MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom goes in-depth to break down the biggest fights in the UFC. Today, he takes a closer look at the UFC 314 co-main event between Michael Chandler and Paddy Pimblett.
Michael Chandler UFC 314 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 23-9 MMA, 2-4 UFC
- Height: 5’8″ Age: 38 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 71.5″
- Last fight: Decision loss to Charles Oliveira (Nov. 16, 2024)
- Camp: Sanford MMA (Florida)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ 3x Bellator lightweight champion
+ 4x NCAA Division-I All-American wrestler
+ 11 KO victories
+ 7 submission wins
+ 12 first-round finishes
+ KO power
^ Dangerous with both hands
+ Aggressive pace and pressure
+ Improved footwork and fundamentals
^ Will shift stances and work the body
+ Excellent wrestling ability
^ Explosive level-changing takedowns
+ Good transitional grappler
^ Effective ground strikes and submissions
Paddy Pimblett UFC 314 preview
Staple info:
- Record: 22-3 MMA, 6-0 UFC
- Height: 5’10” Age: 30 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 73″
- Last fight: Submission win over King Green (July 27, 2024)
- Camp: Next Generation MMA Liverpool (England)
- Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing
- Risk management: Fair
Supplemental info:
+ Regional MMA titles
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt (2nd degree)
+ Amateur MMA accolades
+ 6 KO victories
+ 10 submission wins
+ 12 first-round finishes
+ Steadily improving striking fundamentals
+ Hard kicks at all levels
+ Crafty clinch game
^ Good trips, takedowns and strikes
+ Works well from front-headlock variations
^ Dynamic submission game
+ Dangerous transitional grapplers
^ Always looks for the back
Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett point of interest: The Bull vs. The Baddy
An inherent pressure fighter who busted onto the UFC stage like a proverbial bull in a China shop, Chandler can seldom be found taking a back step in his contests. Carrying over the athletic ability and explosiveness that he demonstrated as a wrestler on the Mizzou mats, Chandler’s boxing technique made impressive strides back in his initial Bellator tournament run, which in turn helped him earn his first world title.
Since then, Chandler has seemed to settle down at Sanford MMA, where striking coach Henri Hooft has been able to help with the offensive fundamentals.
Chandler has attempted to further his fundamentals and footwork, moving much more fluidly in combinations and even adding in leg kicks of his own. The 38-year-old has also made a more concerted effort to go to the body in recent years, which should serve him well against his current counterpart.
Nevertheless, Chandler will need to respect what’s coming back at him this Saturday.
Say what you will about “The Baddy,” but Pimblett has been showing steady improvements since stepping onto the UFC stage. From jabbing more and leaping in less to attempting to keep his chin tucked, Pimblett is making an honest effort to even out his game.
The English fighter has long had some deceptively hard kicks that could come in handy for this contest, but Pimblett’s power seems to be more prevalent everywhere after making some clear strides in his strength and conditioning has him looking like a ripped Owen Heart.
When in close, Pimblett is good about sneaking knees to the body, allowing him to flow into other offensive opporunitities in closed quarters.
Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett breakdown: Potential grappling threats
Considering that both men are proven finishers on the floor, I will be curious to see if either fighter is confident enough to gamble in the grappling department.
A four-time NCAA All-American standout who comes from a solid program and wrestling class, Chandler demonstrates the ability to dictate wrestling traffic in most of his fights.
Whether Chandler is changing levels for a double or chaining off of a single-leg, the former Mizzou team captain can be difficult to deny when he puts his mind to taking someone down. Chandler’s reactive speed and almost karate-like footwork allow his level changes decent cover in the open, but the 15-year pro seems to get into most of his grappling exchanges against the cage.
However, despite Chandler being the better wrestler on paper, I’d be careful about counting out Pimblett.
Although Pimblett is more than capable of hitting your more traditional takedown shots in the open and against the cage, the English fighter appears particularly comfortable when working from the clinch.
Almost inviting opponents to press him into the cage at times, Pimblett is ok with working from more negative positions if it means he gets to create contact. No stranger to judo-style attacks, Pimblett is good about briefly disrupting opponents’ bases in order to open up opportunities to get the jump on them.
Whether Pimblett is alternating between knees to foot sweeps down low or snatching up front-headlocks up high, “The Baddy” has proven that he is a creative fighter that you can’t afford to get lackadaisical with. And if there’s even the slightest daylight in regards to a pathway to someone’s back, you can bet Pimblett is gonna find it and make hay from the position.
Luckily for Chandler, he’s got some underrated grappling skills and experience in his back pocket.
Linking up with high-level camps and catch wrestling coaches like Neil Melanson early on in his career, we have seen the former Mizzou Tiger show solid glimpses of a fine-tuned transitional grappler during parts of his evolution. From submission defense to the small details of fighting inside of someone’s guard, Chandler shows all the fundamentals from hand-fighting to head position, which, of course, opens up the opportunity for him to land his ferocious ground and pound.
Chandler is also not afraid to take backs that become available but runs the risk of falling into the honeytrap of a high-paced fight should he allow things to get too wild.
Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett odds
Despite the oddsmakers opening the American as the favorite, public money has come pouring in on the Englishman, listing Pimblett -160 and Chandler +124 via FanDuel.
Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett prediction, pick
Considering the propensity MMA gamblers have to grow tumescent over any opportunity to fade aging veterans opposite hyped-up younger products, the line flip above does not surprise me in the slightest.
Between losing 3 of his last 4 fights to his pathological compulsion to cheat, Chandler is not exactly the most popular fighter for a multitude of reasons. That said, I’m a firm believer in doing your best to put aside any personal biases you have if you mean to accurately analyze a fight (which I know is challenging on a card that’s featuring Bryce Mitchell and all).
Although my biases run opposite with a guy like Chandler given my bias of sharing the same coaches and training rooms with him in the past, I believe that I’ve fairly analyzed his game and have had no issue when having to make official picks against him. However, I have a hard time doing that here.
Feelings for either fighter aside, I’m struggling to be a believer of “The Baddy,” as well as justifying this betting line swing in his favor.
I know he’s the younger and more popular fighter, but that’s not how fights are decided, folks. More often than not, it is skills and styles that carry the most weight as far as what influences the results of fights.
Yes, this sport is not a young man’s game and judges can also unfortunately weigh heavily into the equation of outcomes (something that Pimblett has benefited from on multiple occasions throughout his career as far as favorable scorecards go), but I’m not sure I can make sense of the undeserved confidence Pimblett and his supporters seem to carry.
Aside from having a tailored and taken care of career path full of favorable beats and bounces, Pimblett’s best wins come with serious caveats attached.
Whether we’re talking about him being on the right side of some of the worst scorecards submitted in or out of the octagon (e.g. his Cage Warriors title fight with Julian Erosa or his UFC fight with Jared Gordon) or the fact that he fell apart against the ghost of Tony Ferguson in Round 3 of their fight, I can’t say that Pimblett has sold me coming off of his latest banana-peel victory over a clearly washed Bobby Green.
Don’t get me wrong: I don’t mean any disrespect as I love fighters like Ferguson and Green. I also don’t want to come off as being absolutely dismissive of Pimblett’s skills and improvements – which I did my best to highlight in previous sections.
However, when it comes to striking defense, Pimblett still has a habit of raising his head a bit as the fight wears on and as the exchanges go longer. Couple that with Pimblett’s penchant for eating left hands, and I can’t help but side with Chandler to blow through his defenses.
Even when compromised and coming off a two-year layoff in his last fight, Chandler was still able to land multiple left hands – coming forward and off the counter – late into a five-round affair with Charles Oliveira. In fact, since knocking out Benson Henderson in their rematch, Chandler’s left hand has quietly overtaken his right as his moneymaker goes.
The pick is Chandler via a vicious knockout in the early rounds.
Prediction: Chandler inside the distance
Michael Chandler vs. Paddy Pimblett start time, where to watch
As the co-main event, Chandler and Pimblett are expected to make their walks to the octagon at approximately 11:45 p.m. ET. The fight streams on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 314.
