Over the past week it has become painfully clear how precarious Arsenal's good form really was. Between December and April Mikel Arteta managed to find a system that maximised the undoubted potential of his thin squad and deserves credit for that. In the space of a week though it has become evident that this was Goldilocks football. For it to work everything had to be just right .
Among other things the Gunners needed a 'number six' capable of elite press resistance and progressive distribution. They needed a set of full backs capable of finding the perfect balance between supporting the attack and providing defensive cover. They needed a central striker capable of linking play in deeper areas to create space for their wide forwards.
Through long-term injuries for Thomas Partey and Kieran Tierney, and a loss of form for Alexandre Lacazette, Arteta had lost the "specificity" that was by his own admission crucial to play his style of 4-3-3. So having lost the tenuous balance required to guide Arsenal across the tight rope that led to Champions League football, how exactly would the Spaniard cope? On Saturday we found out.
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Going into the clash with Brighton there was only one real selection decision for Arteta to make. Despite some calls for Mohamed Elneny to come into the midfield, Albert Sambi Lokonga was the only real option to come in and play the deep role that Partey had perfected. The big decision was to come at left back.
In the Monday night defeat to Crystal Palace Nuno Tavares had started the game, but only made it to half time before being hooked early by his manager for the second time in as many starts. For the second period at Selhurst Park Granit Xhaka was moved to left back, and while Bukayo Saka and Cedric were options, it seemed it would be a straight shoot out between Tavares and the Swiss international for the starting spot in Arteta's back four.
As football.london broke ahead of kick off it was Xhaka who Arteta turned to at left back. The decision represented something of a deja vu for Arsenal after the 29-year-old had been asked to fill in in the position at almost the exact same stage of last season when Tierney was once again out with a knee injury.
On paper it was possible to understand why the decision was made. Unlike last campaign the Gunners now operated with a right sided bias in their offense, with 39% of their attacks coming down that side of the pitch as opposed to just 33% down the right. Where Tierney had been the one bombing forward to support the attack down the left hand side last season, this time around it was Cedric getting forward to support things on the right where he had formed a formidable attacking trio with Martin Odegaard and Bukayo Saka.
With this in mind, as Arteta sought to find a balance between his full backs Xhaka coming it at left back made a bit more sense. The Swiss international's midfield instincts made him the perfect candidate to drift central and provide extra passing options and defensive cover in a similar manner to what Takehiro Tomiyasu had done so effectively on the right hand side earlier this season. But with balance of Arsenal's 4-3-3 so finely poised it would only take one domino falling for the rest to come toppling down.
When in possession the Gunners look to adopt a 2-3-5 set up. Recently the middle of those three midfield spots has been occupied by Xhaka, with Tierney playing the inverted full back role on the the left and Thomas Partey drifting ever so slightly right to make up the final man, while Cedric got up to support the attack and form the devastating right sided threesome that we mentioned before.
Shifting Xhaka over to the left hand side, with Sambi Lokonga playing in the middle, essentially means that the balance of the team is disrupted. Either Odegaard has to drop deeper to help the build up, which means that Arsenal lose their most creative player in the final third, or Cedric has to stay back, which means that the Gunners lose much of their width down the right hand side.
When asked to explain the decision Arteta revealed that he felt their weaknesses in the Brighton side he felt playing Emile Smith Rowe in Xhaka's left eight position could exploit. "Especially the way I thought they were going to play and the space they were going to attack, it fit well to play Emile in that position," he said in his post-match press conference. "Especially because we thought that space was going to be there for Granit to use which it was, but we didn’t use it."
On reflection though, solving one problem by moving Xhaka to left back only ended up creating several others that stunted the Arsenal attack. In fairness to Arteta his slightly remorseful tone did indicate that he felt that he might have got things wrong. "After the defeat the decision that you make (doesn't mean anything)," the Spaniard said. "You have to write it before the match, after it’s too late."
For Arsenal's sake the hope has to be that Arteta has learned from his mistake. Restoring Xhaka to the midfield may be a risk considering Tavares' lack of defensive awareness, but with the amount of problems that playing the Swiss international at left back creates in the attack, surely it's time to admit that the benefits do not outweigh the costs.
