DETROIT — Ballot proposals that would alter Michigan's legislative term limits and enshrine new rights to abortion and access to voting in the Michigan Constitution are enjoying strong support among likely voters less than five weeks before Election Day, according to a new statewide poll.
Proposal 3, the high-profile ballot question that would establish a constitutional right to abortion, garnered 61% support among 600 likely general election voters surveyed Sept. 26-29 by the Glengariff Group for The Detroit News and WDIV-TV.
Support for the measure cut across gender, religious and partisan lines, with most male and female voters who identify as "lean Republicans" planning to vote yes. One-in-three voters who identify as "strong Republicans" also are in favor of the constitutional amendment, according to the poll.
“As long as those Republicans support Proposition 3, it will be very difficult to defeat this proposal,” said pollster Richard Czuba, founder of the Lansing-based Glengariff Group.
Proposal 2, which would allow in-person voting for nine days and add other voting rights to the state constitution, had the most support among likely voters with 70% saying they plan to vote yes.
Proposal 1, a measure that seeks the change Michigan's 30-year-old term limits law and add financial transparency rules for state elected officials, garnered 66% support among likely voters surveyed.
Support for Proposal 3 is consistent with the polling on abortion since the Supreme Court's June ruling that overturned the landmark Roe V. Wade decision on abortion rights, Czuba said.
Czuba said he expects the current poll numbers to remain consistent through the rest of the campaign, particularly as abortion remains a strong focus of other campaigns this election cycle, guaranteeing that "voters continue to think about it until Election Day.”
“We’re going to have millions of dollars every single day reminding voters of this issue,” he said. “Not only are Michigan voters deciding this constitutional amendment, but it's bleeding into other races as the central issue.
"There's not a lot of oxygen left in the room to discuss other issues because this one is so dominating the conversation.”
Glengariff Group's polling sample included 39% of voters who identify as Democrats, 39% who say they vote Republican and 19% who describe themselves as political independents. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus four percentage points.
Proposal 1 attracts 'strange bedfellows'
The poll showed 66% of voters surveyed support Proposal 1, which would amend the state constitution to change state term limits for the state Legislature and boost public financial disclosure requirements for state legislators and other state officers.
During the latest poll, voters were read the first sentence of the proposal before being asked whether they planned to vote yes or no on the measure. According to the poll, 15.4% of voters surveyed said they would vote "no" on the measure, while 17.8% remained undecided.
Czuba said polling on Proposal 1 looks strong and consistent across the board, noting the wording of the measure is "particularly strong wording to voters."
Voters from every party affiliation — Democrats, Republicans and independents — supported this proposal with a minimum of 65%.
Republican strategist Jason Cabel Roe, who is running the campaign in favor of the term limit measure, said the polling results reiterate the “broad coalition of support” that has coalesced around the proposal, which has seen groups like the AFL-CIO and the Michigan Chamber of Commerce come together in favor of the initiative.
“I think this confirms what we’ve been hearing around the state about Proposition 1,” said Roe of the polling data. “The whole campaign was designed around a broad coalition of what we call strange bedfellows, folks that have not historically been on the same side coming together with the broad recognition that the changes are necessary.”
While the measure retains strong support, there was a drop in support compared to the July survey, which reported 81% of voters polled said they would vote yes on the measure, while 8% said they would vote "no" and 10% said they were undecided. For that poll, voters were read the full proposal before being asked how they planned to vote.
“There was a slight modification in the language that the Legislature had recommended we thought that might lower the approval that we saw in previous polling," said Roe, who noted that organized opposition to the measure has also cropped up since the previous polling.
For Keith Allard, who is working on the campaign against the measure, the text of the ballot measure does not reflect the message being pushed in advertisements for the proposal, which he said have focused more heavily on the financial reporting aspects of the measure as opposed to the term limit increases.
"Proposition 1 was written by politicians and lobbyists to sound really good on the ballot," said Allard, who said he believes support for the measure will weaken when voters get their ballots and realize the measure also extends the current term limits.
Proposal 2 garners most support
Of the three proposals set to appear on the Nov. 8 ballot, a proposal that would enshrine a number of voting rights and election provisions into the state constitution garnered the most support among voters surveyed.
The “Promote the Vote” ballot initiative would also add new provisions around early voting, while also more clearly defining the roles of key aspects of election administration like the roles of state and county canvassers.
More than 70% of voters surveyed said they favor the initiative, while 14% are opposed and about 16% remain undecided, according to the poll.
“Polling has consistently shown that voters across the political spectrum support protecting the fundamental right to vote and ensuring that the votes of our military members living overseas are counted,” said Khalilah Spencer, board president of Promote the Vote 2022, the group that gathered signatures to put the initiative on the ballot.
“With support from dozens of non-partisan groups across Michigan, we are running an aggressive campaign to make our elections more secure and more accessible for all Michigan voters regardless of what they look like, where they live, or what party they choose.”
Proposal 3 has strongest base support
The final proposal that will appear on the general election ballot will also be one of the most closely watched.
For the most recent poll, voters were read the exact ballot wording of the Reproductive Freedom Amendment, which would establish a constitutional right to services for women ranging from contraception to abortion to prenatal care.
About 62% of voters said they favor the abortion rights initiative, while 24% were opposed and 14% remain undecided on the issue.
Of the three amendments, Czuba said Proposal 3 has a strong base of voters who say they are "definite yes" votes at 45.3%, with another 16.3% responding they will probably vote yes on the measure.
Unlike the other proposals Michigan voters will decide, the abortion amendment shows a partisan difference, according to analysis from the Glengariff Group, which said the results indicated that base Republican voters who generally oppose abortion plan to vote no on Proposal 3.
Voters who identify as "strong Republicans" oppose the abortion rights proposal by a margin of 36% to 51%.
But voters who say they "lean Republican" are supportive, with 49% of this voting bloc saying they will vote for the measure, while 35% are opposed. About 16% of voters who lean Republican remain undecided, according to the poll.
"Democrats, Independents and Republicans joined to put Proposal 3 on the ballot to restore our rights under Roe v. Wade, and prevent politicians from interfering with personal medical decisions," said Darci McConnell, spokeswoman for Reproductive Freedom for All, the group backing the ballot initiative.
"We will keep working until the polls close to get every yes vote we can so we can stop abortion from becoming illegal in Michigan."
According to Czuba, with about a third of Republican voters saying they will vote in favor of the measure, opponents face a tough battle in trying to defeat the abortion rights proposal, which Democrats are using to drive up turnout in the midterm election.
Women support Proposal 3 by a margin of 65% to 22%, while men support the measure by a margin of 58% to 25%.
Support among women transcended party lines, with 54% of women who lean Republican saying they would vote for the proposal.
Women who describe themselves as "strong Republican" voters, however, bucked the trend with 36% saying they would vote in favor of Proposal 3, compared to 52% who said they planned to vote against it.
Beyond gender and party affiliation, the poll found that a majority of “self-described” religious voters affiliated with the four main religious denominations in the state — Baptist, Catholic, Lutheran and Non-Denominational — also plan to support the measure.
“The only poll that matters is the one that takes place on Election Day at polling locations across the state,” said Christen Pollo, a spokeswoman with Citizens to Support MI Women and Children, a coalition campaigning against the proposal. "We’ve all seen how far off these early polls can be. The more Michigan voters learn about this extreme proposed constitutional amendment, the more they are opposed to it."
Pollo said the coalition of groups opposing the measure working to “actively” engage voters on the details of the measure.
Past polling and results from previous ballot measures around other social issues, such as marijuana legalization in 2018 and legalization and a 2008 measure to eliminate restrictions on stem cell research, however, indicate that voter trends on social issues tend to remain consistent, according to Czuba.
“Where you start polling on a social ballot proposal is generally where you end ... it’s going to be very hard to peel back voters from that proposal because once you make a decision on a social issue, it’s hard to change your opinion,” he said.
If the main question for voters regarding this proposal going into the midterms is how a voter feels about overturning Roe v. Wade, then the proposal will continue to have a lot of momentum in its favor, Czuba noted.
“The only way to defeat this amendment will be for the opposition to move the conversation away from the central conversation of Roe v. Wade,” said Czuba, explaining opponents of the measure would need to focus their messaging on tangential issues, which thus far have not resonated strongly enough to reject the proposal.
______
