Moderna stock skidded Tuesday on a mixed update for its messenger RNA-based flu vaccine.
At the interim analysis, there hadn't been enough cases of influenza among participants to determine, statistically, whether the vaccine met the goals of the study. As a result, Moderna will continue the test. The company needs at least 200 cases of flu, RBC Capital Markets analyst Luca Issi said in a note to clients.
On the stock market today, Moderna stock toppled 3.1%, ending the regular session at 155.25.
Moderna Stock: Promising Signs For Flu Shot
Despite the interim disappointment, there are signs the vaccine is working, RBC's Issi said.
Moderna is running two Phase 3 studies of its flu shot — one in the Northern Hemisphere and one in the Southern. The company is testing its experimental vaccine against a licensed shot.
In newly announced Northern Hemisphere data, Moderna said its vaccine outperformed the licensed shot when targeting strain A versions of influenza. Against strain B, Moderna said its vaccine appears to be on par with the traditional vaccine. In contrast, in previously announced Southern Hemisphere data, Moderna's shot beat out the standard vaccine in strain A, but missed in strain B.
RBC's Issi kept his outperform rating and 200 price target on Moderna stock. On the flip side, SVB Securities analyst Mani Foroohar has an underperform rating on shares. He noted, however, Moderna is currently working on an updated version of the shot that could improve on strain B effectiveness. It plans to begin a confirmatory study of that updated vaccine later this month.
"This development makes sense to us, as shortcomings in (Moderna's flu vaccine) clinical profile have been evident for some time," Foroohar said in his note to clients.
What's Behind Moderna's Outlook?
Moderna could offer more details during its Vaccine Day event on Tuesday.
Foroohar says it will be important to determine whether Moderna expects a delay in commercializing the current flu vaccine based on Tuesday's interim readout.
"Beyond influenza, we will be listening for the rationale behind Moderna's $8 billion to $15 billion respiratory vaccine product sales estimate for 2023, as well as support for the projected operating margin profile of $6 billion to $8 billion on the same time horizon," he said.
The news pushed Moderna stock below its 50-day moving average, according to MarketSmith.com.
Follow Allison Gatlin on Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.
