Political commentators, historians, journalists and activists on Monday warned in leading French media outlets of the cataclysm likely to engulf west Africa if fighting breaks out in Niger between the forces that overthrew President Mohamed Bazoum on 26 July and troops from the surrounding countries.
In an article published in the leftwing Liberation, the experts pleaded for war to be prevented even though the coup leaders had defied an ultimatum to restore Bazoum to power or face military consequences from the 15-nation regional bloc Ecowas.
"Wars in the Sahel are not conventional," wrote the 24 co signatories. "They dramatically affect populations whose lives are already very vulnerable; they involve the mobilisation of myriad irregular armed actors (rebels, militias, traffickers) with complex cross-border connections; they trigger cascading effects that no one can claim to control.
"The risk for Niger is not only of being exposed to external military intervention, but also of descending into civil war, given the current polarisation of the political camps, which external intervention would only inflame. Yet another war in the Sahel will have only one winner: the jihadist movements that for years have been building their territorial expansion on the failure of states."
The authors want regional and international strategists to consider the reasons why the Niger putschists have so quickly managed to attract not only large sections of the army but also civil society and several trade unions.
Reasons
They say the coup leaders have been able to gain credibility using patriotic fervour from anti-French sentiments and anger with a political system.
"If a peaceful and genuinely transformative way out of this crisis exists, and if it is to be exploited, it must be found in an overhaul of the political economy that has deepened the social divisions and structural inequalities of recent years and fuelled the discontent of young urban dwellers."
An editorial in Le Monde suggests that France has been unable to refashion its role in former colonies.
"The new uncertainty can be analysed as the latest defeat in the "war on terrorism" and proof of the inadequacy of a primarily military response to the specificities of the jihadism in West Africa that the French army has come up against," said the paper.
"This situation has become even more perilous for Paris, especially considering that military deployments have constituted France's main engagement with Africa in recent years – trade has been modest, despite the allegations of supposed neo-colonial plunder.
"Born of a failure in terms of security, the questioning of France's role is profound. France seems to have the greatest difficulty entering into the history that is being written today on this part of the African continent. Yet the urgency is manifest."
Even if a military campaign were to start, researcher Dengiyefa Angalapu underlined the difficulties that would be faced.
"At the north-west border, in most villages, sometimes there is only one house separating Niger from Nigeria. So, you have Nigerians who have blood ties with Nigeriens. That's a very close relationship," she told RFI.
"If there is an outright war in Niger, you would have lots of people moving into Nigeria; as we cannot stop them. While, here, we have not even been able to defeat Boko Haram. And the insurgents, they themselves move to Niger to find refuge where there is military action against them."
