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USA Today Sports Media Group
USA Today Sports Media Group
Sport
Nick Schwartz

MLB playoff and World Series chances for every team with 5 weeks left in the season

The Major League Baseball regular season is quickly drawing to a close with only five weeks left, and while two clubs have established themselves as World Series favorites in the National League, each division in the American League is still up for grabs.

Which teams are already looking forward to 2024, and which teams have a chance at postseason glory this fall?

We ranked each MLB team by their current playoff chances, according to the data at Baseball Reference. We’ve also listed the World Series percentage for each team above 1.0%.

The teams with no chance

Brad Penner-USA TODAY Sports

0.2% chance to make the postseason: Mets, Nationals

Less than 0.1% chance to make the postseason: Yankees, Pirates, Cardinals, Rockies, White Sox, Royals, Angels, Athletics

Most of these teams have been out of realistic contention for months, but the Yankees have seen any chance of postseason competition slip away in the last month. In the last 30 days, the Yankees’ postseason chances have reduced by 31.7% to effectively zero, per Baseball Reference.

The unlikely longshots

Wendell Cruz-USA TODAY Sports

Guardians (60-66): 11.2% chance to make the postseason

Padres (60-67): 11.1% chance to make the postseason

Red Sox (66-60): 4.4% chance to make the postseason

Tigers (58-68): 1.4% chance to make the postseason

Much like the Yankees, the Red Sox have had a rough month, with their playoff chances plummeting by 24.9% over the last 30 days.

Miami Marlins: 31.1% playoff chance

Orlando Ramirez-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 65-62

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 31.1%

Chance to win division: <0.1%

Chance to win World Series: 1.2%

San Francisco Giants: 34.1% playoff chance

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 65-61

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 34.1%

Chance to win division: <0.1%

Chance to win World Series: 1.1%

Behind the Yankees and Red Sox, the Giants have done the third-worst damage to their playoff bid for 2023 in the last month, with their chances dropping 20.8%. An 11-20 record over the last 31 games will do that.

Cincinnati Reds: 37.0% playoff chance

Kiyoshi Mio-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 65-61

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 24.4%

Chance to win division: 12.6%

Chance to win World Series: 0.3%

Arizona Diamondbacks: 47.3% playoff chance

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 66-61

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 47.2%

Chance to win division: 0.1%

Chance to win World Series: 1.4%

Chicago Cubs: 61.1% playoff chance

David Reginek-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 65-60

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 31.2%

Chance to win division: 29.9%

Chance to win World Series: 2.3%

Toronto Blue Jays: 65.9% playoff chance

David Kohl-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 70-56

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 63.8%

Chance to win division: 2.1%

Chance to win World Series: 4.5%

Houston Astros: 74.2% playoff chance

Troy Taormina-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 72-55

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 47.1%

Chance to win division: 27.1%

Chance to win World Series: 4.9%

Seattle Mariners: 76.0% playoff chance

Matt Marton-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 71-55

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 43.8%

Chance to win division: 32.2%

Chance to win World Series: 8.8%

The Mariners have been the biggest winners in the last month, seeing their playoff chances rise an incredible 62.6% thanks to a blistering 24-7 stretch.

Texas Rangers: 84.0% playoff chance

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 72-54

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 43.3%

Chance to win division: 40.7%

Chance to win World Series: 9.8%

Milwaukee Brewers: 84.1% playoff chance

Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 69-57

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 26.6%

Chance to win division: 57.5%

Chance to win World Series: 2.5%

Minnesota Twins: 87.5% playoff chance

Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 65-61

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 0.1%

Chance to win division: 87.4%

Chance to win World Series: 1.9%

Philadelphia Phillies: 93.8% playoff chance

Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 69-57

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 93.7%

Chance to win division: 0.1%

Chance to win World Series: 4.2%

Tampa Bay Rays: 95.9% playoff chance

Kim Klement Neitzel-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 76-51

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 73.0%

Chance to win division: 22.9%

Chance to win World Series: 8.3%

Baltimore Orioles: 99.5% playoff chance

Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 77-48

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 24.5%

Chance to win division: 75.0%

Chance to win World Series: 9.5%

Los Angeles Dodgers: ~100% playoff chance

Ken Blaze-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 76-48

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 0.1%

Chance to win division: 99.9%

Chance to win World Series: 14.4%

Atlanta Braves: ~100% playoff chance

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

Record: 81-44

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 0.1%

Chance to win division: 99.9%

Chance to win World Series: 23.7%

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