October is here, and with it comes the MLB playoffs set to kick off Tuesday. No dominant team emerged during the regular season, the first one without a 100-win team since 2014. That could mean we're in for an exciting, topsy-turvy postseason.
SI senior writer Tom Verducci breaks down every series below, and joins senior writer Stephanie Apstein, staff writer Emma Baccellieri and editors Will Laws and Nick Selbe in making picks through the World Series as well as some bold predictions.
American League Bracket
Tom Verducci
AL Wild Card: Orioles over Royals
Danger ahead for Baltimore. Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo are a handful against an offense that lost its footing down the stretch. Kansas City’s path to an upset must be through starting pitching. But Baltimore has a huge edge in power. The Royals can’t change a game quickly with the long ball as often as Baltimore can.
AL Wild Card: Astros over Tigers
Detroit is on an amazing run, but it doesn’t match up well against left-handers Framber Valdez and Yusei Kikuchi. The series may come down to which Game 1 starter lasts longer: Tarik Skubal or Valdez.
AL Division Series: Yankees over Orioles
Go with the deeper pitching staff and the bigger high-end talent. Juan Soto and Aaron Judge are just a wonder to behold with the way they wear down (and eventually break) pitching.
AL Division Series: Astros over Guardians
Cleveland manager Steven Vogt needs to treat every game like a bullpen game. His pen is so deep and the off days so accessible that he can play that version of tournament baseball. I’ll still take the team with more slug.
AL Championship Series: Astros over Yankees
In a coin flip of a series, I think Houston has more ways to win four games. Valdez, a left-handed groundball specialist, is the key against the New York power.
Stephanie Apstein
AL Wild Card: Royals over Orioles
AL Wild Card: Astros over Tigers
AL Division Series: Yankees over Royals
AL Division Series: Astros over Guardians
AL Championship Series: Astros over Yankees
Emma Baccellieri
AL Wild Card: Royals over Orioles
AL Wild Card: Tigers over Astros
AL Division Series: Yankees over Royals
AL Division Series: Guardians over Tigers
AL Championship Series: Guardians over Yankees
Nick Selbe
AL Wild Card: Royals over Orioles
AL Wild Card: Astros over Tigers
AL Division Series: Yankees over Royals
AL Division Series: Astros over Guardians
AL Championship Series: Astros over Yankees
Will Laws
AL Wild Card: Orioles over Royals
AL Wild Card: Tigers over Astros
AL Division Series: Yankees over Orioles
AL Division Series: Guardians over Tigers
AL Championship Series: Yankees over Guardians
National League Bracket
Tom Verducci
NL Wild Card: Padres over Braves
Chris Sale’s back spasms changes the equation. San Diego has all the elements you want in tournament play: swing-and-miss starters, a deep bullpen with multiple closing options, an offense that puts the ball in play and a manager who will not miss a move.
NL Wild Card: Brewers over Mets
Milwaukee can turn this into a track meet, as it has in its regular season meetings. The way the Brewers steal bases and exploit the Mets’ defense, including in the outfield, is a huge part of how they play.
NL Division Series: Padres over Dodgers
The rivalry continues. San Diego has the edge with length from the starting pitchers. Los Angeles can get too cute sometimes with pitcher usage. Tanner Scott vs. Shohei Ohtani will be the key (and frequent) matchup of this series.
NL Division Series: Phillies over Brewers
After a blah September, the Phillies will be ready behind Zack Wheeler at home in Game 1. I would expect to see Ranger Suárez as an important rover for manager Rob Thomson with Cristopher Sanchez, who has the better stuff, starting Game 3.
NL Championship Series: Padres over Phillies
The Phillies were my preseason pick to win the World Series over Baltimore, so I still like Philadelphia. It’s just that I’ve been conditioned to see certain teams get on a roll. (Think Texas winning its first title last year.) San Diego fits the narrative, especially the propulsion it would get by taking out the Dodgers.
Stephanie Apstein
NL Wild Card: Padres over Braves
NL Wild Card: Mets over Brewers
NL Division Series: Padres over Dodgers
NL Division Series: Phillies over Mets
NL Championship Series: Phillies over Padres
Emma Baccellieri
NL Wild Card: Padres over Braves
NL Wild Card: Brewers over Mets
NL Division Series: Padres over Dodgers
NL Division Series: Phillies over Brewers
NL Championship Series: Phillies over Padres
Nick Selbe
NL Wild Card: Padres over Braves
NL Wild Card: Brewers over Mets
NL Division Series: Dodgers over Padres
NL Division Series: Phillies over Brewers
NL Championship Series: Phillies over Dodgers
Will Laws
NL Wild Card: Padres over Braves
NL Wild Card: Brewers over Mets
NL Division Series: Dodgers over Padres
NL Division Series: Phillies over Brewers
NL Championship Series: Dodgers over Phillies
World Series
Tom Verducci: Padres over Astros in seven
Stephanie Apstein: Phillies over Astros in six
Emma Baccellieri: Phillies over Guardians in five
Nick Selbe: Phillies over Astros in seven
Will Laws: Yankees over Dodgers in seven
TV: San Diego has very few loose ends or questions entering the playoffs. They seem to have coalesced well as a group after the debacle of last season. There’s nothing like the energy of a fan base hungry to see its first title in a generation or in franchise history. Next in line after the 2004 Red Sox, 2005 White Sox, 2010 Giants, 2015 Royals, 2016 Cubs, 2017 Astros, 2019 Nationals, 2020 Dodgers, 2021 Braves, 2023 Rangers...
SA: A rematch of the 2022 World Series, which we all declared was the last gasp of the Astros dynasty. Well, they made their seventh straight ALCS last year, and I think they’ll play in their fifth World Series in eight years. This time, though, the Phillies’ superior top end of the rotation is enough. It might still not be the last gasp of the Astros dynasty, though.
EB: Cleveland’s dominant bullpen could be enough to get them back to the World Series for the first time since 2016—but the relative lack of pop in this lineup hurts their chances to win it all. That’s especially true against a strong, balanced Phillies team, which looks ready to finally deliver a championship to Bryce Harper.
NS: The Phillies have the offensive firepower to return to the Fall Classic and finish the job this time around. A more prepared pitching staff and fortified bullpen will be the difference in a rematch with the Astros, providing Harper and Co. with all the edge they need to bring a title home to Philadelphia.
WL: Shohei, Mookie and Freddie against Judge, Soto and Stanton? Yes, please. Los Angeles still has enough pitching despite all the injuries to its rotation to advance through the NL bracket with the help of home-field advantage. But the Yankees' staff is stronger, and that will be the difference in a matchup between the two highest-scoring teams in the playoffs.
Which wild-card round team is most capable of going on a deep run?
TV: Padres. See above.
SA: The Padres have my attention. They get a tough draw facing the Dodgers if they advance, but I think this lineup could do some damage against L.A.’s ailing rotation.
EB: The Padres. A series of savvy moves by A.J. Preller are now paying dividends: This group looks far better and deeper than it did in early summer. There are no glaring weaknesses left on this roster, and they have everything they need to potentially keep playing until the end of the month.
NS: They're my pick to win the AL pennant, so I'm going with the Astros. Houston has earned the benefit of the doubt in October. Kyle Tucker has been white hot since returning from the injured list, and Yusei Kikuchi has been an excellent trade deadline pickup. If Josh Hader can regain his form, this team doesn't have many weaknesses.
WL: It's gotta be the team that's made it to seven straight AL Championship Series, as well as four World Series over that span. Houston has at least three starting pitchers who can give five or six strong innings (even if Justin Verlander doesn't rediscover his form), a lineup with few weak spots and a favorable draw against the young Tigers in the wild-card round and starter-needy Guardians for the ALDS.
Bold predictions
TV: Dylan Cease’s moment has arrived. He has the ability to dominate a series with superb stuff, especially how he can spin the baseball.
SA: If the Dodgers make it to the World Series, Shohei Ohtani will close a game on the mound.
EB: After years of waiting for a chance to watch Shohei Ohtani shine in October—and right after seeing him put together one of the best seasons in baseball history—we’ll instead all be disappointed by a middling performance in an early exit for the Dodgers.
NS: Hunter Brown steps up as Houston's next ace. Brown is a well-established huge fan of Justin Verlander, whose career is in its twilight and who doesn't appear to be a factor for the Astros this postseason. Brown took a step up this year and had the AL's lowest ERA (2.27) since May 28. He's ready to emerge as one of the game's best pitchers with a star turn this October.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as MLB Postseason Roundtable: Expert Picks, Bold Predictions.
