Just as actors are congregating on the picket line in Los Angeles for the first time in more than 40 years, audiences are flocking to the cinemas to see their films in unprecedented post-pandemic numbers.
Tom Cruise’s new film, Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One has beaten its own franchise record this week, making $15.5m on its opening day of release, including $7m in the US; a million more than the sixth instalment managed over the same time period in 2018.
By releasing early in the week, Paramount’s blockbuster extends its “opening weekend” numbers over five days – a tactic also employed by some recent James Bond films to boost numbers. Predictions suggest Mission: Impossible’s final audience figures on Sunday will be around $95m in the US and $160m internationally.
Such numbers would mean the tentpole release would recoup much of its $290m budget before it’s been out for a week, and mean Cruise is likely to repeat last year’s trick of re-energising the Covid-battered box office. Top Gun: Maverick, his belated sequel to the 80s aviators hit, took $1.5bn in 2022 and was credited by many, including Steven Spielberg, with saving the cinematic experience.
Glowing reviews and energetic marketing – focusing on why the new film’s spectacular stunts are best seen on a big screen – are expected to help Cruise’s latest follow suit.
Such a strong start was, however, also enjoyed by the latest Indiana Jones film, which took $60m on its opening day two weeks ago ahead of a $130m opening weekend. Yet the film then sputtered and is currently on $250m – $50m shy of its budget.
Yet worse returns have been clocked for Pixar’s Elemental and DC superhero movie The Flash, both of which were held in high hopes by their studios.
The new Mission: Impossible has a week and a half to dominate cinemas before the double-headed threat of Barbie and Oppenheimer. Both Greta Gerwig’s perky comedy and Christopher Nolan’s epic atomic-bomb drama are released worldwide on 21 July, and buzz around their battle has boosted pre-sales for both.
Cruise has professed enthusiasm rather than anxiety about the looming competition, declaring that he has bought tickets for Oppenheimer next Friday and Barbie the following day.
AMC cinemas in the US said that at least 20,000 of its members had booked to see both films on the same day, and many exhibitors globally are promoting the concept of this unlikely double bill.
Even without such smart marketing, both Barbie and Oppenheimer are being sold as “event cinema”. Barbie is billed as best seen en masse and, perhaps, after having visited the cinema’s licensed concession stand.
Oppenheimer, meanwhile, was shot on Imax, and as with many of Nolan’s films, audiences are strongly encouraged to see it on Imax screens – or, at least, the very largest possible. The film’s un-family friendly subject matter, as well as its R-rating in the US, may however limit its final takings. Tracking for Oppenheimer’s opening weekend currently stands as $43m in the US while Barbie’s is more than double, at $93m.
Bookmakers William Hill said on Friday that Barbie was 3/1 to become the highest-grossing film the year, with only The Super Mario Bros Movie (1/4) ahead of it in the betting.
Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One was 10/1 with forthcoming superhero movie The Marvels down to 14/1.
Tom Cruise’s Mission Impossible: Dead Reckoning Part 1 is also amongst the frontrunners at 10/1, with The Marvels (14/1) likewise in the reckoning. Dark horse Wonka came in at 33/1: the first trailer for Paul (Paddington) King’s origins story about Willy Wonka starring Timothée Chalamet was warmly received earlier this week.
Reviews for Barbie are embargoed until midnight BST on 18 July, with Oppenheimer at 5pm the following day.
