Mitch Garver Trade Grades: A Win-Win for Twins and Rangers

The first trade since the lockout was lifted seemingly came out of nowhere. Certainly, you wouldn't have guessed that the Twins would trade their starting catcher to the Rangers for shortstop Isiah Kiner-Falefa and minor league righthander Ronny Henriquez.

Yet that’s exactly what happened Saturday morning. This is not a blockbuster deal, though the two players at the center of this trade, Garver and Kiner-Falefa, are solid big-league players with specific skills that their new teams need. Indeed, this is the kind of pleasant, mutually beneficial exchange that is easy to get behind. With that said, it’s time to grade the trade for each team.

The Deal

Rangers acquire: C Mitch Garver

Twins acquire: SS Isiah Kiner-Falefa, RHP Ronny Henriquez

Matt Blewett/USA TODAY Sports

Grading Texas’s side of the deal

Back in late November, the Rangers splurged on two of the top four free agents in shortstop Corey Seager and second baseman/shortstop Marcus Semien. They had just christened their new ballpark with a fanless, pandemic season in 2020 and then a putrid 102-loss campaign last in ’21. In committing $500 million to two players they were signaling to the baseball world that they were Going For It! The only problem? There was no guarantee that they’d win.

This was the projected Texas lineup before Saturday’s trade:

1. Willie Calhoun, DH
2. Marcus Semien, 2B
3. Corey Seager, SS
4. Nathaniel Lowe, 1B
5. Adolis García, CF
6. Kole Calhoun, RF
7. Nick Solak, LF
8. Isiah Kiner-Falefa, 3B
9. Jonah Heim/Jose Trevino, C

Here’s what it looks like now:

1. Willie Calhoun, DH
2. Marcus Semien, 2B
3. Corey Seager, SS
4. Mitch Garver, C
5. Nathaniel Lowe, 1B
6. Adolis García, CF
7. Kole Calhoun, RF
8. Nick Solak, LF
9. Andy Ibáñez, 3B

(Lineup projections via Roster Resource)

Look at that upgrade! The Rangers replaced what was a platoon of No. 9 hitters at catcher with Garver, who in 2019 was the best hitting catcher by a longshot (157 OPS+). Since that year, Garver, 31, leads all catchers with a 138 OPS+ and a .292 isolated power, or ISO, which measures a player’s raw power (extra-base hits divided by at bats). For all his power, Garver is not a one-dimensional bopper; he ranks within the 93rd percentile in framing, per Statcast. The one concern with Garver, who is under contract for two more seasons, is his health. He was limited to just 68 games last season because of injuries to his groin, rib cage and lower back. He has never caught more than 86 games, and never played in more than 102, in any of his five MLB seasons. Still, if he stays healthy, he’ll be a major force for the Rangers.

With the arrivals of Seager and Semien to Texas, Kiner-Falefa became expendable. A Gold Glove shortstop in 2020, he was going to slide over to third base to make room for Seager. That would’ve been suitable, but Kiner-Falefa wasn’t the Rangers’ long-term solution at third. Instead, their third baseman of the future is Josh Jung, the No. 9 overall prospect in baseball, according to FanGraphs. Jung could’ve cracked the big-league roster and made an impact sometime this season, if not as soon as Opening Day, had he not undergone left-shoulder surgery last month to repair his torn labrum, which pretty much ruled him out for all of 2022.

As things stand, it’ll be Ibáñez who starts at third. He was fairly productive last season (.277/.321/.435, 1.7 WAR in 76 games and 272 plate appearances), though he’s better suited as a utility infielder than an everyday third baseman.

The Rangers still aren’t quite a playoff team yet; their rotation, even signing Jon Gray in November and Martín Perez on Friday, definitely needs some work before they can truly make a dent in the AL West and loaded AL wild-card field. Another trade or two to add starters—the Reds and A’s are both looking to deal the top half of their rotations—would put Texas into the postseason conversation this season.

Grade: A

Grading Minnesota’s side of the deal

Trading one of the game’s best offensive catchers looks like a step backward for the Twins. But don’t look at this as the first domino to fall; they aren’t tearing it all down. After all, they did extend Byron Buxton for seven years and $100 million in November. Instead, they are in a bit of a transition. That’s how you should view this move. Maybe they realize they don’t have the pieces to contend this season, but with a little bit of retooling, they could be back in the playoffs in 2023.

First, let’s look at the guy who will replace Garver behind the plate for Minnesota, Ryan Jeffers. The quick description of Jeffers on his FanGraphs bio page sums up his skillset like this: “A physical beast with a power over hit offensive profile, Jeffers has the talent to be an everyday catcher but needs to improve his ability to control the running game.” That sounds a lot like a young Mitch Garver. In fact, Jeffers’s scouting report is better than Garver’s was in 2018 when he graduated from the minors.

(Prospects are graded on a 20–80 scale. The first number is their current grade, with the second being their future potential.)

Depending on how soon Jeffers develops, this could actually be a net gain for the Twins because of the Kiner-Falefa addition. Minnesota desperately needed to improve its shortstop defense. Jorge Polanco is an offense-first middle infielder whose glove is better suited at second. Kiner-Falefa fits the mold of a traditional Golden Age shortstop—speed and contact to go along with his defense—and that should balance out some of the all-or-nothing sluggers in the Twins lineup. Ronny Henriquez, who doesn’t turn 22 until June, could end up being an average big-league pitcher, but he’s still a few years away from reaching that point.