Mexico is suffering its worst drought in 70 years. Its largest city is under severe water rationing, while farmers have seen their lands and crops ravaged. Production of corn, a food staple, has dropped by as much as 50% in some parts of the country.
North of the border, American farmers produced a record corn crop in 2023, and that surplus is ready to make its way to Mexico. U.S. corn exports to Mexico were forecast to rise to 22 million tons for the 2024-2025 marketing year. But protectionist measures by Mexico's government could interrupt that flow, threatening livestock production, food supply chains, and food security. The Mexican government must reverse course.
Proposed restrictions on imported genetically modified corn -- both white corn for dough and tortillas and yellow corn for animal feed -- could spike the price of corn and tortilla in Mexico by 19% and 16%, respectively. More than 10% of the Mexican population already lacks sufficient access to food, spending more than half their household income on corn-derived products. Under such an import ban, food insecurity levels could double or even triple in the nine poorest Mexican states. Mexico's GDP could fall by nearly $12 billion over 10 years.
This looming threat stems from decrees by Mexican President Andres Manuel López Obrador. A 2020 decree banned imports of all biotech varieties of corn. Last year, a new decree clarified that genetically modified yellow corn can cross the border for now -- but stated the government's intention to gradually substitute these imports with domestic supplies. The decrees are scheduled to take effect this year. President López Obrador has justified the ban by claiming it protects public health and native corn varieties.
His government, however, has provided no scientific evidence that GM corn is unsafe, despite requests from both the American and Canadian governments. Without a scientific justification, the Mexican ban is likely in violation of the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), which requires regulation of GM crops to be "science-based."
In this case, the reason the Mexican government has provided no evidence is that GM corn is in fact safe -- and the Mexican government knows it. For over two decades, Mexico allowed the import of GM corn with no claims of adverse effects on people or livestock.
The Mexican government hasn't tightened its food safety laws or made new discoveries of previously unknown dangers. In all three USMCA countries, GM crops are generally more tightly regulated than crops created with other modification methods and must pass more stringent safety tests. Mexican regulations are hardly lax; submissions to its authorities typically total over 300 pages and often include addenda of 20-40 full-length reports detailing the exact procedures performed to test food safety.
Absent any new scientific risk assessment from the Mexican government, it is hard not to conclude that the import ban on GM corn is really intended to block American farmers' access to Mexican markets -- and to new agricultural production technologies. Because GM corn comprises over 90% of the U.S. crop, a ban on GM imports comes close to a ban on all corn imports from the United States -- a clear violation of the USMCA. President López Obrador himself admitted as much by stating in his decree that the ban was instituted with the aim of achieving "self-sufficiency and food sovereignty" for Mexico.
In addition to violating a trade agreement critical to the Mexican economy, the GM ban is agricultural folly and a humanitarian mistake. GM corn is necessary if Mexico is to avert a short-term crisis and will become even more crucial in the years ahead.
Rising temperatures caused by climate change are making droughts like the one Mexico is now suffering more frequent and severe. In response, biotech companies are field-testing plants that can help us weather the impacts of climate change with hardier, more resilient crops that use less water.
For example, a drought-resistant GM corn -- Bayer's DroughtGard Hybrids technology -- uses a naturally occurring bacteria to enable the plant to better retain water. Other researchers are studying a relative of alfalfa that bounces back more quickly from drought. Perversely, unscientific trade actions like Mexico's GM corn ban will have a chilling effect on the very climate change solutions that would address Mexico's drought.
Mexico's response to its current crisis will not only shape its own future, but will also have far-reaching implications for the principles of free trade and scientific integrity enshrined in the USMCA. The UShas rightfully called for a dispute panel, with Canada joining as a third party, to address Mexico's violation of its trade commitments.
A speedy resolution will ensure American corn makes its way to Mexican families who need it -- and perhaps deter future misguided efforts to prioritize protectionism over science.
Nancy Travis is vice president of international affairs for the Biotechnology Innovation Organization.
