Moderna stock yo-yoed in the aftermath of its fourth-quarter report as investors digested the profit miss and Chief Executive Stephane Bancel's comments on Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kennedy, or RFK Jr., was confirmed as Secretary of the Department of Health and Human Services on Feb. 13. He now heads up the agency that oversees the Food and Drug Administration, the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention and the National Institutes of Heath.
RFK Jr. is a widely known vaccine critic. After his confirmation, he doubled down on his incorrect view that there aren't safety studies on most vaccines. Moderna, a vaccine maker, has seen its shares fall since President Donald Trump announced his plan to appoint RFK Jr. to the role.
Moderna also reported steep losses for the fourth quarter, but topped sales expectations. The company kept its sales outlook for 2025.
Earlier in the year, Moderna stock got a boost after Larry Ellison, Oracle's chairman, touted the benefits of artificial intelligence in developing new medicines, including cancer vaccines. Moderna is working with Merck to develop a cancer vaccine.
Moderna also recently inked a supply deal for its Covid vaccine, Spikevax, in Europe.
But Moderna missed its mark in a study of its cytomegalovirus vaccine. Cytomegalovirus, or CMV, often doesn't carry symptoms. But it can cause fever, sore throat, swollen glands, stomach pain and jaundice.
So, all in all, is Moderna stock a buy or a sell today?
Moderna Stock Faces A Mixed Report
During the fourth quarter, Moderna lost $2.91 per share on $$966 million in sales. Losses flipped from a year-earlier gain of 55 cents and missed forecasts for a narrower loss. Sales beat forecasts, but fell 66% year over year.
Both its products — Covid vaccine Spikevax and the respiratory syncytial virus vaccine called mResvia — beat sales projections. Spikevax generated $923 million in sales, ahead of calls for $909 million, while mResvia brought in $15 million in sales. Analysts polled by FactSet forecasted $13 million.
Moderna kept its outlook for 2025. It expects $1.5 billion to $2.5 billion in sales this year. The midpoint of the guidance is far below analysts' call for $2.32 billion.
"While the third quarter represented an encouraging start to the company's redesigned path on the cost-cutting side, today's updates seemingly cloud the trajectory," William Blair's Minter said in a Jan. 13 report to clients following Moderna's presentation at the J.P. Morgan Healthcare Conference.
Moderna stock fell by 17% that day.
Expanding The Portfolio
The company is working hard to expand its portfolio.
Moderna's technology focuses on helping the body create specific messenger RNA, or mRNA. When the mRNA sees a specific target in the body — like the spike protein on the coronavirus that causes Covid — it latches on, preventing the virus from spreading in the body.
Today, Moderna sells just two products: its Covid vaccine called Spikevax — a rival to Comirnaty from Pfizer and BioNTech, and Nuvaxovid from Novavax — and the RSV vaccine called mResvia. RSV causes cold-like symptoms in most people but can be deadly in people with compromised immune systems.
Moderna expects the Food and Drug Administration to make an approval decision on its next-generation Covid vaccine in late May. The company is also working to expand its RSV vaccine to adults younger than age 60 and expects to have pivotal test data from its norovirus vaccine later this year.
Further, Moderna is working on a cancer vaccine in partnership with Merck. In this case, the mRNA grabs onto a specific target bespoke to each patient's cancer. The companies are testing the cancer vaccine in combination with Merck's blockbuster drug, Keytruda. Moderna stock surged more than 8% after Oracle's Ellison said mRNA-based cancer vaccines could be developed in under 48 hours with the help of AI.
But sales are expected to hit a floor this year, with profitability, on a strict, as-reported basis, not called for until 2029.
Moderna Stock's Bearish Ratings
Moderna stock is showing bearish fundamentals and technicals.
First, shares are trading below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages, according to MarketSurge. Second, the stock is not forming a base for investors to watch. Even if it does, it will likely face a ceiling at its key moving averages.
Shares also have a poor IBD Digital Relative Strength Rating of 4. This means Moderna stock ranks in the bottom 4% of all stocks when it comes to 12-month performance. Moderna shares also have a low Composite Rating of 17, putting them in the bottom one-fifth of all stocks when it comes to technical and fundamental measures.
Its EPS Rating is its highest rating at 59. But Moderna is on track for years of losses. The company is working on cutting its costs and now expects to reduce its costs by $1 billion this year and $500 million next year.
Moderna stock peaked at 497.49 in August 2021, at the height of the Covid pandemic. Since then, the stock has fallen precipitously, down 93% over the past four years.
Is Moderna Stock A Buy Or A Sell?
Despite a promising move after Ellison noted the potential for AI in cancer vaccine development, Moderna stock isn't a buy.
In fact, shares were definitively a sell on Jan. 13 when they tumbled below their 50-day line.
It could take several years for Moderna's pipeline to really pan out, analysts say. In the meantime, its Covid vaccine has yet to hit a bottom and its RSV vaccine is coming from behind in competition with Pfizer and GSK.
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Follow Allison Gatlin on X/Twitter at @AGatlin_IBD.
