For many years, Mets executives were forced to shop in the bargain bins. General managers would have to wait out the market to see who was available at the end of winter. Even in years when there were elite free agents available as spring training started, the Mets waited out the market without making moves.
The payroll for a big market team was laughable at times, so it’s hard to reconcile that with what it’s likely to be next season: Over $400 million, including taxes and penalties.
The Mets’ pre-arbitration CBT payroll for 2023 is projected to be just under $348 million. The luxury tax bill, arbitration pay raises and that extra outfielder they need to obtain will push the total north of $400 million. The estimated $58 million luxury tax bill will probably be more than some teams will spend next season.
If it seems like mad spending, just know that it’s actually not. There is a method to the madness. There is no salary cap in this league and while the luxury tax often acts as one, without a salary floor there is no glory in being cheap. The Mets will scale back the spending once the prospect pipeline is flowing, all the while continuing to invest in the behind-the-scenes elements that help produce championships.
The bigger picture is this: The Mets are spending now to be competitive while investing in the future. Of the high-dollar contracts, only Brandon Nimmo, Edwin Diaz, Kodai Senga, Francisco Lindor and Starling Marte are signed past 2024. By then, the hope is that players like Francisco Alvarez, Brett Baty, Mark Vientos, David Peterson and Tylor Megill will be stars instead of just supporting cast members.
Fans were skeptical about the signing of 39-year-old Justin Verlander and skeptical about having two aces, Verlander and Max Scherzer, in their late 30s each making $43 million in 2023 and 2024. But they are two aces with three World Series titles and six Cy Young Awards between them, and the Mets believe having a formidable rotation is the key to going deep in October.
If they win a pennant or a World Series next fall or even the one after, then the money will be worth it. A winning culture will be established and the Mets will be in a better place than when Cohen purchased the team. They are staying away from long-term contracts that could leave the team hamstrung later.
Once Verlander, Scherzer and others are off the books, the club might look to get under the luxury tax threshold, which starts at $233 million on the low end and goes up to $293 million on the high end. General manager Billy Eppler cited the CBT as a reason for the deferred payments in Diaz’s contract. If the prospects are ready to go, then the Mets can fill vacant spots with cheap young talent and continue to win.
The hope is that they can annually churn out top talent, much like the Los Angeles Dodgers and Houston Astros. Not going over the luxury tax will also allow the Mets to draft higher at some point. Obviously, this is integral to the goal of churning out impact players.
It takes time and money to build a top farm system, but it also takes time and money to win at the big league level as well. The Mets have the money to do both simultaneously, prioritizing short-term gain and long-term investments.
The Mets are spending to win and spending to make money. And they aren’t the only team operating like this right now. Under the direction of owner Peter Seidler, the grandson of late Dodgers owner Walter O’Malley, the San Diego Padres are building a super team in a much smaller market than New York. Philadelphia Phillies owner John Middleton has signed off on some big contracts in recent years and his club was even more aggressive this winter, landing shortstop Trea Turner and former Mets’ right-hander Taijuan Walker.
Not every team has the luxury of an owner who is willing to spend on top players. Not every top player will win. But the Mets have a clear plan and vision and they are executing it. Cohen is making good on his promise to turn the Mets into a perennial winner.
