Moderna stock took a beating in January after the company slashed its outlook for 2024 and 2025 and missed the mark in a cytomegalovirus study.
The company now expects $3 billion to $3.1 billion in 2024 sales — a cut of $400 million from the topside of its previous guidance — and $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion in 2025 sales. Previously, Moderna projected $2.5 billion to $3.5 billion in sales for that year.
William Blair analyst Myles Minter called Moderna stock a "show-me story." Leerink Partners analyst Mani Foroohar says there's "no inflection in sight."
But Moderna shares later surged after Oracle Chairman Larry Ellison called out the speed with which cancer vaccines could be developed using artificial intelligence. His comments came during a meeting in which President Donald Trump announced a $500 million investment in AI infrastructure. Moderna is developing a cancer vaccine with Merck.
Meanwhile, an independent data monitoring committee said the company's vaccine to protect against cytomegalovirus, or CMV, didn't show strong enough effectiveness to stop an ongoing study early. CMV is related to the viruses that cause chickenpox, herpes and mononucleosis.
Earlier in the month, Moderna stock popped after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention noted a two-week spike in positive Covid tests. The news suggests a later-than-usual Covid season, which could be a boon for Covid vaccination rates.
So, all in all, is Moderna stock a buy or a sell today?
Moderna Stock Faces Declining Expectations
Sales expectations for Moderna have come down markedly over the last year.
For the fourth quarter, analysts polled by FactSet currently project $973 million in sales. But the company's guidance suggests sales will actually come in much lighter than that, at $780 million.
Similarly, Moderna's guidance for 2025 suggests analysts will need to reduce their expectations for the year. Even the higher end of the company's outlook for $2.5 billion lags calls for $2.71 billion.
"While the third quarter represented an encouraging start to the company's redesigned path on the cost-cutting side, today's updates seemingly cloud the trajectory," William Blair's Minter said in a Jan. 13 report to clients.
Moderna stock fell by double digits.
Expanding The Portfolio
The company is working hard to expand its portfolio.
Moderna's technology focuses on helping the body create specific messenger RNA, or mRNA. When the mRNA sees a specific target in the body — like the spike protein on the coronavirus that causes Covid — it latches on, preventing the virus from spreading in the body.
Today, Moderna sells just two products: its Covid vaccine called Spikevax — a rival to Comirnaty from Pfizer and BioNTech, and Nuvaxovid from Novavax — and the respiratory syncytial virus vaccine called mResvia. Also called RSV, the virus causes cold-like symptoms in most people but can be deadly in people with compromised immune systems.
Moderna expects the Food and Drug Administration to make an approval decision on its next-generation Covid vaccine in late May. The company is also working to expand its RSV vaccine to people younger than age 60 and expects to have pivotal test data from its norovirus vaccine later this year.
Further, Moderna is working on a cancer vaccine in partnership with Merck. In this case, the mRNA grabs onto a specific target bespoke to each patient's cancer. The companies are testing the cancer vaccine in combination with Merck's blockbuster drug, Keytruda. Moderna stock surged more than 8% after Oracle's Ellison said mRNA-based cancer vaccines could be developed in under 48 hours with the help of AI.
But sales are expected to hit a floor this year, with profitability, on a strict, as-reported basis, not called for until 2029.
Moderna Stock's Bearish Ratings
Moderna stock is showing bearish fundamentals and technicals.
First, shares are trading below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, according to MarketSurge. Second, the stock is not forming a base for investors to watch. Even if it does, it will likely face a ceiling at its key moving averages.
Shares also have a poor IBD Digital Relative Strength Rating of 3. This means Moderna stock ranks in the bottom 3% of all stocks when it comes to 12-month performance. Moderna shares also have a low Composite Rating of 14, putting them in the bottom one-fifth of all stocks when it comes to technical and fundamental measures.
Its EPS Rating is its highest rating at 58. But Moderna is on track for years of losses. The company is working on cutting its costs and now expects to reduce its costs by $1 billion this year and $500 million next year.
Moderna stock peaked at 497.49 in August 2021, at the height of the Covid pandemic. Since then, the stock has fallen precipitously, down 92% over the past four years.
Is Moderna Stock A Buy Or A Sell?
Despite a promising move after the CDC put out Covid test news and after Ellison noted the potential for AI in cancer vaccine development, Moderna stock isn't a buy.
In fact, shares were definitively a sell on Jan. 13 when they tumbled below their 50-day line.
It could take several years for Moderna's pipeline to really pan out, analysts say. In the meantime, its Covid vaccine has yet to hit a bottom and its RSV vaccine is coming from behind in competition with Pfizer and GSK.
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Follow Allison Gatlin on X/Twitter at @IBD_AGatlin.
