The new rule changes are …
A mixed bag. I’m already on record as being for the pitch clock. As someone who loved watching how hitters approached the shift, however, it feels like a strategic element has been removed for no good reason. HF
I dig them. Faster games! New strategies! Does the manager use one of his mound visits to prevent a clock violation? Does the batter try not to jump out of the box knowing he can’t do so again? I mostly can’t wait to see everyone lose their minds. MJ
There will be hits! Base stealing! Bunts? Action! It’ll be just as it was before we settled into the extended pacing, fidgeting and ball-scratching that has dominated the game for the past 20 or so years. And, yes, you can have drama without long pauses between pitches in the postseason. I can’t wait not to wait. DL
Exceptional. While every tweak will improve the quality (and watchability) of the sport, the pitch clock is the real gamechanger. It cut 26 minutes off gametime in Spring Training this year. That may not seem like much, but that’s 26 minutes fewer of glove restrapping, dirt kicking, and other tedious habits. JP
MVP winners
In the AL, let’s give it to Shohei Ohtani for being Shohei Ohtani. It took Aaron Judge beating Roger Maris’s home-run record to prevent the Japanese star from winning last year. In the NL, Juan Soto has the inside track now that he has a full year with the San Diego Padres. HF
Going with the odds-on favorite in the AL, Ohtani, and getting a little spicy with Trea Turner in the NL. As evidenced by the WBC, Turner is only getting better. He’s hitting for more power, has elite speed and plays a mean shortstop. MJ
Turner is about to become more powerful than you can possibly imagine. NL East foes should be thankful for the new balanced schedule that means they won’t see the Phillies and their speedy five-tool star 19 times this season. Judge won the AL MVP last season because the voters have no idea what to do with Ohtani. You can’t tell me that there’s a player more valuable than one who makes 28 starts with a 2.33 ERA, who also hits 34 home runs. It’s just not possible. DL
Ohtani is a shoo-in this year in the AL. In the NL, another year removed from his ACL tear, Atlanta outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr’s potential return to 40/40 form would prove MVP-worthy. JP
Young player to watch
This is a cheat as he will turn 30 in July, but the new Boston Red Sox left fielder Masataka Yoshida is eligible for AL Rookie of the Year. Baseball fans saw what he can do during the World Baseball Classic and the now Xander Bogaerts-less Red Sox hope that Yoshida will produce. HF
Bobby Witt Jr may resurrect the young, rebuilding Kansas City Royals. This kid has all the tools for a monster season. I wouldn’t be surprised if he bats close to .300, bangs 30-plus homers, and knocks in 90-100 runs. MJ
Eyes will be on Anthony Volpe, because he’s a Yankee who grew up idolizing Derek Jeter and is about to begin his career in pinstripes in the same position. Baseball’s No 2 prospect, Baltimore infielder Gunnar Henderson, is more worthy of the attention. The kid had a 34-game cup of coffee last season, teasing power and speed, and more than holding his own. DL
Yoshida does not qualify as ‘young,’ but he’s a first-year player to favor. After being named to the opening day lineup, 20-year-old St Louis prospect Jordan Walker is a ‘properly’ young player to watch. JP
Cy Young winners
Photograph: Wilfredo Lee/AP
In the AL, let’s go with the New York Yankees’ Gerrit Cole. Something tells me he won’t have the same home run problems as he did last year. Meanwhile, the Milwaukee Brewers’ Corbin Burnes won the NL Cy Young in 2021 and pitched better than his 12-8 record last year: that sounds like a recipe for a big season. HF
Eventual NL winner Burnes is poised for a bounceback year with free-agency brewing. One of baseball’s most underrated talents, Framber Valdez, will sneak away with the AL Cy Young once he racks up 20+ wins as the Astros’ ace. MJ
How can you not love Sandy Alcántara? Miami’s reigning NL Cy Young winner is old school. Or at least as old school as you can get in 2023. He eats innings, throws complete games, and doesn’t just rely on blowing people away. In the AL, Mets fans are fully expecting Jacob deGrom to stay healthy in 2023. If he does, not only will Mets fans implode, but Texas will have their first-ever Cy Young winner. It’s a big “if” considering deGrom’s health record, but if you’ve spent any time following the Mets, this result seems inevitable. DL
Don’t bet against Alcántara repeating as the NL Cy Young winner – his ability to pitch deep into games is unparalleled in today’s game. In the AL, Toronto’s Alek Manoah may not have the strongest statline, but the Blue Jay passes the eye test and should continue improving in his third season. JP
AL East
This division was supposed to be a lot more competitive last year, but the Yankees won it by seven games thanks to Judge. It’s difficult to see them failing to repeat, although the Tampa Bay Rays and Toronto Blue Jays should be fighting for wildcard spots. HF
Slight nod to Toronto in large part because the Yankees continue to be plagued by injuries and will have to do some major patchworking. Meanwhile, the Blue Jays are DEEP. Deep rotation. Deep bench. Deep crop of prospects. They added three left-handed hitters this off-season including center fielder Kevin Kiermaier and left fielder Daulton Varsho who, paired with George Springer, make for a terrifying outfield defense. MJ
Folks are less hot on Toronto this year, which means this is the season they unseat the banged up Yankees. Their Manoah-led rotation is probably the deepest in the division, and now they have the gold gloved Kiermaier patrolling the outfield. DL
The Yankees will win the division, but for the first time in a long time, Baltimore will be the most intriguing team to watch. After turning the franchise around last season, Adley Rutschman, the Orioles’ highly touted young catcher, will be the face of a young team on the ascendant. JP
AL Central
As is often the case, no team stands out in the AL Central. So let’s give this one to the team that has Terry Francona as a manager. It does, however, seem doubtful that the Cleveland Guardians will their division by 11 games as they did last year. HF
The Guardians were a 92-win team that played like a 110-plus win team down the stretch last season. They have a deep pitching corps, and a solid new addition in first baseman Josh Bell. I don’t see a close second in this division. MJ
The Royals have a young core but their pitching is suspect. Minnesota added Joey Gallo, which is a terrible omen. Young Detroit aren’t ready, and the White Sox are a basket case. No, it’s Cleveland, again – keep an eye on infielder Andrés Giménez, who broke out last season. DL
Multiple injuries derailed an otherwise likely division-winning season for Minnesota last year and, barring a similar run of bad luck, the Twins will come out on top this time. JP
AL West
This is the year we see Ohtani and Mike Trout in the playoffs together, but it will have to be as a wildcard team. The Houston Astros will win the AL West again, whether you like it or not. HF
Lose Justin Verlander and still house the best pitching rotation in baseball? Check. The Astros are built not just on the principle of next man up but on the next man up becoming an instant star. MJ
We’re all waiting for the Angels to win – baseball neutrals that is, but they won’t win the division. That’s Houston’s prize for now and for the near future, even without Verlander. It’s a battle for second place as the Seattle Mariners build on their success in 2023, and take on an improved Angels rotation and a beefed up Texas-sized roster in Arlington. It’s a compelling enough competition to make up for a lack of division race. DL
Houston will win the division. After ending their 20-year playoff drought last year, however, Seattle are a threat to any AL team with postseason ambitions. Led by breakout-star Julio Rodriguez, the Mariners will have a good 2023 even though they won’t win the division. JP
NL East
New York Mets. The Atlanta Braves are favored once again, and will almost certainly make a playoff appearance. However, at some point the Mets’ strategy of throwing money at the problem has to pay dividends, right? They have to be thinking of things bigger than a mere wildcard spot after outspending their crosstown rivals. HF
It’s time to chop up the Braves’ stranglehold on the division. Despite losing Jacob deGrom and the injury to closer Edwin Diaz, the Mets’ pitching is in tip-top shape with two future Hall of Famers (Verlander and Max Scherzer) and Kodai Senga with his nasty forkball. The Mets should be a 100-win team again who – maybe just maybe – don’t crumble in September. MJ
The Phillies are better after their unlikely World Series run, adding Turner to an already potent lineup. The Mets are still in need of the big bat they found and lost in the Carlos Correa saga, and are now without Diaz, their bullpen linchpin. The Braves are still the class of the division, with their young, fiscally responsible and immensely talented roster, and will be for some time. DL
Philadelphia are the reigning NL champions and, in addition to bringing back most of last year’s team, they’ve added Turner. Nevertheless, since 2018, the NL East has been the fiefdom of the Braves and, with Philadelphia’s injury issues, there’s no reason to think this will change. JP
NL Central
Milwaukee Brewers. Burnes is my NL Cy Young pick, so he should help guide his team to the division title. The St Louis Cardinals are going to make it tough though. HF
Provided no one takes a major tumble, the Cardinals will repeat last year’s performance: Win a weak division with around 90 wins and then get demolished in the postseason. MJ
St Louis will find a way to piece together enough pitching to frustrate Brewers fans once again, which is a familiar result for Brew Crew fans. The fun in this division is watching the Pirates’ prospects grow into players the team will trade away or won’t re-sign. DL
The NL Central is really the (all-)star-studded Cardinals’ to lose. The Brewers, armed with one of the league’s best pitching rotations and hungry after missing the playoffs last season (for this first time since 2017), remain St Louis’s biggest threat. JP
NL West
It’s time for the San Diego Padres to finally become the fun, championship-caliber team that we’ve been hoping for these last few seasons. An MVP season from Soto will help them fend off the weakened but still dangerous Los Angeles Dodgers. HF
Now entering his first full year in San Diego, Soto is set for a monster season; you could see how dialed in he was during the WBC. And the Padres lineup is just unfair. If Blake Snell can regain anything close to his 2018 form, watch out. MJ
If San Diego don’t win the NL West and make it to the World Series this year it’s a complete failure for the club. That’s the bar. You don’t spend like the Padres have to settle for a second-place finish, and an early playoff exit. DL
San Diego traded for perennial MVP-candidate Soto last August and, just 10 days later, lost slugger Fernando Tatis, Jr to a drug suspension. With both bats in their lineup this season, the Padres will be able to show off their considerable offensive potential. JP
AL wildcards
Angels, Blue Jays, Rays. HF
Yankees, Rays, Mariners. MJ
Mariners, Orioles, Yankees. DL
Mariners, Blue Jays, Guardians. JP
NL wildcards
Braves, Dodgers, Cardinals. HF
Brewers, Dodgers, Phillies. MJ
Mets, Phillies, Dodgers. DL
Phillies, Mets, Dodgers. JP
ALCS
Yankees over Astros. HF
Astros over Yankees. MJ
Astros over Blue Jays. DL
Yankees over Mariners. JP
NLCS
Padres over Mets. HF
Padres over Mets. MJ
Braves over Padres. DL
Braves over Padres. JP
World Series
Padres 4-3 Yankees. Yankees fans may think they’re due: they haven’t appeared in a World Series since winning it all back in 2009, but that’s nothing on San Diego. Not only have the Padres never won a championship, they haven’t even played for one since 1998. However, with multiple MVP candidates in tow, they have their best chance to correct that, although whoever emerges from the AL (Yankees or otherwise) will push them to the limit.
Padres 4-2 Astros. Even though Verlander struggled a bit last postseason, he will be hugely missed by the Astros. Meanwhile, the Padres doled out cash this offseason like there’s no tomorrow. I don’t know how any pitching rotation, even one as great as the Astros’, can deal with a lineup that could well begin with Fernando Tatis Jr, Soto, Manny Machado and Bogaerts. MJ
Braves 4-3 Astros. I don’t want a Braves-Astros World Series any more than you do, but these two franchises are just too well run to be denied, and they’re going to be annoying us for a very long time. Look at Atlanta’s rotation: Spencer Strider, Max Fried, Charlie Morton and Kyle Wright. Could be worse, right? And now Ozzie Albies is poised to make up for his 2022 injuries and bolster a lineup that also brought in Sean Murphy. It’s relentless. Meanwhile, Houston, who lose top talent and replace them with ease, turn the trick again by making up for the loss of Verlander. Still, it’s not enough to beat the Braves, who are pretty much the model MLB franchise. DL
Braves 4-2 Yankees. The Yankees and Braves have pitching rotations which rank among the league’s best, meaning that this series won’t be decided on the mound. While Judge gives the Yankees one of the best weapons in the game, the Braves have four hitters (Acuña Jr, Austin Riley, Matt Olson and Michael Harris II) that rank among the 20 favorites to win NL MVP this season, which will make the difference in this series. Plus, Atlanta have been there recently. JP
