Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky earlier this week distanced himself from Washington's warnings of an imminent war with Russia. It is not the first time that the Ukrainian leader has taken an opposing view to NATO since the Ukraine-Russian crisis began, while at the same time relying on the alliance for its military support.
With his country facing the possibility of Russian invasion, Zelensky struck an unexpected note when addressed the world’s media last Monday. "We are told that the Russian invasion will begin on February 16. I therefore declare that this day will be the day of unity in Ukraine," said the Ukrainian president.
In a provocative move, Zelensky also declared that joining the NATO alliance would guarantee his country's survival, defending an ambition that has enraged his powerful Russian neighbour. But he did not mention any particular additional military mobilisation to face the threat of thousands of Russian troops amassed on Ukraine’s borders. Instead, he called on his compatriots to sing the national anthem at 10am on the morning of February 16 and to raise the flag to "show the world our unity".
Anything but panic
The 44-year-old former television star, a political novice until his election as Ukraine's president in 2019, has never lost his cool as tensions have soared in recent months, not even when Washington warned, in an increasingly urgent tone, that an "imminent" war could begin "without warning".
"What should we do? Only one thing: remain calm," he repeated last month in an address to his 40 million fellow citizens. "We will celebrate Easter in April. And then in May, as usual - the sun, the holidays, the barbecues," he added.
A benign response that seemed out of step with the many alarm bells rung by Washington and other Western capitals. But this is not the first time that Zelensky has treated the alarmist rhetoric of the United States and NATO countries with a certain scorn.
It has even become something of a trademark for the president since the beginning of the crisis with Russia. At the end of January, he had asked US President Joe Biden to "calm down", while the White House was already warning about the possible imminence of a Russian attack. "The captains should not leave the ship. I don’t think we have a Titanic here," he added, suggesting that Ukraine did not feel it was on the brink.
Zelensky also called last week for Western countries to "provide proof" that Russian President Vladimir Putin was preparing to launch his tanks on Kiev.
Ukraine was already at loggerheads with Russia, mired in a crisis since 2014 and the outbreak of war in the country's separatist east. Zelensky’s predecessor, Petro Poroshenko, was suffering from low popularity.
"In the country as a whole, there is a sense of familiarity with this situation, they have been living with a Russian threat since 2014. They don’t respect leaders who show panic," said James Sherr, a specialist on Russia and Ukraine at the Estonian Institute of International Politics at the International Centre for Defence and Security in Tallinn, speaking with FRANCE 24.
Another reason behind the Ukrainian president's bravado is Ukraine’s current economic situation. "The economic situation has been getting better since Zelensky's arrival and the most important is to not play into Russia’s hand and panic. Panic would only serve Russia's interests," Andrew Wilson, a specialist on Ukraine at University College London, told FRANCE 24.
It is also important to remember Zelensky’s own background. He grew up in the Russian-speaking region of southeast Ukraine. "Even if Zelensky grew disillusioned with Putin, there is still a sense that war would only arise as a consequence of some provocation because he believes Russia see Ukraine as an ally," said Ryhor Nizhnikau, a specialist in Ukrainian politics at the Finnish Institute of International Affairs, speaking with FRANCE 24.
Between a Russian hammer and a NATO anvil
The Ukrainian president is not content to simply play down the risk of a military conflict - he also sometimes throws fuel on the fire. He has made repeated appeals to NATO allies for weapons and has repeatedly thanked Biden and British Prime Minister Boris Johnson for sending military equipment that will enable Ukraine to "withstand" the Russian threat.
This mercurial approach from Zelensky can be divisive. "When people need reassurance, he makes jokes. When people needs strength, he emphasises the level of Russian threat when he should be standing firm against Moscow," said Nizhnikau.
But the Ukrainian president has little choice. "He has to do everything he can to get maximum help from NATO countries while trying not to increase military pressure from Russia," said Julia Friedrich, a specialist in security issues between Russia and Ukraine at the Global Public Policy Institute, speaking with FRANCE 24.
The other option, suggested in the media, would be for Zelensky to opt for a "Finlandisation" of Ukraine - that is to say, to adopt a neutral posture towards Russia and NATO using Finland’s diplomatic model. But "the Finnish solution is not an alternative because, in 2014, when Russia attacked, Ukraine was neutral", explained Wilson.
A question of political survival
Zelensky’s balancing act is also due to the internal political situation in Ukraine and, in particular, Zelensky's popularity rating, which has fallen sharply since he came to power in 2019.
"His main problem is his political survival. Any Ukrainian leader who gives into demands risks being overthrown. And there is a growing concern that Washington or Europe will seal a deal with Russia on Ukraine's back. That would be a political death sentence for him," said Sherr.
"He must start thinking about his re-election campaign," agreed Nizhnikau. The March 2024 deadline may seem far away, but Zelensky must already start courting a new electorate. “He can no longer play the card of the newcomer in the political arena," confirmed Friedrich.
The search for votes is not easy, most of the market has already been staked out. Poroshenko’s party unites the Ukrainians who are mostly in favour of NATO integration, while several politicians are already trying to seduce those who want to get closer to Russia.
"Zelensky doesn’t have a clear electoral base. He is left with the voters in his native region of the south-east who do not want a forced integration into NATO, without refusing it, and who consider Russia to be a friendly country even if they reject the Russian leaders," said Nizhnikau.
During this crisis, it is in Zelensky’s interest to cultivate a sense of ambiguity both on the international scene and in the national political arena. This has allowed him to avoid appearing as a NATO puppet "while at the same time gaining political and military support from Western countries", noted Wilson.
This is a dangerous game to play. Zelensky can sometimes appear as someone who does not know what political foot to stand on, concluded Nizhnikau. “And this can attract criticism from every part of the political spectrum and weaken his leadership at what looks set to be a critical moment for the country.”
This article has been translated from the original in French.
