The transfer market is a science that few have mastered, yet Mikel Arteta seems to have got to the core of the matter pretty succinctly this week.
"To win the Premier League you have to be the best. That's why you have to strengthen," he said, predicting that next season will be the toughest season in Premier League history.
It's remarkably similar to one of Pep Guardiola's mantras, that every season gets harder for Manchester City, so if they stand still, they will be overtaken.
However, if there is a side who has 'mastered' the transfer market, that side is City, and it's telling that Arteta feels the only way to make up the gap between City and Arsenal is to spend money. When plotting his transfers, he could do worse than look at mistakes that Liverpool and Manchester United have made in recent years.
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While City have dominated the Premier League over the last six years, only once in that time has a side offered them a title race for more than one season - when Liverpool followed up their 97 points in 2019 that only secured second place, with the title the year after.
In 2018, United were (a distant) second to City, and were sixth the year after. In 2021, United were second again, but in 2022 were sixth again. Liverpool were second that year, but tailed off in the season just gone to scramble for a fifth-placed finish that probably flatters them a little.
Most summers after a side has finished second to City, their transfer activity has let them down. In the summer of 2018, United 'strengthened' their side with Fred and Diogo Dalot. In 2021, United spent big but their scattergun approach of signing big names backfired, with Jadon Sancho, Raphael Varane and Cristiano Ronaldo leading them to sixth again. In 2022, Liverpool tried to build on second place by signing Darwin Nunez and Fabio Carvalho last year.
When City finished second in 2020, they went out and spent £100m on Ruben Dias and Nathan Ake to fix their centre-back issues. Liverpool's title defence saw them add Diogo Jota, Thiago Alcantara and Kostas Tsimikas. They won 30 fewer points the year after, in part due to injury issues to Virgil Van Dijk, just as City had experienced with Aymeric Laporte the year before.
Injuries are the unknowns in the transfer industry. You can plan perfectly, but nobody can foresee a key injury a few weeks into the season. City, though, deserve credit for signing versatile players who can cope with those setbacks more often than not. And when City were punished for one poor transfer window - when they failed to replace Vincent Kompany in 2019 - they didn't make the same mistake a year later.
City have also got a good record of strengthening while on top, adding players like Riyad Mahrez, Jack Grealish, Rodri, Dias, Erling Haaland and Julian Alvarez to make their title-winning sides better over the years. Liverpool have let their brilliant side run slightly past its sell-by date and are now facing a more urgent rebuild.
Arsenal will be looking to follow in the footsteps of Liverpool in 2019 and 2020, finishing a close second after looking favourites for most of the season, before winning the title the year after. Arteta has seen how Liverpool and United have wasted opportunities to keep up the pressure on City for more than 12 months, so it's no surprise he's looking for his club to spend money this summer, and expecting the quality to rise across the board.
While Arsenal were brilliant for most of the season, they were helped by an inconsistent United side, Liverpool's existential crisis, and awful seasons for Tottenham and Chelsea. They won't get the same free-run at second as they did this season again.
Maybe that's why they are in for Declan Rice, and also Chelsea's Kai Havertz. While Havertz isn't the most exciting addition Arteta could think of, if he can help the German rediscover his Leverkusen form it could be a dangerous signing. Rice would be a statement transfer, and replace the outgoing Granit Xhaka in a key position.
If anyone knows the value of making a strong side stronger, it's Arteta. He'll have seen City do it over and over, and he knows they will do the same again this summer. So all Arsenal can do in response is get stronger too.
