No one is feeling the political heartburn more than Speaker Mike Johnson as the House takes its time finalizing foreign aid bills for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan.
Why it matters: The sooner Johnson gets the bills to the floor, the more protection he can demand from Democrats.
- One fewer Republican will be in Johnson's corner as of Friday, when Rep. Mike Gallagher (R-Wis.) will leave Congress.
- The longer Johnson negotiates the bills, the more they'll get loaded with potential poison pills that could blow up a deal.
- Most agonizingly, dragging this out puts Johnson at risk of having to make public commitments to Democrats ahead of foreign aid votes to bail him out from a motion to vacate by Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.).
The big picture: Johnson — like former House Speaker Kevin McCarthy before him — risks being abandoned by his would-be saviors.
- Multiple Democrats are on record as being ready to bail out Johnson if there's a motion to vacate.
- Johnson can't take them for granted, especially if Ukraine aid doesn't make the floor or the process turns into an ugly partisan fight.
The southern border is a potential powder keg, as House Republicans are demanding its inclusion despite agitating against border language in the Senate aid bill.
- Unexpected members like Rep. Nicole Malliotokis (R-N.Y.) are considering voting against advancing the aid bills over the lack of border policy changes.
- Aside from the border, the biggest sticking points are humanitarian aid for Gaza and significant aid for Ukraine.
The bottom line: Republicans are accusing Johnson of "steering everything toward what [Sen. Majority Leader] Chuck Schumer wants," as Rep. Thomas Massie (R-Ky.) said today when joining Greene's motion to vacate effort.
- But nothing would get Schumer what he wants more than House Republicans joining Democrats on a discharge petition to force a vote on Schumer's foreign aid bill.
