Michael Beckley: China Is Dangerously Weak

What if the new Cold War with China turns hot? Just asking questions.

China's rise, decline, or potential for conflict is often clouded by propaganda and oversimplification. This episode of Just Asking Questions examines China's real economic, military, and geopolitical trajectory, focusing on Taiwan tensions, trade wars, and demographic challenges.

Joining us is Michael Beckley, a Tufts University political science professor and co-author of Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China. He is also a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. His research argues that China's peaking power makes it a unique threat, blending insights on its economy, military, and ambitions.

Sources Referenced:

• Danger Zone: The Coming Conflict with China, by Michael Beckley and Hal Brands
• "China's Hypersonic Weapons Test 'Concerning': Gen. Milley," by David Rubenstein for Bloomberg
• World Bank: China's fertility rate
• Full text of Xi Jinping's report at the 19th CPC National Congress
• China's gross domestic product compared to the United States'
• "Chenggong, one of the largest new ghost town in Asia," by Matteo Damiani
• "Joe Biden says China will 'eat our lunch' on infrastructure," by SCMP Clips

Chapters

• 00:00 Coming up: China's economic challenges and rising aggression
• 01:13 What if China invaded Taiwan tomorrow?
• 05:17 Military capabilities and invasion scenarios for Taiwan
• 10:28 America's interests and the strategic importance of Taiwan
• 15:13 The Trump administration's trade war with China
• 20:47 Economic rivalry and the new Cold War
• 26:03 China's military modernization and hypersonic threats
• 31:10 Assessing China's actual military strength
• 36:14 Lessons from Hong Kong and implications for Taiwan
• 41:23 Demographic decline and economic stagnation
• 46:30 China's one-child policy and irreversible population trends
• 51:39 Xi Jinping's vision and the roots of Chinese authoritarianism
• 57:05 The nature of China's political and economic system
• 01:02:15 Rising assertiveness and wolf warrior diplomacy
• 01:07:28 Avoiding war and imagining a path to peace
• 01:13:09 Strategic missteps and the importance of deterrence
• 01:16:18 Appreciating global order and what's at stake

• Producer: John Osterhoudt

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