A recent report by the Center for Latin American Monetary Studies (CEMLA) indicates that the employment of Mexican immigrant workers in the United States declined during the first two months of 2025 compared to the same period in 2024.
The study notes a decrease of 16,046 jobs, representing a 0.2% reduction, from 7,474,325 positions in early 2024 to 7,458,279 in early 2025.
The report, based on data from the U.S. Census Bureau's Current Population Survey (CPS), highlights uncertainty about the causes of this decline. "The available information does not allow us to determine whether the drop in employment is due to reduced demand for such workers or because some immigrants were absent from their jobs due to fear of deportation," said the authors in their conclusions.
"Rumors of raids are having more impact at this point than raids themselves," said Brian Turmail, vice president of public affairs and workforce for the Associated General Contractors of America (AGC) back on March 7 in a sprawling piece by Axios which focused on Business groups urging the Trump administration to reconsider its planned crackdown on workplace immigration violations.
CEMLA noted that the weakening in employment was concentrated among Mexican immigrants without U.S. citizenship. This group includes both documented residents without citizenship and undocumented workers. In contrast, employment among Mexican immigrants with citizenship has increased.
In a more granular look, the employment decline affected male workers more significantly. The number of employed Mexican immigrant men fell by 65,967 positions, a 1.4% decrease, while female employment increased by 49,921 positions, or 1.9%, bringing women's share of the Mexican immigrant workforce to 36.2% in early 2025.
The reduction in jobs at the beginning of 2025 adds to employment declines observed in the two preceding two-month periods, suggesting a continuing trend. CEMLA's analysis describes this pattern as a "deceleration in employment" among Mexican immigrants, primarily among men and particularly those without citizenship.
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