Get all your news in one place.

100’s of premium titles.
One app.

Start reading

Get all your news in one place.

100’s of premium titles. One news app.

Start reading

USA Today Sports Media Group

Sport

Nick Schwartz

MLB playoff and World Series chances for every team with 5 weeks left in the season

USA TODAY Sports World Series MLB Yankees Bill Streicher Mark J Rebilas Baseball Reference Red Sox

The Major League Baseball regular season is quickly drawing to a close with only five weeks left, and while two clubs have established themselves as World Series favorites in the National League, each division in the American League is still up for grabs.

Which teams are already looking forward to 2024, and which teams have a chance at postseason glory this fall?

We ranked each MLB team by their current playoff chances, according to the data at Baseball Reference. We’ve also listed the World Series percentage for each team above 1.0%.

The teams with no chance

0.2% chance to make the postseason: Mets, Nationals

Less than 0.1% chance to make the postseason: Yankees, Pirates, Cardinals, Rockies, White Sox, Royals, Angels, Athletics

Most of these teams have been out of realistic contention for months, but the Yankees have seen any chance of postseason competition slip away in the last month. In the last 30 days, the Yankees’ postseason chances have reduced by 31.7% to effectively zero, per Baseball Reference.

The unlikely longshots

Guardians (60-66): 11.2% chance to make the postseason

Padres (60-67): 11.1% chance to make the postseason

Red Sox (66-60): 4.4% chance to make the postseason

Tigers (58-68): 1.4% chance to make the postseason

Much like the Yankees, the Red Sox have had a rough month, with their playoff chances plummeting by 24.9% over the last 30 days.

Miami Marlins: 31.1% playoff chance

Record: 65-62

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 31.1%

Chance to win division: <0.1%

Chance to win World Series: 1.2%

San Francisco Giants: 34.1% playoff chance

Record: 65-61

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 34.1%

Chance to win division: <0.1%

Chance to win World Series: 1.1%

Behind the Yankees and Red Sox, the Giants have done the third-worst damage to their playoff bid for 2023 in the last month, with their chances dropping 20.8%. An 11-20 record over the last 31 games will do that.

Cincinnati Reds: 37.0% playoff chance

Record: 65-61

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 24.4%

Chance to win division: 12.6%

Chance to win World Series: 0.3%

Arizona Diamondbacks: 47.3% playoff chance

Record: 66-61

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 47.2%

Chance to win division: 0.1%

Chance to win World Series: 1.4%

Chicago Cubs: 61.1% playoff chance

Record: 65-60

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 31.2%

Chance to win division: 29.9%

Chance to win World Series: 2.3%

Toronto Blue Jays: 65.9% playoff chance

Record: 70-56

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 63.8%

Chance to win division: 2.1%

Chance to win World Series: 4.5%

Houston Astros: 74.2% playoff chance

Record: 72-55

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 47.1%

Chance to win division: 27.1%

Chance to win World Series: 4.9%

Seattle Mariners: 76.0% playoff chance

Record: 71-55

Chance to secure Wild Card spot: 43.8%

Chance to win division: 32.2%

Chance to win World Series: 8.8%

The Mariners have been the biggest winners in the last month, seeing their playoff chances rise an incredible 62.6% thanks to a blistering 24-7 stretch.