Microsoft wowed users earlier this year when it gave the first peek at the pairing of its products with generative A.I. technology. Now it’s investors’ turn to be dazzled as the first estimates of the technology’s money-making potential emerge.
According to a report from Macquarie Equity Research on Tuesday, Microsoft’s newly-announced A.I. tool for office workers could add roughly $14 billion to the company’s topline in its first full year.
That estimate, which assumes 10% of Microsoft’s existing corporate users sign on for the product, would instantly recoup the company’s hefty investment in ChatGPT-maker OpenAI, which developed the technology used in Microsoft’s new offering.
“In our view, the Office CoPilot is the logical choice for Microsoft’s first attempt to monetize their $10 billion investment in OpenAI; Office 365 is Microsoft's bread-and-butter product and is mission-critical software for the business world,” said Macquarie analyst Sarah Hindlian-Bowler in the note to investors.
Shares of Microsoft have gained nearly 3% since Tuesday’s announcement of the A.I.-powered CoPilot 365. The feature, which Microsoft is offering for $30 a month to users of its office productivity software suite, integrates ChatGPT-like functionality into the products. That means users can automate many office chores and work on spreadsheets, PowerPoint presentations and other familiar apps as easily as talking to a chatbot.
Testers have described the service as positive and productivity-enhancing. PC World calls it the “killer app” that AI needed.
The beta-testing for CoPilot 365 has been available for business since March, and 600 of Microsoft’s largest customers, including Bank of America, Ford and Walmart, paid for the pre-rollout version, according to the report.
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While Microsoft has yet to announce when CoPilot will be available to all of its customers, Macquarie’s Hindlian-Bowler said the potential was huge.
Macquarie estimates that Microsoft has roughly 382 million commercial users of its Office 365 product. If only 2.5% of those users decide to pay the $30 upgrade for CoPilot 365—the worst-case scenario outlined in the report—Microsoft stands to generate $3.4 billion in additional annual revenue, according to the firm.
If one out of ten commercial users go for the upgrade, Microsoft could see an additional $13.75 billion in annual revenue. And if 20% of Office 365 users pay the $30 upgrade—the best case that Macquaire outlined—Microsoft could generate $27.5 billion in annual revenue.
Microsoft invested $10 billion in OpenAI in January, in addition to $3 billion it has previously invested in the San Francisco A.I. startup over the years. While the amount of profit Microsoft can cash in from its stake in OpenAI is capped as a result of the deal structure, the money that Microsoft generates from using OpenAI technology in its own products is not believed to be bound by any such strictures.
Macquarie, which has an “outperform” rating on Microsoft’s stock, did not change its estimates in Tuesday’s note to investors.
