ATLANTA — The Mets, the wire-to-almost-wire leaders of the NL East, are on the precipice of having to settle for a wild-card spot.
They got swept by Atlanta, punctuated with a 5-3 loss Sunday night, a stunning series of events in the game and the series that totally turned the division picture. A weekend that began with the Mets looking to clinch a division title on their rival’s home field instead ended with practically the opposite, Atlanta with a magic number of one.
The next loss by the Mets, who host the Nationals this week, or the next win by Atlanta, which visits Miami, will eliminate the Mets from NL East contention. The Mets will get the division championship only if they win their final three games and Atlanta loses its final three.
No matter what, to be clear, the Mets still are going to the playoffs for the first time since 2016. If it indeed is as a wild card, they will host a best-of-three series against a team to be decided. Those games would be on Friday, Saturday and if necessary Sunday.
The Mets now have been out of first place four days this year: the past two, plus two the entire season before that.
More division math: Atlanta (100-59) is two games ahead of the Mets (98-61). But by virtue of taking the season series — 10-9, rallying with six wins in the teams’ last seven meetups — they get the tiebreaker in the event the clubs finish with the same record.
That is part of why the Mets’ sudden failure was so unlikely. They needed to take only one of three games in Atlanta to order to guarantee the tiebreaker in their favor. And they had their top three pitchers going — Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Chris Bassitt, in that order.
But after the aces flopped on Friday and Saturday, Bassitt was even worse in the finale. He gave up four runs in 2 2/3 innings. The Mets’ starters had a 6.91 ERA in these three games.
The Mets started hot Sunday night, putting nine of their first 15 batters on base against righthander Charlie Morton. But they scored only three runs (two on solo homers from Daniel Vogelbach and Jeff McNeil).
Eduardo Escobar struck out looking to strand two runners in the first. Francisco Lindor struck out swinging to strand two more in the second. They had runners on the corners with no outs (and two runs already in) in the third, but Mark Canha, Luis Guillorme and James McCann made outs to bail out Morton.
The key play in that sequence was invisible in the box score. Canha sent a slow grounder toward third, a difficult play for third baseman Austin Riley. He opted at the last moment not to touch it in the hopes that it ticked foul. It did, missing the third-base bag by inches.
The Mets’ fortunes had turned. Two pitches later, Canha popped out for the first out of the frame. They didn’t advance another runner past first base.
Swanson opened the scoring with a solo homer in the first inning. That completed his series trifecta, one long ball each against deGrom, Scherzer and Bassitt.
After the Mets jumped ahead in the top of the third, Bassitt lost control of his pitches — and the lead — in the bottom of the inning. Orlando Arcia (single) and Ronald Acuna Jr. (walk) reached base to open the frame, but Bassitt retired the next two. Then Riley got hit by a pitch to load the bases. And Matt Olson walked to force in a run.
Travis d’Arnaud, noted ex-Met, had the big blow. He fell behind 0-and-2, took a ball, fouled off a pitch, took another ball and fouled off two more pitches. The eight-pitch at-bat ended with a curveball grounded up the middle for a two-run single and Atlanta lead.
The Mets’ bullpen gave them a chance. Trevor May got four outs, Seth Lugo six (one run), Drew Smith one, Joely Rodriguez three and Edwin Diaz two.
