In a groundbreaking diplomatic effort, Secretary of State Antony Blinken is embarking on a weeklong journey to the Middle East, with a key objective being to establish an indirect back channel to Iran. This strategic move aims to deter wider conflicts in the region, particularly in light of Israel's defense minister unveiling plans for the next phase of the war in Gaza.
However, friction has emerged within the Israeli cabinet as the defense minister's vision for Gaza does not align with the goals set by the United States. While Secretary Blinken left the region with the expectation that Israel would work towards an end-of-war scenario and plan for the post-Hamas Gaza, the defense minister presented a three-page document outlining a different agenda.
According to this document, the next phase (referred to as phase three) entails targeting tunnels, deploying special operation forces in northern and southern Gaza, eliminating the Hamas leadership, and rescuing hostages. However, it is the day after, or phase four, that Secretary Blinken seeks clarity on. The Israeli defense minister's proposal falls short in providing a detailed plan for this crucial phase.
Outlined roughly, the post-Hamas Gaza environment would negate any threat from the Hamas militant group, eliminate Israeli civilians within Gaza (which has always been the case), and allow the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) to continue military operations as necessary. However, the document lacks a clear pathway to establish Palestinian political authority and does not include any explicit mention of a ceasefire.
Secretary Blinken, in his meetings with Israeli officials, will undoubtedly press for more specifics, urging the Israeli government to provide a detailed plan for the post-war scenario. Central to his concerns is the absence of a definitive approach to achieving political stability and the timeframe for accomplishing this goal. Additionally, Secretary Blinken is likely to inquire about the prospects for a ceasefire, as it remains conspicuously absent from the defense minister's proposal.
While some elements of Israel's objective, such as providing security and ensuring humanitarian aid for Gazan civilians, have already been acknowledged, the lack of detail regarding the day after phase raises questions about the overall plan. Secretary Blinken intends to collaborate with European and regional partners to spearhead the humanitarian reconstruction efforts in Gaza, with Israel exerting control over security parameters.
In the coming days, Secretary Blinken will undoubtedly engage in intensive discussions, seeking to bridge the gaps between different visions for a post-conflict Gaza. His diplomatic efforts aspire to establish a comprehensive framework that addresses political stability, ceasefire mechanisms, and the long-term security of the region. As the world watches these negotiations unfold, the hope remains that a peaceful resolution can ultimately be achieved.
