We are less than two days from Opening Day, so now’s the perfect time for Sports Illustrated’s predictions for the 2022 season. For the first time, the postseason will feature 12 teams (six from each league), with the top two division winners from the American and National League earning first-round byes.
Does the expanded playoff field give the Mariners a chance at ending the longest playoff drought in major North American professional sports? Will the Angels finally get to the playoffs with Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani? Can the Braves become the first team since 2000 to repeat as World Series champions? Will Freddie Freeman win his second consecutive title, this time with the Dodgers? What about the Yankees, Blue Jays and Mets? Our writers weighed all of these questions and others when making their picks.
O.K., that’s enough of this intro. Let’s take a look at the predictions:
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Tom Verducci
American League:
East Winner: Yankees (3)
Central Winner: White Sox (1)
West Winner : Astros (2)
Wild Card 1: Rays (4)
Wild-Card 2: Angels (5)
Wild-Card 3: Blue Jays (6)
Tom’s Take: The AL East is one bear of a division that might be decided by how much each team beats up on Baltimore. The Yankees, Rays, Blue Jays and Red Sox all look like 90–95 win teams. Chicago and Houston have terrific starting pitching and easier schedules to pile up the wins.
National League:
East Winner: Mets (2)
Central Winner: Brewers (3)
West Winner: Dodgers (1)
Wild-Card 1: Braves (4)
Wild-Card 2: Cardinals (5)
Wild-Card 3: Giants (6)
Tom’s Take: Don’t overthink it. The Dodgers are that good—and they have prospects on the mound and infield that will fortify the roster in the second half. The Giants were no fluke last year.
AL Playoffs:
Wild-Card Series A: Yankees over Blue Jays
Wild-Card Series B: Rays over Angels
Division Series A: Rays over White Sox
Division Series B: Astros over Yankees
Championship Series: Rays over Astros
Tom’s Take: The Rays have plenty of playoff experience to ride their deep, talented roster. Wander Franco becomes the most dominant player in the AL playoffs.
NL Playoffs:
Wild-Card Series A: Brewers over Giants
Wild-Card Series B: Braves over Cardinals
Division Series A: Dodgers over Braves
Division Series B: Mets over Brewers
Championship Series: Dodgers over Mets
Tom’s Take: East meets West. One luxury tax titan vs. another. The NLCS is a star-studded bonanza with premier starting pitching. The Dodgers get a slight edge with a bit deeper lineup.
World Series:
Matchup: Rays over Dodgers in seven games
World Series MVP: Wander Franco
Tom’s Take: The Rays have had a championship-worthy team for two seasons. It’s time for them to finish it off, especially if they swing a midseason deal to grab a veteran starter pitcher.
Scott Taetsch/USA TODAY Sports
Stephanie Apstein
American League:
East Winner: Blue Jays (1)
Central Winner: White Sox (2)
West Winner : Astros (3)
Wild-Card 1: Rays (4)
Wild-Card 2: Red Sox (5)
AL Wild-Card 3: Yankees (6)
Stephanie’s Take: The AL East is stacked. Those teams will suffer some from having to face one another, but they also all get to play the Orioles 19 times.
National League:
East Winner: Braves (2)
Central Winner: Cardinals (3)
West Winner: Dodgers (1)
Wild-Card 1: Giants (4)
Wild-Card 2: Brewers (5)
Wild-Card 3: Mets (6)
Stephanie’s Take: The Dodgers’ pitching is suspect, but that lineup will be able to win a lot of 8–7 games.
AL Playoffs:
Wild-Card Series A: Yankees over Astros
Wild0Card Series B: Rays over Red Sox
Division Series A: Blue Jays over Yankees
Division Series B: Rays over White Sox
Championship Series: Blue Jays over Rays
Stephanie’s Take: It’s dangerous to pick against the Rays, but that Blue Jays lineup is going to make opponents cry.
NL Playoffs:
Wild-Card Series A: Mets over Cardinals
Wild-Card Series B: Giants over Brewers
Division Series A: Dodgers over Mets
Division Series B: Giants over Braves
Championship Series: Giants over Dodgers
Stephanie’s Take: We deserve to see this series again, for longer this time.
World Series:
Matchup: Blue Jays over Giants in six games
World Series MVP: Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
Stephanie’s Take: After two awful years for Blue Jays fans—the team was good and fun and they barely got to see it play in person—the squad will make them forget about it all.
Wendell Cruz/USA TODAY Sports
Emma Baccellieri
American League:
East Winner: Rays (1)
Central Winner: White Sox (3)
West Winner : Astros (2)
Wild-Card 1: Blue Jays (4)
AL Wild-Card 2: Twins (5)
AL Wild-Card 3: Angels (6)
Emma’s Take: The division I found most curious here was the Central. Ultimately, Chicago still feels too strong to pick against for a second straight division title … but Minnesota comes really close to throwing that off, and if the front office had added just one more starting pitcher, I might have picked differently. (And this Twins lineup is strong enough that I still wouldn’t be surprised at all to see them take over, anyway!) Meanwhile, Detroit is also building something really interesting that I’m excited to watch, and I appreciate that Kansas City has raised its floor, too, even if it’s not to a level of legit contention. In short: This division should be much more fun to watch than it has been the last few years.
National League:
East Winner: Braves (3)
Central Winner: Brewers (2)
West Winner: Dodgers (1)
Wild-Card 1: Giants (4)
Wild-Card 2: Phillies (5)
Wild-Card 3: Cardinals (6)
Emma’s Take: The one team I ended up leaving out here that I would still really like to see with a playoff spot? The Marlins. Their young core of starting pitching is phenomenal, and I appreciate some of the efforts they’ve made to bolster the lineup. But in an NL East where the Braves look equipped for another deep run, the Mets have stocked up in a big way and the Phillies are right in that mix, too—the competition just strikes me as too stiff. Yet I’d love to see Miami prove me wrong!
AL Playoffs:
Wild-Card Series A: White Sox over Angels
Wild-Card Series B: Blue Jays over Twins
Division Series A: Blue Jays over Rays
Division Series B: Astros over White Sox
Championship Series: Blue Jays over Astros
Emma’s Take: The Blue Jays are here, and I can’t wait. After standing out as one of the most fun teams to watch in 2021, they’re primed for a serious run in 2022, as their young talent continues to develop alongside some splashy pick-ups. Adding Matt Chapman at third should make this infield a defensive delight, and Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi in the rotation should blunt the loss of reigning Cy Young winner Robbie Ray. I went back and forth over whether to put Toronto on top of the AL East—Tampa Bay is still really, really good (and don’t discount New York, either!). But regardless of how the division shakes out in the regular season, when it comes to October, I think the likeliest team to make some noise is the Blue Jays.
NL Playoffs:
Wild-Card Series A: Braves over Cardinals
Wild-Card Series B: Giants over Phillies
Division Series A: Dodgers over Giants
Division Series B: Brewers over Braves
Championship Series: Dodgers over Brewers
Emma’s Take: This Brewers pitching staff is a wonder: You can make a case that Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff and Freddy Peralta are the toughest one-two-three punch in MLB, and the bullpen is just as serious. Watching them build on their fantastic pitching from last year should be a treat. But there are still some questions about this lineup—namely, what are they going to get from Christian Yelich?—and so it feels tricky to pick them making it all the way to the World Series, particularly against a force like the Dodgers.
World Series:
Matchup: Dodgers over Blue Jays in six games
World Series MVP: Mookie Betts
Emma’s Take: It feels almost boring to pick the Dodgers as the best team in baseball (again). Yet … they’ve made it hard not to! (Adding Freddie Freeman will do that.) They’re deep, they’re well-rounded and another deep run isn’t inevitable, but it sure feels close to that.
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Will Laws
American League:
East Winner: Blue Jays (1)
Central Winner: White Sox (2)
West Winner : Mariners (3)
Wild-Card 1: Rays (4)
Wild-Card 2: Astros (5)
AL Wild-Card 3: Yankees (6)
Will’s Take: I expect the Blue Jays will acquire relief help in the summer to shore up their only weakness and emerge from a loaded AL East. The White Sox should be safe in a weak Central division, albeit one that should be stronger than last year’s edition that featured four sub-.500 teams. And yes, I think the Mariners will have done just enough to unseat the Correa-less Astros in the West, as Jerry Dipoto seems to realize Seattle needs to go starting pitcher shopping at the deadline. The Jesse Winker–Eugenio Suárez trade qualifies as a heist, and combined with contributions from talented youngsters Jarred Kelenic and Julio Rodríguez should give the M’s enough offense to snap their 20-season playoff drought. Boston just misses out due to concerns about the rotation.
National League:
East Winner: Braves (2)
Central Winner: Brewers (3)
West Winner: Dodgers (1)
Wild-Card 1: Phillies (4)
Wild-Card 2: Padres (5)
Wild-Card 3: Mets (6)
Will’s Take: I was going to pick the Mets to snap the Braves’ streak of four straight division titles before Jacob deGrom’s injury news broke. Their outlook will grow quite dire if Max Scherzer goes down, too. Dave Dombrowski has seemingly done enough to improve a Phillies bullpen that sunk the team’s fortunes the last two seasons, and pairing Kyle Schwarber and Nick Castellanos with Bryce Harper, Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto should provide plentiful power to overcome what will perhaps be MLB’s worst defense. I’m banking on San Diego’s rotation to prove worthy of the hype one year later to compensate for the early absence of Fernando Tatis Jr. All due respect to what the Giants accomplished last year, but just as everything seemed to go right for them in 2021, this spring has already brought a few untimely injuries, and I’m not going to bet on another banner year without Buster Posey behind the plate.
AL Playoffs:
Wild-Card Series A: Yankees over Mariners
Wild-Card Series B: Rays over Astros
Division Series A: Blue Jays over Yankees
Division Series B: Rays over White Sox
Championship Series: Blue Jays over Rays
Will’s Take: Tampa Bay is perfectly suited to mix and match relievers over a shorter series, and could frustrate the White Sox’s righty-heavy lineup with their parade of right-handed flamethrowers out of the ‘pen. But the Rays have repeatedly gotten exposed during seven-game battles against teams with certified aces. The Blue Jays qualify after replacing Robbie Ray with Kevin Gausman and Yusei Kikuchi. They also boast the AL’s most powerful offense, and could even benefit from the policy preventing unvaccinated opponents from playing in Toronto. After missing the playoffs by one game last season, 2022 could end up as the perfect year for the Jays to represent the AL in the World Series.
NL Playoffs:
Wild-Card Series A: Mets over Brewers
Wild-Card Series B: Padres over Phillies
Division Series A: Dodgers over Mets
Division Series B: Braves over Padres
Championship Series: Dodgers over Braves
Will’s Take: How does a fourth playoff matchup in the last five years between the Braves and Dodgers sound? This one would have some extra spice with Freddie Freeman, Kenley Jansen and Craig Kimbrel all switching sides from their former spots in this budding cross-division rivalry. The potential return of Dustin May could give Los Angeles just enough pitching depth to advance. Leading up to that, Brewers-Mets would be an awesome pitching matchup featuring five Opening Day starters from the last two years (Corbin Burnes, Brandon Woodruff, Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer, Chris Bassitt). I think New York’s reworked offense would be the difference there.
World Series:
Matchup: Dodgers over Blue Jays in six games
World Series MVP: Freddie Freeman
Will’s Take: Joc Pederson won consecutive World Series by going from the Dodgers to the Braves. Maybe Freeman can pull the same trick by taking the opposite route. I loved the A.J. Pollock–Craig Kimbrel trade for both sides, but I think it would especially pay dividends for the Dodgers in a matchup like this. Even if the Blue Jays get a good reliever or two at the deadline, they wouldn’t be able to match up with the current configuration of arms set to take the mound for Los Angeles—and you have to figure Andrew Friedman has a difference-making pitcher in mind to acquire at the deadline to add to the arsenal.
Jayne Kamin-Oncea/USA TODAY Sports
Matt Martell
American League:
East Winner: Blue Jays (1)
Central Winner: White Sox (3)
West Winner : Angels (2)
Wild-Card 1: Yankees (4)
Wild-Card 2: Astros (5)
Wild-Card 3: Mariners (6)
Matt’s Take: There are 10 teams I could see making the playoffs in the American League: along with these six, the Rays, Red Sox, Twins and, yes, the Tigers. The Blue Jays are the most complete team, the White Sox are the best team in the worst division and the Angels, so long as Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani and Anthony Rendon stay healthy, will win the West. The Yankees didn’t improve as much as fans would’ve liked this offseason, but they did get much better on defense, and you should expect that bounce-back years from DJ LeMahieu and Gleyber Torres will go a long way toward making this lineup more consistent. The Astros are going to miss Carlos Correa but are still good enough to win 90 games.
Then there are the Mariners, who have had one of the most productive offseasons, even if their moves didn’t generate the same buzz as the ones some other teams made. They added big-time bats Eugenio Suárez and Jesse Winker in their trade (read: robbery) with the Reds, and they acquired Adam Frazier, who was the NL’s starting second baseman in the All-Star Game last year. They signed AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray, and top prospect Julio Rodríguez made the Opening Day Roster. SI’s Greg Bishop was right last year when he said, “These Mariners Ain’t Going Away.” They’ll break their two-decade playoff drought this year and make a deep October run in 2023.
National League:
East Winner: Braves (1)
Central Winner: Cardinals (2)
West Winner: Dodgers (2)
Wild-Card 1: Giants (4)
Wild-Card 2: Brewers (5)
Wild-Card 3: Phillies (6)
Matt’s Take: There is a noticeable, Big Apple–sized omission here. The Mets won’t make the playoffs without Jacob deGrom making at least 15 starts, and I don’t know if they can bank on his return until June. Even then, everything would have to go right for the Mets. They’ll be in the race all the way, but something else is bound to go wrong, and they’ll fall just short. I am so ready to see the City of Big Boi Brotherly Love make the playoffs for the first time since 2011. Their defense is horrid, but they have improved their once-dreadful bullpen and have two Cy Young contenders in the rotation. Plus, they’ll absolutely rake. I’ve got the Braves earning the top seed over the Dodgers because I like Atlanta’s pitching a little bit better.
AL Playoffs:
Wild-Card Series A: White Sox over Mariners
Wild-Card Series B: Yankees over Astros
Division Series A: Blue Jays over Yankees
Division Series B: Angels over White Sox
Championship Series: Angels over Blue Jays
Matt’s Take: Now we’re getting spicy. I’m picking the Angels partly because it would be fun to see them advance through the AL, and partly because I’m really buying them. They’ve made significant improvements in their bullpen this offseason—Ryan Tepera, Aaron Loup and Archie Bradley—to go along with one of the league’s best closers, Raisel Iglesias, whom they acquired from the Reds in December 2020. I’m much higher on their rotation than others. They’re going with a six-man rotation: Patrick Sandoval, Noah Syndergaard, José Suarez, Michael Lorenzen and top prospect Reid Detmers. The purpose is to better accommodate Ohtani’s two-way routine, but also to keep their young pitchers and Syndergaard, who is returning from injury, healthy for a full season. That could help them come October, when their pitchers could be less fatigued at a time when burnout becomes a factor. The AL pennant will come down to the Blue Jays, Yankees and Angels, and, in the end, I’m giving the edge to the team with the two best players in baseball.
NL Playoffs:
Wild-Card Series A: Cardinals over Phillies
Wild-Card Series B: Giants over Brewers
Division Series A: Giants over Braves
Division Series B: Dodgers over Cardinals
Championship Series: Dodgers over Giants
Matt’s Take: As Steph said, we deserve to see the Dodgers and Giants again in the postseason, this time in the seven-game championship series. This one could go either way, but I’m picking the Dodgers to set up an epic World Series.
World Series:
Matchup: Angels over Dodgers in seven games
World Series MVP: Shohei Ohtani
Matt’s Take: Baseball’s best team meets its most fun club. And you know what? I’m going with fun winning out here. Twenty years ago, the Angels beat a superior NL West team (the Giants) to win their first World Series title. This time, they’ll win their second against the Dodgers, with Ohtani being the obvious MVP pick for winning two games on the bump and raking at the plate.
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Nick Selbe
American League:
East Winner: Rays (1)
Central Winner: White Sox (3)
West Winner : Astros (2)
Wild-Card 1: Blue Jays (4)
Wild-Card 2: Yankees (5)
Wild-Card 3: Angels (6)
Nick’s Take: The Blue Jays had a flashier offseason, and I expect them to be quite strong. But the Rays have a .615 winning percentage over the last three seasons because they’re better at acquiring and developing depth than any other organization. I can’t envision the AL East providing all three wild card teams, so I’ll give the last slot to the Angels as a way to put some good mojo into the universe and hopefully get Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani into the tournament.
National League:
East Winner: Braves (2)
Central Winner: Brewers (3)
West Winner: Dodgers (1)
Wild-Card 1: Mets (4)
Wild-Card 2: Padres (5)
Wild-Card 3: Giants (6)
Nick’s Take: The Dodgers will reclaim their perch atop the NL West, but I have the Giants snagging the final wild-card spot over the Cardinals, Phillies and Marlins. Matt Olson won’t make Braves fans forget about Freddie Freeman, but he’ll anchor what should be a strong lineup and win over hearts in Atlanta soon enough. The Mets will make it a good division race, and they’ll still sneak into the field as a wild card.
AL Playoffs:
Wild Card Series A: Angels over White Sox
Wild Card Series B: Blue Jays over Yankees
Division Series A: Rays over Angels
Division Series B: Blue Jays over Astros
Championship Series: Rays over Blue Jays
Nick’s Take: What a fun series this would be. Toronto is extremely talented and more than good enough to win the whole thing. But I’ll give the Rays the edge for their recent track record of having a deep stable of arms to rely upon in high-leverage situations, which is even more useful in a playoff series.
NL Playoffs:
Wild-Card Series A: Brewers over Giants
Wild-Card Series B: Mets over Padres
Division Series A: Dodgers over Mets
Division Series B: Brewers over Braves
Championship Series: Brewers over Dodgers
Nick’s Take: The Dodgers’ lineup is among the best we’ve seen in recent memory, but Milwaukee’s pitching staff has the top-end talent to neutralize it. The Brewers have plenty of firepower to win the pennant, especially if Christian Yelich can rediscover his old form. At present, the Dodgers’ rotation leaves a little to be desired, which is why I give the slightest of edges to the Brew Crew.
World Series:
Matchup: Rays over Brewers in seven games
World Series MVP: Wander Franco
Nick’s Take: The Rays will win two games using at least six pitchers, while the Brewers will win three of the four games started by Corbin Burnes and Brandon Woodruff. The other three will be relative coin tosses, with Franco delivering key moments in each. The Rays gave him $185 million before his 21st birthday for a reason, and he’ll make it look like an absolute bargain very, very soon.
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Michael Shapiro
American League:
East Winner: Blue Jays (3)
Central Winner: White Sox (1)
West Winner: Astros (2)
Wild-Card 1: Rays (4)
Wild-Card 2: Yankees (5)
Wild-Card 3: Angels (6)
Michael’s Take: Four AL East teams will be in play for four playoff spots down the stretch, but we’ll close our eyes, pray and hope we can get Mike Trout and Shohei Ohtani into an expanded playoff field. Houston should chug its way to 90 wins, though its ceiling sans Carlos Correa is likely limited. I don’t quite see the Twins keeping pace with the White Sox. The wild card for Minnesota with its new star shortstop is certainly in play.
National League:
East Winner: Mets (2)
Central Winner: Brewers (3)
West Winner: Dodgers (1)
Wild-Card 1: Giants (4)
Wild-Card 2: Braves (5)
Wild0Card 3: Cubs (6)
Michael’s Take: The best race will be in the NL East as the Braves and Mets trade blows, while the Dodgers and Brewers sit as noted favorites in their respective divisions. I’ll give the edge to Steve Cohen’s wallet. Philadelphia should be the sixth team here on paper. But another late-summer collapse is too enticing of a possibility to pass up. Keep an eye on the Cubs, where Seiya Suzuki and Marcus Stroman could earn down-ballot love in the MVP and Cy Young race. Perhaps Chicago will augment its roster in July if the team is over .500.
AL Playoffs:
Wild-Card Series A: Blue Jays over Angels
Wild-Card Series B: Rays over Yankees
Division Series A: Rays over White Sox
Division Series B: Blue Jays over Astros
Championship Series: Rays over Blue Jays
Michael’s Take: The Yankees have opted for depth of top-end talent, but are they really going to out-Rays the Rays en route to the World Series? I’m a touch skeptical. This year feels like it’s Toronto’s time, but ultimately, I’ll side with the American League’s most consistent talent generator, one whose roster will look more impressive in September than it does today. Don’t be shocked if we see Kevin Cash & Co. back in the Fall Classic in 2022.
NL Playoffs:
Wild-Card Series A: Brewers over Cubs
Wild-Card Series B: Braves over Giants
Division Series A: Dodgers over Braves
Division Series B: Mets over Brewers
Championship Series: Mets over Dodgers
Michael’s Take: Los Angeles and Atlanta would be an NLDS for the ages, and in this delightful scenario, it’s only the appetizer to the main course. The Dodgers are being billed as the team of the century, though with Cohen now involved, are we sure the Dodgers will even be the best team in the National League come October? This Mets team features impressive depth, a quality manager and two of the best starting pitchers of their generation. Let’s not crown the Dodgers just yet.
Reinhold Matay/USA TODAY Sports
World Series:
Matchup: Mets over Rays in six games
World Series MVP: Francisco Lindor
