House speaker Mike Johnson returns to work on Monday facing mounting pressure to advance a Ukraine aid package as well as the threat of an intra-party revolt if he does so.
The Republican speaker has indicated the House will take up the issue of Ukraine funding this week, as the chamber reconvenes after a two-week recess. But many hard-right members of Johnson’s conference remain staunchly opposed to additional Ukraine aid, and one of them has already threatened to oust the speaker, complicating the potential timing of a floor vote.
As the House adjourned last month, Johnson vowed that the chamber would soon “take the necessary steps to address the supplemental funding request”, which includes money for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan. The Senate passed a $95bn foreign aid package in February, but Johnson indicated that the House would consider an amended proposal when members return to Washington.
“We’ve been talking to all the members, especially now over the district work period,” Johnson told Fox News last Sunday. “When we return after this work period, we’ll be moving a product, but it’s going to, I think, have some important innovations.”
Those innovations might include sending money to Kyiv as a loan or redirecting Russian assets seized under the Rebuilding Economic Prosperity and Opportunity (Repo) for Ukrainians Act. But even those changes are unlikely to sway the most vocal Ukraine skeptics in the House Republican conference, such as congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia.
Before the House adjourned last month, Greene introduced a motion to remove Johnson as speaker in protest of the passage of a large government funding package, but she stopped short of forcing a vote on the matter. Speaking to CNN on Wednesday, Greene suggested she may soon push for a vote on Johnson’s ouster if he moves forward with a Ukraine aid bill.
“I’m not saying I have a red line or a trigger, and I’m not saying I don’t have a red line or trigger,” Greene said. “But I’m going to tell you right now: funding Ukraine is probably one of the most egregious things that he can do.”
Even as Johnson faces a challenge from the hard-right flank of his conference, other House Republicans insist the chamber must take action to assist Ukraine. They warn that further inaction, after months of ignoring the White House’s demands to approve more funding, will only embolden Russian president Vladimir Putin.
“We are at a critical juncture on the ground that is beginning to be able to impact not only morale of the Ukrainians that are fighting, but also their ability to fight,” congressman Mike Turner, the Republican chair of the House intelligence committee, told CBS News last Sunday. “Putin knows this. This is obviously an area where we cannot allow Putin to win.”
Johnson already has two legislative options to approve more money for Ukraine, the Senate-approved package and a smaller $66bn bill introduced by a bipartisan group of House members. The second proposal would provide military-only funding for Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, omitting the $10bn for humanitarian aid included in the Senate bill. The House legislation also outlines a number of border security provisions, a bid to sway some Republican members who are otherwise wary of sending more money to Kyiv.
“I am hopeful that the speaker will put the bill on the floor or an amended version of the bill on the floor so that we can once and for all ensure that our allies have the aid and support that they need,” congressman Mike Lawler, a Republican of New York and one of the House bill’s co-sponsors, told CNN last Sunday.
Of course, most House Democrats would prefer to pass the Senate package, and they have attempted to bypass Johnson to force a vote on the measure. Last month, Democrats revealed a discharge petition, which would trigger a floor vote on the Senate bill if a majority of House members signed on to it. But the discharge petition remains dozens of signatures short of the necessary 218, so Democrats will probably have to work with Johnson to approve more Ukraine funding.
Johnson will similarly need the support of at least some Democrats to get any aid package across the finish line. The speaker is expected to introduce a Ukraine funding bill under a procedural mechanism known as suspension of the rules, meaning he will need the support of two-thirds of members for passage. Given House Republicans’ increasingly narrow majority and hard-right members’ opposition to Ukraine funding, Johnson cannot clear that high hurdle with only votes from his conference.
While Johnson weighs his options, the specter of the motion to vacate looms in the background. If Greene follows through on her threat to force a vote on Johnson’s removal, the House must take up the matter within two legislative days. Johnson will then need the support of a majority of members to keep his job, and because of a recent string of Republican resignations, he can only afford to lose two votes within his conference.
As of now, few Republicans appear eager to revisit the spectacle of last fall, when the conference’s repeated failures to elect a new speaker ground the House to a complete halt for weeks. Some centrist Democrats have already indicated they will not allow Greene to let the chamber descend into chaos, especially if she forces the motion to vacate vote over the issue of Ukraine funding.
“I do not support Speaker Johnson but I will never stand by and let [Greene] … take over the people’s House,” congressman Jared Moskowitz, a Democrat of Florida, posted to Twitter/X last month.
The House Democratic leader, Hakeem Jeffries, previously told the New York Times that he expected “a reasonable number” of his caucus members would come to Johnson’s assistance if his speakership was imperiled because of a vote on Ukraine aid. But one of the leading House progressives, congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, has argued that Democrats’ support for Johnson should come with some legislative strings attached.
“My vote would most likely be for a Speaker Jeffries, which becomes an increasingly likely reality day after day as Republicans pursue further midterm resignations,” Ocasio-Cortez recently told CNN. “But I think, for those of us and for any Democrat inclined, I don’t think we do that for free.”
House Republicans appear all too aware of the threat of a Democratic speaker given their increasingly thin majority, and that possibility has made even some hard-right members wary of ousting Johnson. Congressman Matt Gaetz, a Republican of Florida who led the charge against former Republican speaker Kevin McCarthy last year, voiced hesitation about Greene’s motion.
“When I vacated the last [speaker], I made a promise to the country that we would not end up with a Democrat speaker,” Gaetz told reporters last month. “I couldn’t make that promise again today.”
With the House returning to session on Monday, Johnson will need to soon decide if he is willing to gamble his speakership on Ukraine funding. If he is not, the political costs could be severe – and the costs to Kyiv could be much higher.
