Are the days of small markets teams winning the World Series over?
No, because winning the World Series only requires 11 postseason wins, providing you avoid the wildcard. The best thing that any team can do to win the World Series is to get into the playoffs. Getting into the playoffs usually requires that teams spend money to employ the best players, but last year was the first time since 2018 that the team with the best regular-season record won the World Series. GB
Definitely not. There are young studs scattered in some of the smallest markets. Pair a couple of trusty veterans with Bobby Witt Jr (Royals), Elly de La Cruz (Reds), or Paul Skenes (Pirates) and crazy things like winning a World Series can happen. See the Nats in 2019. MJ
Small market teams will continue to have a shot for as long as there are more postseason spots than there are $300m-plus payrolls. October baseball is a unique, mercurial beast that can be bested by a healthy team getting hot at the right moment. In baseball, financials may buy you consistent contention – the Dodgers may not miss the playoffs for at least another decade. But each October is still a crapshoot, money just ensures you get to gamble every year. HK
Small market teams? How about teams like the Giants and everyone else outside the top 10 payrolls? Those guys are also up a creek. That said, I do still think there are some slim opportunities for a fantastically designed minor league system to produce unicorns and beat the big boys. It’ll take a perfect game from the front office to get even close and then the window will be smaller than Eddie Gaedel’s strike zone. DL
What I’m most looking forward to this season …
Baseball is teeming with young stars: Skenes electrified baseball upon his arrival last year and is a top contender to win the NL Cy Young; the Diamondbacks’ Corbin Carroll is a budding superstar with power, speed and a hard-charging style; with his size, power and plate discipline, Nationals outfielder James Wood resembles a young Aaron Judge. And those are just a few across the league. GB
While attention will be on the big market powerhouses, the AL Central is packed with talented young teams. The Royals, Tigers and Guardians are poised for postseason berths once again but will entertain us as they duke it out for the division title first. MJ
The two different receptions awaiting Juan Soto this season will take place fewer than 10 miles apart: when he plays for his new team in Queens and when he visits his most recent team in the Bronx. It’s not just the Soto of it all, the Mets and Yankees are both formidable, flawed, and have reason to believe they’re the premier New York team. The crosstown rivalry should be especially pointed and important this season. HK
Will Soto sink or swim in Flushing? What does $765m, divided into 15 tidy parcels, actually yield? We’ve seen players come to Queens and crumble under the expectations. Yes, I know that Soto has been great almost everywhere he’s been, including the Bronx. Still, nothing on the 7 line is ever guaranteed and I get the feeling that the baseball world wouldn’t mind a Soto shit show to begin the season. Such a slow start could snowball pretty quickly, but the good news is, however he performs, it’s guaranteed to be entertaining. DL
Young player to watch
The Dodgers’ Japanese hurler Roki Sasaki will transfix any viewer with his roaring fastball and disappearing splitter, so I’ll take a moment to focus on my favorite young bat: Athletics outfielder Lawrence Butler, who possesses a thrilling combination of power and speed that led to 25 home runs and 18 stolen bases in his rookie campaign. A 30 homer-30 stolen base campaign is not out of the question. GB
Wood. There’s only one reason to watch the Nats this year, and that’s to see how Wood will jumpstart the rebuild. At 6ft 7in and 235lbs, the 22-year-old has crazy speed and the potential to become one of the great hitters in baseball. MJ
It’s tough to make trading away Soto look good but the haul that the Nationals got in return is starting to pan out – headlined by the Nats’ Wood, who pairs the kind of power you would expect out of that physique with the sort of smooth athleticism that you wouldn’t. I’m hardly going out on a limb after he was 20% better than league average in a partial season last year. But if you’re not watching the Nats, you might have missed the debut of the soon-to-be star. HK
We all want to know when Skenes will undergo his seemingly inevitable Tommy John surgery. This year? Next year? Is that a cynical take? Oh yeah it is, and though I do kid, every bad joke has a kernel of truth in it. Skenes has elite secondary stuff and he isn’t quite max effort on every single fastball. But even still, half of his fastballs are over 100 mph and his sinker settles at about 95. So, you know, I worry. A prayer to the baseball gods: Please let Skenes become a sturdy, dominant workhorse who hurls deep into games – the sport needs it desperately. Can I get an amen? DL
MVP winners
NL: Shohei Ohtani, Dodgers. I am aching to pick Carroll, whom I believe will hit between 25 and 30 home runs and steal over 50 bases in 2025, but Ohtani is the default answer once he resumes pitching. AL: Gunnar Henderson, Orioles. I like the young shortstop, who finished fourth in last year’s voting after a phenomenal age-24 season, to edge out another star young infielder, the Royals’ Witt. GB
AL: Witt. The do-it-all stud is a great defender with lightning speed and huge power. Witt could be the next 40-40 man. NL: Ohtani. Speaking of 40-40 seasons, Ohtani is coming off his first. He’s the best player in baseball, and there is no credible counterpoint. MJ
NL: Ohtani. He has won MVP in 50% of the full seasons he’s played in MLB. He’s won with the Angels in the American League and with the Dodgers in the National League. He’s won as the only two-way player this century and he’s won as the first-ever strictly DH to take home the honors. He’s winning it again this year for the NL. Since that’s so chalk, I have a slightly more interesting AL pick: Wyatt Langford, the Texas Rangers outfielder, who debuted last season less than a year after getting drafted. He struggled for most of the season before getting red-hot in September. But even while struggling he was fast, patient, and sprayed the ball all over the field. Now he just needs to add back the power he had in college and the minors. HK
Well there’s Ohtani in the NL at the juicy price of 5-4 and then there’s the field. If the slugger turns starter around the All-Star break, well, you know the deal. Baseball is generally unpredictable, but with Ohtani, it’s just about whether he will stay healthy. His only competition is in the other league and that’s Judge, who was actually better overall than Ohtani last season, if only because he plays the field. One problem for No 99: nobody will pitch to him now that Soto is gone, and that means Witt gets the trophy in the AL. DL
AL East winners
Even after losing Soto to the Mets and ace Gerrit Cole to an elbow injury (he’ll miss the entire 2025 season), the Yankees should excel after savvy offseason additions like outfielder Cody Bellinger, starting pitcher Max Fried and closer Devin Williams. This will be an extremely competitive division and all five teams may finish with records over .500. GB
While the Yankees did sign Fried, Bellinger and Williams, they lost Soto and Nestor Cortes, and Cole is done for the season. That leaves a Red Sox team that had a fruitful offseason acquiring Garrett Crochet and Alex Bregman with a viable path to AL East glory. MJ
Yes, the Yankees are reigning pennant winners and pivoted admirably from losing Soto. And yes, the Red Sox missed the postseason entirely the past three years. But I believe in the pitching moves Boston made this winter and the influx of talent in the form of a trio of top prospects ready to contribute at some point this summer. It’s a shame Netflix isn’t following them around this season, because the Red Sox are going to be the team to beat. HK
I know who it won’t be: the Yankees. No Cole, no Soto, no Giancarlo Stanton and Luis Gil, at least for now. They still have three MVP’s on the roster, which is nothing to sneeze at, but that’s a lot of losses. It opens the door to the Orioles, who shamefully failed to adequately invest in their rotation after the loss of ace Corbin Burnes to free agency. They’re still more than capable, with an enormous amount of talent on the roster. They should hold off the improved Red Sox for the crown. DL
AL Central winners
The Twins suffered an ugly collapse, going 8-18 in the final month of the 2024 regular season en route to a fourth-place finish in a clustered AL Central. Here’s a bet that their starting pitching depth and versatile lineup – with major contributions from slugger Matt Wallner and former top pick Royce Lewis – put them back in the playoffs in 2025. GB
This will be the most competitive division in baseball and any of three teams could take it. But people are sleeping on the Royals, not believing they can improve on their 30-win jump a season ago. The front of their lineup should be bolstered by new leadoff hitter Jonathan India. Most of Kansas City’s useful rotation stayed intact, and they fortified the bullpen in the offseason. MJ
I would love to see what the Twins could do with full and fully healthy seasons from Byron Buxton and Carlos Correa, but I don’t think we’re ever going to get that. The Royals went from 100 losses to playing in the postseason in the span of a single season. I like their spunkiness – and the fact that Witt projects to be the fourth-best position player, behind only marquee names like Judge, Soto, and Ohtani. HK
Remember when everyone handed the Twins the AL Central last season and ignored the Guardians? Well that was embarrassing. What now? Well, really, I have no idea. We have four middling teams, none of whom light up the room and any of them are capable of winning the Central. That said, KC’s rotation is bright, especially if Seth Lugo can be the ace he broke out to be last season. Plus they have the soon-to-be MVP in Witt, so, the Royals are worth a whirl. DL
AL West winners
The Astros look a bit less fearsome without franchise cornerstones Bregman and Kyle Tucker, so the 2023 World Series champion Rangers will sneak past them and the punchless Mariners. A veteran core should propel this sturdy squad to 92 wins, which will probably be enough to win the division. GB
Welcome back, Jacob deGrom! He’s not the only key player back: with the return of Evan Carter and Josh Jung, as well as adding more pop in the lineup via free agency, these Rangers should hit a lot of homers on the road to the division title. MJ
The Astros have won the West seven out of the last eight years. But their core is aging or getting shipped out while the Rangers have Langford, Carter, and Jung to supplement their 30-something stalwarts (also Corey Seager is somehow only just now going into his age-31 season?). Plus, they may get most of a season out of deGrom for the first time since he signed with Texas ahead of 2023 – and he’s the best pitcher in the sport whenever he’s on the mound. HK
Oh, the AL West: the AFC South of MLB, or at least it was last season. It was not so interesting to watch the Rangers sink and the Mariners slide, with many thanks to Julio Rodriguez’s mystifying decline. The Astros won, again. Yawn. The good news? That may finally be over. The Rangers have the boys to bounce back into the post season, especially if deGrom can stitch together 20 or so starts: wouldn’t that be something? Their infield is stacked, the rotation may be serviceable and there’s no real closer. Warts and all, it looks like Texas, mostly thanks to the decline in Houston, a cheap, lazy Mariners front office and a flimsy back end of the division. DL
NL East winners
The Mets had the splashiest offseason by adding Soto, but the Phillies still have the league’s deepest starting lineup after the Dodgers and a reliable pitching staff. Zack Wheeler should be the frontrunner for the NL Cy Young award after finishing second last year and he could be challenged by teammate Christopher Sánchez. GB
Unlike other teams that overhauled their rosters in the offseason, Atlanta just needed their stars to return to health. Getting Ronald Acuňa Jr back will be huge. Same with Spencer Strider. If Marcell Ozuna sits somewhere near 40 homers once again, and the rest of the lineup steps it up, this offense will easily lead the Braves to more than 100 wins. MJ
You could justifiably put the Braves, Phillies, and Mets in virtually any order. Which is why I’m going with the boring pick of the Braves. And actually, the projection systems don’t seem to think it’s as close as I do. The Braves finished second in the East last year after losing two of the most impactful players in the sport to early-season injuries. Getting Strider and Acuña back puts them back on top. HK
Loaded, that’s the NL East. The Phillies have a tremendous core, but in a game increasingly defined by young, raw talent, there’s always a chance that their aging roster breaks down. And while that decline could happen sooner than later, it won’t be in 2025: the Phillies will win a tight race with the Braves and Mets. That’ll be thanks to a deep starting rotation led by Wheeler and the usual suspects on offense, Bryce Harper and Co, featuring a Trea Turner who bounces back to his old self. DL
NL Central winners
The Brewers have lost franchise shortstop Willy Adames, who signed a seven-year contract with the Giants, but feature one of the game’s brightest young stars in outfielder Jackson Chourio and arguably the game’s best offensive catcher in William Contreras. GB
The Reds and Cubs could certainly make a push, but Milwaukee’s stacked bullpen will be key in keeping the Brewers as division leaders. Can we stop calling them overachievers? MJ
Speaking of projections, the computers have a hard time separating the NL Central teams right now. I’m going with the Brewers just on gut feeling. Their offseason was a net negative, but somehow they always manage to overcome their financial austerity. And not always just by the skin of their teeth! Last year they scored the sixth-most runs in baseball and they’ll bring back offensive contributors like Chourio, Contreras, and a healthy Yelich, who looked hot in spring. HK
If the Cardinals don’t make the playoffs, it will be their longest streak of postseason less seasons since 1995. And they’re not going to make it, so will we finally hear consistent booing from their wholesome fans who love their team SO MUCH? Who will be more miserable? St Louis or Milwaukee, who traded off Williams and lost Adames to free agency? The door is open for the Cubs, a flawed but capable club led by their freshest face, Kyle Tucker. DL
NL West winners
This won’t be a cakewalk. The Padres were one win away from ending the Dodgers’ season in 2024 and the Diamondbacks made two marquee offseason additions – starting pitcher Burnes and first baseman Josh Naylor – to fortify an exciting young core. Even so, the Dodgers are simply too powerful: Adding Blake Snell and Sasaki gives them the best pitching staff in baseball and their offense is the envy of any executive and fan. They may not win the World Series, but they’ll probably win 100 games. GB
The most loaded hitting and pitching staffs in baseball. Most of the who’s who in MLB are on this roster. The Dodgers feel like a bully at this point, which makes them extra fun to hate. MJ
This winter, the World Series champions – and winners of the most games not just last year but the past decade – added a two-time Cy Young Award winner and the most coveted starting pitcher on the market, and those were not the same person. Plus, their lineup is studded not just with All-Stars or potential MVPs, but likely future Hall of Famers. It adds up to a pretty dominant Dodgers team. HK
It’s all about the Rockies, who seem poised to break out and win the NL West for the first time in when, (checks baseball-reference), ever? Yes, ever! Wow! Spectacular third baseman Ryan McMahon and dynamic Ezequiel Tovar will lead this spicy Colorado bunch along with a revitalized Kris Bryant (remember him?) and veteran hurler German Marquez. How long can I keep this farce up? I’d say up until right about now when I saw the Dodgers. DL
AL wildcards
Orioles, Rays, Guardians. GB
Yankees, Orioles, and Tigers. MJ
Astros, Yankees, Orioles. HK
Red Sox, Yankees, Blue Jays – that means four AL East teams in the playoffs! DL
NL wildcards
Diamondbacks, Braves, Mets. GB
Mets, Phillies, Reds. MJ
Diamondbacks, Mets, Phillies. HK
Mets, Braves, Padres. DL
ALCS
Rangers over Orioles. GB
Red Sox over Yankees. MJ
Red Sox over Royals. HK
Orioles over Rangers. DL
NLCS
Phillies over Dodgers. GB
Braves over Dodgers. MJ
Phillies over Dodgers. HK
Dodgers over Phillies. DL
World Series
Phillies over Orioles. After their surprise run to the 2022 World Series, the Phillies have struggled with the weight of expectations over the last two Octobers. I like them to finally overcome those recent ghosts to outlast a weaker, but mentally tough opponent in the Rangers thanks to brilliant postseasons from Bryce Harper and Wheeler. An underrated contributor this season will be infielder Bryson Stott, who should flush a disappointing 2024 with a breakout offensive season thanks to improved plate discipline. GB
Braves over Red Sox. The Braves win the World Series over the Red Sox thanks to a deep roster that can swing the bat up and down the order. Crochet, a huge add for Boston, will eke out a win. But Atlanta’s starting rotation is too loaded, with reigning NL Cy Young winner Chris Sale and a bunch of contenders. MJ
Red Sox over Phillies. Let’s get this out of the way: the Phillies are not the best team in the NL. But, they have an incredible – and incredibly durable – top of the rotation, which has an outsized impact in October. They’ll ultimately fall, however, to a Red Sox team who pair a gaggle of high-ceiling young players with the veteran presence – and perspective from having played nearly 100 playoff games – of Bregman. To a starting rotation that had the third-lowest park-adjusted ERA last year they added the best pitcher on the trade block in Crochet and a fiery competitor with interesting upside in Walker Buehler. He was on the mound for the end of the 2024 World Series and I’m predicting that he’ll be somewhere in the vicinity again when the 2025 championship is decided. HK
Dodgers over Orioles. It’s 1966 all over again, except this time, Baltimore lose to LA in five games. The Dodgers’ second consecutive title leads us neatly into 2026, which will be dominated by the unavoidable labor issues which are coming at the sport like a speeding locomotive. LA’s grip means split ownership groups taking sides and clarion calls for a salary cap. The Dodgers just have too much talent, for way too much money. Is their roster fair? Does it spoil MLB? Well, as they say, don’t hate the player, hate the game. And that’s why all hell is coming to the game, sooner rather than later. DL
