Welcome to MLB’s new era: a slew of rules changes and a game that’s quicker, more athletic and way more entertaining. Opening Day is here again, but this will be unlike any season before and questions remain within each division.
Will the big bats of Aaron Judge and Julio Rodríguez help carry their teams into a deep postseason run? Can any team in the NL West catch the San Diego Padres? (Hint: Mookie Betts and the Dodgers are the best bet.) How much of a slugfest will it be between the Braves, Mets and Phillies in the NL East?
Sports Illustrated breaks down each division, so let’s get ready to play ball!
John W. McDonough/Sports Illustrated (Betts); Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated (Alonso and Judge)
AL East
No, it’s not just you. The AL East has been the best division in baseball for more than a quarter century. The postseason field keeps growing, and the East keeps cleaning up. It has secured more playoff berths (55) than any other division in the 28 seasons of the wild-card era. That dominance should continue in 2023.
For all the groaning about the supposed frugality of Yankees owner Hal Steinbrenner, he re-signed reigning AL MVP Aaron Judge to a nine-year, $360 million contract and also invested in the rest of the roster, adding lefty Carlos Rodón for six years and $162 million. Rodón has emerged as one of the best pitchers in baseball, thanks to a few key adjustments.
He’s lengthened his stride—allowing him to sit on his back leg more, generating more power and velocity. His new mechanics have improved his command and helped prevent injuries, which plagued him earlier in his career. (He made 31 starts last year for the Giants after making a combined 33 in the three previous seasons.)
Rodón joins Gerrit Cole, Luis Severino and Nestor Cortes Jr. to form what could be the best one through four of any MLB rotation. The Yankees also re-signed first baseman Anthony Rizzo, who should take advantage of the new rules banning infield shifts. But with no new additions, New York is essentially running it back with the same lineup that was swept in the ALCS last year. Still, there are a few reasons to expect more from this group in 2023. For one: Center fielder Harrison Bader, who was acquired from the Cardinals at the trade deadline last year, should benefit from a full season away from pitcher-friendly Busch Stadium (his career OPS is .637 at home and .807 on the road).
The Blue Jays hit just 20 home runs from the left side of the plate last year, by far the fewest in the majors. To add more lefty bats, the team signed first baseman/ DH Brandon Belt from the Giants and center fielder Kevin Kiermaier from the Rays and traded for Arizona outfielder Daulton Varsho, who boasts impressive power (27 homers last year), speed and defense.
The good news for Toronto is that the righties in the lineup—including first baseman Vladimir Guerrero Jr., shortstop Bo Bichette, right fielder George Springer, third baseman Matt Chapman and second baseman Whit Merrifield—give the team a starting nine that should all be above-league-average hitters. The Jays had a top-heavy rotation, with three starters with ERAs under 3.40 (led by Alek Manoah, at 2.24) and two well north of 5.00. The addition of free-agent righty Chris Bassitt, who won 15 games for the Mets last year, should provide depth and help balance things out.
The Orioles were last year’s version of the 2021 Mariners— beaming with young talent and contending for a wild-card spot ahead of schedule before ultimately falling short. If the ’23 O’s are looking to re-create the magic of the ’22 M’s, who won 90 games and advanced to the ALDS, they could use some mojo from second baseman Adam Frazier, who went from Seattle to Baltimore in the offseason. More important, the additions of righty Kyle Gibson (free agent from Philadelphia) and lefty Cole Irvin (trade with the A’s) have to improve a rotation that had a collective ERA of 4.35.
The Rays have made the postseason each of the last four years because they know how to get every ounce out of a roster of unproven youngsters and castoffs. Co-aces Shane McClanahan and Tyler Glasnow anchor a strong staff of high-spin, high-velocity hurlers who’ve benefited from a top-notch player development system. The lineup, though, is not exactly a murderers’ row. The Rays were 13th in the league in OPS and will need consistent production from more than just Yandy Díaz, Wander Franco, Randy Arozarena and Brandon Lowe to keep their postseason streak alive.
This was a baffling offseason for the Red Sox: They let franchise shortstop Xander Bogaerts and starters Nathan Eovaldi, Michael Wacha and Rich Hill depart in free agency. Baffling, though, doesn’t necessarily mean bad. They did add a pair of former All-Stars, starter Corey Kluber and third baseman/DH Justin Turner; powerful outfielder Adam Duvall; on-base machine Masataka Yoshida from Japan; and closer Kenley Jansen.
In a vacuum, all of them should make Boston better. The problem is other teams in the AL also improved. Unless lefty Chris Sale can stay healthy and second baseman Trevor Story can come back strong this summer from his offseason elbow surgery, a third basement finish in four years could be in the cards.—Matt Martell
Projected Finish
| Place | Team | Projected Record | Odds to Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|
1 |
New York Yankees |
97–65 |
+800 |
2 |
Toronto Blue Jays |
92–70 |
+900 |
3 |
Baltimore Orioles |
86–76 |
+5000 |
4 |
Tampa Bay Rays |
82–80 |
+2200 |
5 |
Boston Red Sox |
75–87 |
+3300 |
Three Stars Worth Watching
- Cedric Mullens, Orioles, OF: As a lefty with some pop and lots of speed, Mullins is a valuable batter—especially with the shift ban and larger bases. He’ll be an even bigger factor if he can hit and run as he did in 2021, when he had 30 homers and 30 steals.
- Chris Sale, Red Sox, SP: Injuries have limited the lefty, who turns 34 on Opening Day, to 11 starts over the past three years. But if he can come back healthy after a long layoff, he’ll be dangerous: Sale is the MLB all-time leader in strikeouts per nine innings (11.1).
- Wander Franco, Rays, SS: The 22-year-old might be the most talented player to ever come through the Rays’ system. But he’s missed half of each of the past two seasons with injuries. A full year of this Wanderful star could make a difference in the East.
AL Central
Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated
If there’s any connective tissue among the AL Central teams (apart from geography), it’s this: Fans of all five clubs know a thing or two about droughts. The Guardians haven’t won a World Series since 1948—the longest active title-less streak in the majors. The Twins have lost an MLB-record 18 consecutive postseason games. The Tigers haven’t made the playoffs since 2014, tied with the Angels for the longest active drought. The Royals haven’t had a winning record since ’15, tied for the longest active streak (also with the Angels). And the White Sox have not won a playoff series since winning the ’05 World Series, with just three postseason appearances in that span.
Time will tell whether 2023 will bring an end to any of those dry spells. But heading into the season, there seems to be a clear separation between the contenders and the afterthoughts. The Guardians were one of baseball’s biggest surprises last season, winning 92 games with the league’s youngest roster. They did so with a throwback style, hitting just 127 home runs (29 of which came from one source, José Ramírez) with the lowest strikeout rate (18.2%) since the 2017 Astros. New first baseman Josh Bell, who is two years removed from a 27-homer season in Pittsburgh, should deliver a power boost, while his high-contact approach will fit right in with his new teammates.
Cleveland’s rotation features all the same faces as last season; after a strong showing in ’22, this group could be in store for some regression. The Guardians’ top three arms—Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie and Cal Quantrill—made 93 combined starts with a 3.05 ERA. They were one of only five teams to have three pitchers make at least 30 starts in ’22, and they’ll need a repeat of that dependability to defend their division crown. The big league squad is buoyed by one of the best farm systems in the game, so reinforcements will never be far away if and when Cleveland’s depth gets tested.
The Twins are the biggest challenge to the Guardians. Minnesota spent more money on big league free agents this winter ($241 million) than the rest of the division combined ($176.75 million). Of course, the vast majority of that went toward re-signing Carlos Correa, who—after a free-agent saga with more twists and turns than both Knives Out movies—finally landed back in Minnesota.
The shortstop’s return gives the Twins a mulligan after a promising start to 2022 flamed out miserably down the stretch. Nearly as impactful as the Correa signing was Minnesota’s trade with the Marlins for right-handed starter Pablo López. The Twins had to give up the reigning AL batting champion, utilityman Luis Arraez, but they were dealing from a position of relative strength, their lineup, to address their most glaring weakness: their rotation. Last year Twins starters combined for the second-fewest innings among AL teams. In 2022, López made 32 starts and threw 180 innings—or 37 more than Minnesota’s innings leader, Joe Ryan. López has a 3.52 ERA over the past three seasons.
The White Sox were a disaster last year, and things didn’t improve this offseason. Chicago’s top-billed hitters are impressive, but the lineup has some glaring holes and lacks depth. The Sox let franchise icon and clubhouse leader José Abreu leave for Houston in free agency and replaced him with left fielder Andrew Benintendi and four lackluster position players in their 30s on minor league deals. The lone addition to the starting rotation—Mike Clevinger—is under investigation by MLB for domestic violence allegations. New manager Pedro Grifol will have his hands full, though things weren’t exactly running smoothly under his predecessor, Tony La Russa.
The Royals and Tigers are left to jockey for the basement, as both teams appear miles away from contention. The potential swan songs of veterans Zack Greinke and Miguel Cabrera represent the only compelling 2023 story lines to monitor in Kansas City and Detroit. The biggest moves the Royals made after losing 97 games last year were to sign declining reliever Aroldis Chapman and trade center fielder Michael A. Taylor, their only position player with WAR better than 3.0, to the Twins for a pair of middling prospects.
The Tigers, whose winning percentage of .407 last year was somehow their second best in six years, were equally uninspiring, sending reliever Gregory Soto, an All-Star each of the past two seasons, to Philly for a pair of potentially versatile young hitters: Nick Maton and Matt Vierling.—Nick Selbe
Projected Finish
| Place | Team | Projected Record | Odds to Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Cleveland Guardians |
88–74 |
+3300 |
2 |
Minnesota Twins |
87–75 |
+5000 |
3 |
Chicago White Sox |
76–86 |
+2800 |
4 |
Detroit Tigers |
64–98 |
+7500 |
5 |
Kansas City Royals |
62–100 |
+15000 |
Three Stars Worth Watching
- Lucas Giolito, White Sox, SP: Like the rest of the White Sox, Giolito regressed last season, when his ERA ballooned to 4.90 after being at 3.47 the previous three seasons. He’ll have to return to form for the South Siders to have any chance in 2023.
- Javier Baez, Tigers, SS: Always a streaky hitter, El Mago (The Magician) disappeared for most of his first year in Detroit, and by the time he found his stroke (an .831 OPS in the final month) any hope of a decent Tigers season had likewise vanished.
- Bobby Witt Jr., Royals, SS: Compared to Julio Rodríguez and Adley Rutschman, Witt had an underwhelming rookie season. He struggled defensively and lacked plate discipline. But he still hit 20 home runs and stole 30 bags, proving his ceiling remains high.
AL West
Erick W. Rasco/Sports Illustrated
For all the sizzle of its star power, the AL West has been as boring as a high school cafeteria meat patty. Over the past five full seasons, no other club in the division has finished within four games of the Astros, including a 16-game gap last year between Houston and its closest pursuer, Seattle. The Astros again? Yep. It’s not that these teams aren’t trying.
Six of the past nine AL MVPs now play in the AL West (three-time winner Mike Trout, Shohei Ohtani, José Abreu and Jose Altuve). The Rangers spent roughly $880 million on free agents in the past two years. The Angels have three players making at least $30 million this year (Trout, Ohtani and Anthony Rendon). The Mariners, in the past two years, acquired Cy Young Award winner Robbie Ray, All-Star pitcher Luis Castillo and All-Star outfielder Teoscar Hernández, and promoted Julio Rodríguez, the AL Rookie of the Year last season. Try as they might, the AL West teams still are not up to the Astros’ standard.
Houston did lose Cy Young winner Justin Verlander to the Mets via free agency, but it added Abreu, an upgrade from Yuli Gurriel at first base and a career .311 hitter with runners in scoring position. The secret sauce of Houston’s run is a common recipe: pitching. In winning 101, 103, 107, 95 and 106 games over the past five full seasons, the Astros’ pitchers have ranked 5, 1, 2, 4 and 1 in the league in ERA. Depth and velocity are why they dominate. Last season only the Angels, to accommodate Ohtani, had more starts on five days of rest or more than Houston.
Nobody is overworked (not even Framber Valdez, who led the league with 201 1 /3 innings pitched). That also applies to those coming out of the bullpen, where manager Dusty Baker has many options after his starters give him steady length. They play country hardball in Houston, and it works. Combine all that firepower with an offense that puts the ball in play more than any club but Cleveland, and Houston has the biggest strikeout edge in the game. The Astros’ style is why calling the playoffs “a crapshoot” is an overreach.
The Mariners have a solid rotation; last year only Houston and Cleveland obtained more innings from their starters. And if you don’t think that stat is more meaningful than ever, understand that the seven teams with the most innings from starters all made the playoffs. To challenge Houston, Seattle needs a more productive offense. It plays with a thin margin of error. Last season 34 of its 90 wins came by one run, the most such nail-biters in baseball. The club hit .230 and squeaked into the postseason only through the added wild-card spot, matching the 1906 White Sox as the worst-hitting playoff team in any full season. To boost that offense, Seattle added Hernández, second baseman Kolten Wong, infielder Tommy La Stella and outfielder AJ Pollock.
The Angels are another team that needs more offense to hang with Houston. After years of squandering the dynamic duo of Trout and Ohtani with mediocre-at-best pitching, the Angels’ downfall last season was a woeful offense. Los Angeles scored 3.85 runs per game, 25th in the majors. The Angels led the majors in strikeouts with the 13th-most punchouts ever (1,539). Trout has become a fly-ball, pull-hitting monster with more strikeouts in his game, while Ohtani, a .267 career hitter, should be one of the primary beneficiaries of the ban on shifts. L.A. can’t rely on Rendon, who turns 33 in June and over the past two seasons has missed 219 games while hitting .235.
Despite six straight losing seasons, the Rangers have taken a page from the all-in postures of the Padres and Phillies by spending their way back into contention, especially if Jacob deGrom (signed for $185 million over five years) stays healthy. Texas can put an experienced, top-flight starter on the mound every night, with Jon Gray, 31; Nathan Eovaldi, 33; Andrew Heaney, 31; Martin Pérez, 31; and Jake Odorizzi, 33; behind deGrom, 35—if they stay out of the trainers’ room. The most starts by pitchers 31 and older for a team is 142 by the pennant-winning 1927 Pirates; the Rangers would be thrilled to break that mark.
No such optimism abounds in Oakland. With a stripped-down roster until they resolve their long-standing ballpark problem, the Athletics don’t have an apparent next core group beyond catcher Shea Langeliers and pitchers JP Sears and Ken Waldichuk. The fall has been hard and fast. In 2019 the A’s won 97 games. Last year they won 60 and hit .216, making them the worst-hitting team in any full season of the Live Ball era except the 1968 Yankees.—Tom Verducci
Projected Finish
| Place | Team | Projected Record | Odds to Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Houston Astros |
96–66 |
+550 |
2 |
Seattle Mariners |
87–75 |
+1600 |
3 |
Los Angeles Angels |
86–76 |
+5000 |
4 |
Texas Rangers |
76–86 |
+3300 |
5 |
Oakland Athletics |
62–100 |
+30000 |
Three Stars Worth Watching
- Nathaniel Lowe, Rangers, 1B: The left-handed hitter is on a mission to make batting average cool again. After batting .302 last year (with 27 homers, to boot), Lowe could see his average trend even higher this season with the abolition of the shift.
- Ramón Laureano, Athletics, RF: The A’s have traded virtually all of their decent hitters, with the exception of Laureano (who hit just .211 last year). A bounce back would be nice, but ultimately he’ll be most valuable if he can get off to a hot start and up his trade value.
- Luis Castillo, Mariners, SP: He threw his signature screwball changeup—which can be tough to control—less frequently last season, and he cut his walks significantly. A full season of a more-controlled Castillo will bolster an already-stout rotation.
NL East
Greg Nelson/Sports Illustrated
Consider the Phillies in a vacuum. They’re fresh off a trip to the World Series, with all their core talent intact, plus the addition of a huge free-agent signing. What more could a team ask for? Well, it could ask to play in that vacuum rather than in the NL East. Because a lack of air just might be preferable to this competition.
Let’s start with the team that’s won the division five years running. The Braves remain loaded. Yes, they allowed longtime shortstop Dansby Swanson to walk in free agency, but they had a replacement waiting in Vaughn Grissom. While the 22-year-old has work to do on defense, he got off to a torrid start as a rookie last year, with a 121 OPS+ in 41 games.
The pitching staff, led by Max Fried, had the second-best ERA in the NL, and they’ll now have a new target to throw to. Atlanta traded for one of the most well-rounded catchers in the game, Oakland’s Sean Murphy—and then promptly signed him to a six-year extension. That’s a strategy that has become par for the course for the Braves: There are so many young players locked up long term that Atlanta doesn’t have a competitive window so much as an entire door.
Yet the Braves can’t get too comfortable sharing a division with the Mets. They, too, had a major player depart in free agency this winter: Jacob deGrom. But owner Steve Cohen continued to show his spending might as he grabbed the best replacement available in Justin Verlander—plus Kodai Senga, who enjoyed great success with his signature “ghost forkball” in Japan—and some added depth in veteran lefty José Quintana.
For good measure, Cohen then spent a few hundred million more to extend outfielder Brandon Nimmo and closer Edwin Díaz. Injuries, however, have struck the Mets before the season even started, as Nimmo is week-to-week after spraining his knee and ankle in a spring training game, while Díaz is out for the majority of the season after he tore the patellar tendon in his right knee during the World Baseball Classic. But add in Pete Alonso and suddenly last year’s 101-win total seems reachable.
Then, oh, yes—the team from this division that came within two wins of a championship last year! The only everyday player the Phillies lost this winter was infielder Jean Segura, and they brought in an incredible upgrade in Trea Turner. The shortstop is both a quality leadoff bat and a fearsome base stealer—one of the most dynamic players in the game. Philadelphia also added rotation depth in Taijuan Walker and a bullpen arm in Craig Kimbrel.
True, it’ll begin the year missing Bryce Harper, whose elbow surgery this winter means his bat won’t be in the lineup until midsummer. (The timing of his return to the outfield is more uncertain.) His absence will definitely sting. But there should be enough talent here to weather it. And the Phillies should also be able to enjoy something that was missing last year—organizational steadiness.
Manager Rob Thomson took over in an interim capacity last summer after Joe Girardi was fired. Now, he’s signed a multiyear deal, and there’s stability in both the coaching staff and front office, something that has been rare in Philly recently. In other words, two teams that won more than 100 games last year and one that went to the World Series all now look just as good or even better.
It’s not just that any one of these three teams could be expected to win the division. It’s that any of them could be expected to win the World Series. As for what can be expected of the two other teams in the NL East? The Marlins’ strong rotation is led by reigning Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara. Its depth took a hit with the decision to trade Pablo López to the Twins, but the staff still has a lot of intriguing potential.
The offense is a different story. Miami was last in the NL in runs scored for the third time in five years. The Marlins acquired AL batting champ Luis Arraez in the López deal; he’ll take over at second, and Jazz Chisholm Jr. will move to the outfield. They also snagged Segura from the Phillies, but even with those upgrades, there’s not enough firepower to contend.
And the Nationals? It’s hard to imagine how this year could be any worse than last season, when, three years removed from a World Series title, they lost 107 games. But there’s no reason to believe things should be any better. Washington has cashed out on every viable trade chip— most notably Juan Soto, who was sent to the Padres last summer. The prospects the Nats landed restocked what had been one of the worst farm systems in the game, but most of the players are still a few years away. With the team up for sale, spending significantly in free agency was a nonstarter. Perhaps this is the club that benefits the most from consideration in a vacuum—because there’s nothing favorable here compared to any other major league team.—Emma Baccellieri
Projected Finish
| Place | Team | Projected Record | Odds to Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|
1 |
Atlanta Braves |
96–66 |
+900 |
2 |
New York Mets |
95–67 |
+700 |
3 |
Philadelphia Phillies |
92–70 |
+1600 |
4 |
Miami Marlins |
80–82 |
+6600 |
5 |
Washington Nationals |
59–103 |
+30000 |
Three Stars Worth Watching
- Sandy Alcantara, Marlins, SP: The reigning NL Cy Young winner is a throwback to another era, a true ace who goes deep in games. Last season Alcantara had a 2.28 ERA, six complete games and 228 2/3 innings pitched—the most in the bigs since 2016.
- J.T. Realmuto, Phillies, C: When you accomplish something only Iván Rodriguez has done, that’s saying something. A rare five-tool backstop, in 2022 Realmuto became the second catcher ever, after Pudge, to hit 20 home runs and steal 20 bases in a season.
- Victor Robles, Nationals, CF: The speedy center fielder is the only position player remaining from the Nats’ 2019 title team. Robles is never going to be a fearsome hitter (0.5 oWAR last year), but his defense (1.6 dWAR) definitely plays.
NL Central
John W. McDonough/Sports Illustrated
This group had a strong case for being MLB’s weakest division last season. It accounted for the fewest wins (377) of any division in the majors and had two 100-loss teams in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, just the fourth time that’s happened since MLB moved to its current six-division format in 1994. The Central’s sole playoff representative, St. Louis, was swept by the 87-win Phillies, extending a three-year streak for the division not winning a playoff series.
While that might indicate the division is there for the taking, only the Cubs seem to be actively trying to topple the Cardinals. Just three of Sports Illustrated’s top 50 free agents entering the offseason signed in the division: Chicago got shortstop Dansby Swanson and starting pitcher Jameson Taillon, while St. Louis raided the Cubs to replace retired catcher Yadier Molina with Willson Contreras.
The Cardinals are modest favorites to win the Central on the betting markets but should probably be more strongly favored. St. Louis is returning virtually its entire offense and rotation, save for deadline acquisition José Quintana (who had a 2.01 ERA in 12 starts for St. Louis) and the retired duo of Albert Pujols and Molina, who will be more than capably replaced by Contreras. The Cards ranked in the top five of offensive and defensive fWAR last season—the only team other than the Yankees to do so—and they appear equipped to match their franchise record of five straight playoff berths.
However, the team’s ceiling could be limited by the lack of a true ace (barring a triumphant revival from the injury-plagued, 27-year-old Jack Flaherty, who hasn’t totaled 160 innings over the last three years) as well as the unlikelihood of Paul Goldschmidt replicating last season’s MVP campaign during his age-35 season. Milwaukee’s inactivity on the free-agent market is hard to fathom.
The Brewers squandered a prime opportunity to win their second straight division crown, trading All-Star closer Josh Hader while leading the division Aug. 1 and then finishing one game out of the final wild-card berth. The club responded by opting not to re-sign any of its nine free agents over the offseason, including its defensive-runs-saved leader (infielder Jace Peterson), veteran bat Andrew McCutchen, first baseman and catcher Omar Narváez, and several bullpen arms.
None of those pieces are irreplaceable, but they pile up, and the lack of investment—Milwaukee is expected to enter the season with the 11th-lowest payroll in the game—raises the question of whether ownership is willing to pony up the money needed to truly threaten for the Brewers’ first World Series title. The Crew also traded away outfielder Hunter Renfroe, who had the team’s highest OPS+ (126) and batting average despite hitting just .255, which tells you all you need to know about this team’s contact skills.
The hitter with the team’s second-highest OPS+ (118), Kolten Wong, was traded to the Mariners in exchange for outfielder Jesse Winker and infielder Abraham Toro. Milwaukee is betting big on Winker bouncing back from a subpar season in Seattle, where he hit .219 and questions about his work ethic arose. The big question is whether the team’s stellar rotation, led by NL strikeout leader Corbin Burnes, is enough to overcome the attrition on offense and in the bullpen.
On the other hand, the Cubs signaled that they’re ready to rejoin the fray by committing roughly $275 million to bring in Swanson, Taillon, center fielder Cody Bellinger, catcher Tucker Barnhart and veteran hitters Trey Mancini and Eric Hosmer, who figure to rotate between first base and DH. Chicago’s vision has come into focus, with a defense built around three excellent up-the-middle defenders in Swanson, Bellinger and second baseman Nico Hoerner backing up a rotation that thrives on pitching to contact.
The Pirates made several savvy signings in veterans Carlos Santana, Ji-Man Choi, Rich Hill, Austin Hedges and hometown hero McCutchen. Will they push Pittsburgh into the playoff conversation? No. Could they fetch useful prospects in trades and help build the roots of a winning culture? Certainly.
The Reds don’t have as much to offer contenders after signing Padres castoff Wil Myers as their primary free-agent addition, but the future looks brighter after hav- ing acquired a bunch of talented youngsters during last summer’s sell-off. The progressions of sophomore starters Hunter Greene, Nick Lodolo and Graham Ashcraft will be the most important developments by the Ohio River.—Will Laws
Projected Finish
| Place | Team | Projected Record | Odds to Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|
1 |
St. Louis Cardinals |
88–74 |
+2200 |
2 |
Milwaukee Brewers |
84–78 |
+2800 |
3 |
Chicago Cubs |
78–84 |
+6600 |
4 |
Pittsburgh Pirates |
70–92 |
+15000 |
5 |
Cincinnati Reds |
64–98 |
+20000 |
Three Stars Worth Watching
- Hunter Greene, Reds, SP: Hype has followed this flame-throwing righty since he was on the cover of SI at age 17. Now 23 and entering his second MLB season, Greene and his triple-digit heater will be the most exciting show in Cincinnati this summer.
- Ian Happ, Cubs, LF: Consistency eluded Happ before last season, when he had an OPS+ of 119, earned his first All-Star nod and won a Gold Glove. A pending free agent, he could help the Cubs—or be a valuable chip at the deadline if they falter.
- Bryan Reynolds, Pirates, CF: Reynolds has asked for a trade, but the Pirates—who have him under control for three years—see him as the centerpiece of their next contending team (whenever that may be). For now, he’s the best hitter on a team in need of firepower.
NL West
John W. McDonough/Sports Illustrated
They’re excited about the larger bases. They’re getting used to the pitch clock. But the most popular rule change in the NL West this season is the new, more balanced schedule. Historically, divisional rivals have played 19 games per season; this year, that figure will be 13. Just about every team in the NL West stands to benefit.
The Padres and Dodgers are juggernauts, and the Giants could make the playoffs, so no one wants to see them; Arizona employs Cy Young candidate Zac Gallen, who can stop just about anyone’s winning streak; and the Rockies play at elevation, which messes with visitors’ sleep schedules and breaking balls.
All five teams can hope to squeeze out a few more wins in 2023. That much is clear. Less so, the situation in San Diego. As they filed into the press conference room at FanFest in February, nearly every Padres player faced the same question: Which position do you play? None could say for sure.
After an offseason flurry the likes of which they hadn’t seen in San Diego since 2015 (when they emptied their farm system to build a team that went 74–88), the Padres employ five legitimate shortstops.
There’s Xander Bogaerts, the new star, who signed a $280 million deal in the offseason; Jake Cronenworth, who can play anywhere; Ha-Seong Kim, the incumbent; Manny Machado, who’s played third base the past four years and is perhaps the most talented of them all; and Fernando Tatis Jr., who once seemed a fixture at short but whose doping suspension, which ends in late April, seems likely to relegate him to the outfield.
Even manager Bob Melvin isn’t totally sure where to put them all: “It’s almost an exercise in futility” to project a roster before the end of March, he said. If the Padres all play to their potential, beating them will be nearly as hard. With a full season of deadline pickup Juan Soto, plus DH Nelson Cruz—still a fearsome slugger at 42—the Padres’ lineup should terrify opposing pitchers. And as San Diego bolstered its offense, the team was able to retain key relievers Nick Martinez and Robert Suarez. The Padres’ players openly compare themselves to their rivals to the north; this could be the year they finally take them down.
The Dodgers, who have won nine of the last 10 NL West titles, may make San Diego’s task a bit easier: The club let several of last year’s key contributors (shortstop Trea Turner, third baseman Justin Turner, lefty Tyler Anderson) depart in free agency and will give some of its young players a chance. Most exciting among the kids likely to see time this year is second baseman Miguel Vargas, whose defense needs work but whose bat is major league ready.
L.A. still has top-line talent, including Mookie Betts, who hit a career-high 35 homers last season, but lacks the depth that has been its strength. The rotation is particularly troubling: With ace Walker Buehler likely to be out until September as he recovers from Tommy John surgery, the team will need strong performances from righty Dustin May, who is himself returning from Tommy John surgery, and righty Noah Syndergaard, who is pitching in his second full season after, you guessed it, Tommy John surgery.
Speaking of underdogs, the cruelest 14-day stretch in Giants offseason history—from the moment in December when fans believed AL MVP Aaron Judge had signed with San Francisco to the announcement that the deal for shortstop Carlos Correa had fallen through—led us here, to a team that appears about the same quality as the one that went 81–81 last year. Lefty ace Carlos Rodón left for the Yankees in free agency, leaving Logan Webb, who was ninth among NL pitchers in WAR, to lead the rotation. A club that looked ascendant after its 107-win 2021 now seems years away.
The Diamondbacks might be close on San Francisco’s heels, especially if outfielder Corbin Carroll lives up to his potential as a Rookie of the Year favorite. He might be the fastest player in the majors; he throws well, and his career minor league OPS is 1.014. Carroll will join outfielder Alek Thomas as a member of an exceptional young core that should give Arizona hope for the future—and maybe even make it a dark-horse candidate for a 2023 playoff run.
No such luck for the Rockies, for whom even the new, balanced schedule can’t promise so much as a winning record. A full season of left fielder Kris Bryant, who missed 120 games last year, should help, but this club lacks the pitching to do much. Colorado’s goal this year will have to be rather more modest: It’s one of four teams never to lose 100 games in the season. The Rockies will hope to keep that streak alive. At least they get to see the Reds more.—Stephanie Apstein
Projected Finish
| Place | Team | Projected Record | Odds to Win World Series |
|---|---|---|---|
1 |
San Diego Padres |
96–66 |
+1000 |
2 |
Los Angeles Dodgers |
94–68 |
+600 |
3 |
San Francisco Giants |
81–81 |
+4000 |
4 |
Arizona Diamondbacks |
74–88 |
+8000 |
5 |
Colorado Rockies |
63–99 |
+10000 |
- Christian Walker, Diamondbacks, 1B: The most underrated first baseman in baseball, Walker boasts loads of power (36 homers) and dazzling defense (a dWAR of 1.0, best at the position). He could make the D-Backs a surprising wild-card contender in 2023.
- Blake Snell, Padres, SP: Snell has yet to recapture the level of dominance that earned him the 2018 AL Cy Young award, when he was the Rays’ ace. But he is still an above-average pitcher who slots in nicely as the No. 3 starter in a deep Padres rotation.
