It's been a rough start in forming a coalition government, particularly with the row over the House speaker position between the Move Forward Party (MFP) and Pheu Thai. Now we've seen that it's a fragile partnership between the two, and if they do form a government together, more difficult times lay ahead.
Presently, it's unclear if the MFP under Pita Limjaroenrat can even maintain its status as coalition leader, as opponents use every tactic to bring down the 42-year-old politician.
Even if the two parties bury the hatchet, leading the remaining parties into the Thai Khu Fah building, the next administration's work will hardly be smooth.
While representing the pro-democracy side, MFP and Pheu Thai have different platform policies that cannot be bridged, especially their stances on Section 112, or lèse-majesté law. As a gesture of compromise, MFP will need to remove some of its policies from the MoU it made with coalition partners.
But the MFP-Pheu Thai tussle is no surprise. The two parties will be rivals in the next election as they were in the last. If the MFP is the coalition leader with Mr Pita taking the premiership, Pheu Thai will have to play second fiddle, a position it never wants.
Pheu Thai knows it has more options. It may maintain a partnership with the MFP, but if not, it may join hands with those in the caretaker government who are easier to work with.
There was wild speculation before the poll that the party could form a government with the Palang Pracharath Party under Gen Prawit Wongsuwon and Bhumjaithai. Such a prospect, however, resulted in the party losing some of its popularity, given widespread anti-junta sentiment, while Thaksin Shinawatra's "homecoming" promises lost attraction.
When the MFP eventually emerged as the top poll winner, Pheu Thai was forced to forge a partnership, albeit reluctantly, with its rival. While bargaining for the House speaker position, using on-again, off-again tactics, Pheu Thai's real goal is the premiership. It's believed that if the party gains the upper hand over MFP, it could withdraw from the partnership and form a government with the "old powers" instead. This depends, however, on the MFP -- if it loses patience and takes the role of opposition, and in that case, Pheu Thai will have the excuse to flirt with those in the conservative camp.
Pheu Thai party leader Cholnan Srikaew had expressed frustration over dealing with the MFP. "We want to depart (from negotiations with the MFP) and have the right to. What is going on is like a forced marriage. It's the 25 million votes that oblige us to stay together," he said.
In the latest development, Pheu Thai has finally agreed to offer the House Speaker slot to MFP, reportedly on the condition that the latter must step aside immediately if its attempt for Mr Pita's premiership fails and instead render support to its PM candidacy.
Moreover, MFP has to give up A-list ministries -- Ministry of Digital Economy and Society, Energy, Transport, and Justice -- to Pheu Thai. So, unless last-minute changes come up, Padipat Suntiphada, MFP's MP For Phitsanulok, will be House speaker while Srettha Thavisin will become PM.
For optimists, such a scenario looks perfect as the two parties could make a settlement and, from there, proceed with forming a coalition. But in reality, it's still a long way off.
It's too early to dismiss Gen Prawit from the political arena at this stage, particularly if we take a look at Pheu Thai's "bring Thaksin home" plan, as well as attempts by the old powers to pursue an "empire strikes back" scenario against the MFP.
Sources have said the Thaksin factor was behind Pheu Thai's inconsistent bargaining from the start. Some observers still believe that Pheu Thai wants to pass on the premiership to Gen Prawit, who should be able to make "bring Thaksin home" a reality given his political connections. Such clout cannot be found in Mr Srettha, who may not survive politically if he has a hand in Thaksin's homecoming mission.
Then there are the conservative elements against Mr Pita and the MFP who still think Gen Prawit is an appropriate country leader.
Core leaders of the Palang Pracharath Party (PPRP) believe it's still possible if all the small parties, which have 188 MPs, unite and form a minority government. Such aspirations require support from the junta-appointed senate under Gen Prawit's control. Some 200 votes from the Senate are enough to pave the way for Gen Prawit to power when they attend the joint sitting with the Lower House on July 13. They do not think that they have to care about public opinion.
If that is the case, Pheu Thai will have to decide -- in or out?
Yet the "in" option seems too expensive politically. If it enters the minority coalition, the party will risk a loss of public support. Thaksin will not allow that to happen.
Needless to say, political analysts are holding their breath for the next chapter of Thai politics. But whatever it is, the reluctant allies have no choice but to stick together and push for democracy as mandated by the people.
Chairith Yonpiam is assistant news editor, Bangkok Post.
