Bristol's popular caravan club face an uncertain future after a Government minister overturned their planning permission to move to the banks of the River Avon - because he said he was worried people could die if it floods.
The Bristol Caravan Club is being moved off its site at Baltic Wharf on the harbourside close to the Cottage pub, because the city council have plans to build apartments there.
The Caravan Club had struck a deal to move to the old police dog and horse training centre on the other side of the Cumberland Basin at Clanage Road, between Ashton Court and the River Avon - but the move has been mired in planning controversy.
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The Caravan Club's initial application to convert the police training centre into a caravan site with 62 pitches was given permission by Bristol City Council planners, but was 'called-in' by the Government because of fears of flooding. Then, last summer a Government planning inspector said it would be OK, and gave them permission for the move, pointing out that the Caravan Club brought £1 million a year into the city's tourism industry.
The planning inspector said she was satisfied there would be enough warning of a flood, given the Avon Gorge's high tides alongside any huge storm could be predicted in advance.
But now the Minister of State for Housing, Stuart Andrew MP, acting on behalf of the Secretary of State, has overturned that decision and refused the Caravan Club permission to move, after the Environment Agency again objected and said they feared people could die if it floods quickly.
In his written judgement on the planning saga, Mr Andrew said he preferred to believe the Environment Agency, and conceded that how high the floodwaters might rise if a storm or flood coincided with a high tide - and how quickly that might happen - are 'very difficult to predict'.
The Caravan Club and the Environment Agency argued over what happened earlier this year, when Storm Eunice struck Bristol and closed the city down, with dire warnings of floods and high winds. The Caravan Club submitted that despite what was described as the worst storm in 30 years coinciding with a high tide, the warnings from the Met Office and the Environment Agency came hours beforehand, and there would have been plenty of time to evacuate the caravan site, if it was up and running then.
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But the Environment Agency said any future storm, tidal surge or flood might not be as easy to predict. Mr Andrew's report said: "The Secretary of State has also had regard to the Environment Agency’s evidence, as set out in its representation of 4 March, that in the case of Storm Eunice, there was a huge variation in forecasts and significant uncertainty continuing right up until the event.
"He further notes the Environment Agency’s evidence that the timing of the storm in relation to the extreme tidal range in the Bristol Channel makes a significant difference to the peak height of the water in the River Avon and this is very difficult to predict. Overall, the Secretary of State is more persuaded by the Environment Agency’s evidence on this matter. He considers that the specific events and circumstances relating to Storm Eunice do not provide strong evidence in support of the Appellant’s case, and do not assuage his concerns about flood risk in the circumstances of this case," the report said.
The Government minister said evacuating the site in enough time was too risky because it relied on human behaviour.
"The safety of the development would be totally dependent on the timely actions of the site wardens and the co-operation of all occupiers, and that the Flood Warning Evacuation Plan is based on the prerequisite that everyone would have left the site in advance of a flood.
"He notes there is no dispute that if the flood warnings and flood alerts were not acted upon promptly and the site flooded there would be disastrous consequences that could lead to loss of life," he added.
"He considers that in the light of the potential risk to life, a highly precautionary approach is justified. Overall, he is more persuaded by the Environment Agency’s evidence and considers that the Agency’s assessment of the potential issues which may be encountered during an evacuation is more realistic.
"Like the Environment Agency, he considers that at every stage of the evacuation process, the applicant is dependent upon fallible processes. He further agrees that there remains a residual risk of failure, whether through the failure of forecasting, the failure of the warning system, the failure to execute the FWEP properly or the risks inherent in the unpredictable aspects of human behaviour. Like the Environment Agency,he further considers that the Applicant has no plans for managing those residual risks," the report added.
So the Caravan Club now no longer have planning permission to move to the Clanage Road site, and face an uncertain future at Baltic Wharf, where the council's own housing company Goram Homes have plans for 166 flats there - plans which have triggered a long-running campaign against the development, which has even seen a group of women 'marry' the trees on the Baltic Wharf site.
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