword. Nimo
Julian Borger has written a fascinating primer on the ultranationalist Israeli broadcaster, Channel 14. The popular channel has faced allegations of inciting war crimes, including genocide. Nimo
Sport
Football | Chelsea held Manchester United to a 1-1 draw thanks to a stunning goal from Moises Caicedo, pictured above. Elsewhere, two goals from Dominic Solanke helped Spurs come from behind to win 4-1 against Aston Villa.
Formula One | Max Verstappen won the São Paulo Grand Prix after coming from 17th on the grid, leaving his the title hopes of his rival, Lando Norris, in tatters. “I never thought I would win today,” said the defending champion.
Tennis | Katie Boulter’s strong run in Hong Kong came to a brutal end on Sunday as she was thoroughly outplayed in the final by top seed Diana Shnaider, who dismantled the British No 1 6-1, 6-2 to win her fourth WTA title of the season.
The front pages
Attention is turning toward Tuesday’s US presidential election, with the Guardian leading with “Harris and Trump make final push in swing states”. The i says “Britons hope for Harris win – but most think Trump will be US president”.
The Times leads with entrepreneur James Dyson’s view of the government’s tax and spending plans, with “Dyson blasts ‘spiteful’ budget”, while the Telegraph covers inheritance tax changes with “Reeves – We can’t afford farmers to die tax-free”. The Express covers Reeves’ BBC interview yesterday with “I was wrong to say that I wouldn’t put up taxes”.
The Mail says Kemi Badenoch is “A leader who knows how to get Britain’s economy booming!”, while the Sun splashes with a story on the condition of Prince Andrew’s home, headlined: “Grand mould Duke of York”. In the Financial Times, the top story is “Chinese tax crackdown threatens to deal new blow to investor confidence”. And the Mirror claims a world exclusive on “Lord Lucan’s murder weapon”.
Today in Focus
Can Kemi Badenoch make the Tories electable again?
The Spectator columnist Isabel Hardman explains how Badenoch’s background has shaped her principles. From a childhood in Nigeria to university in the UK to working at the Spectator where, Hardman says, it was clear she had “huge ambition”.
Cartoon of the day | Edith Pritchett
The Upside
A bit of good news to remind you that the world’s not all bad
Paintings in Hospitals (PiH), as its name suggests, is a charity dedicated to providing art to hospitals, health centres, surgeries, and hospices. PiH distributes its collection of 3,500 works and prints-including pieces by Andy Warhol, Maggi Hambling, and Bridget Riley-to medical settings across the country, offering patients and doctors a source of reprieve and comfort.
The charity has published a book, Lifting the Clouds, which features interviews with numerous individuals about the “invaluable” benefits of viewing art. “Our research clearly shows art helps health,” says PiH chief executive Sandra Bruce-Gordon. Another study by University College London supported PiH’s findings: the research, involving 6,700 adults over age 50, found that exposure to paintings reduced anxiety and depression and contributed to longer lifespans.
One person shared anonymously: “I’m receiving chemo and wanted to let you know how lovely it is to have art in the waiting area. It reminds me that there is life after cancer.”
Bored at work?
And finally, the Guardian’s puzzles are here to keep you entertained throughout the day. Until tomorrow.
