To determine if Gov. J.B. Pritzker’s proposed $275 million Metra train line from Chicago to Rockford makes economic sense, you need information on any competitors, their prices, likely costs of operating the new service and likely demand for the new service to compare likely revenues to likely costs.
With regard to the first and second points — competitors and prices — Van Galder bus line offers 21 scheduled trips per day from Rockford to O’Hare for $24.20. It has 12 scheduled trips per day from Rockford to the Loop for $25.30.
The new Metra service will offer two round trips per day to the Loop.
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With regard to the third point, the likely cost of operating the new service, begin by amortizing the cost of the project over its life and then add operating costs. Amortize the $275 million cost over 30 years at 4% (the current rate on insured 30-year municipal bonds), and the annual cost is $16 million.
Add operating costs based on Metra’s historical performance, and the total annual cost of the new service will probably be at least $25 million per year.
As Metra will have to match Van Galder’s price, demand will need to equal 1 million passengers per year ($25 million in operating costs divided by $25 per ticket).
With regard to the fourth point, estimated demand, look at a comparable service: Amtrak’s Hiawatha line from Chicago to Milwaukee, which had about 240,000 riders in 2021, and about 875,000 pre-pandemic.
Rockford has a population about one-tenth that of the Milwaukee metro area, so demand in Rockford is likely somewhere between 24,000 and 87,000 rides per year. As current demand is met by Van Galder, the proposed rail line will probably attract only a fraction of total demand.
Revenue is thus likely to be $200,000 to $400,000 per year to begin with, and, if demand returns to pre-pandemic levels, perhaps $1 million per year.
Thus the line will likely run at an operating loss of more than $24 million per year or about $3,000 per passenger to begin with and, if demand increases to pre-pandemic levels, a loss of about $1,000 per passenger.
In conclusion, the proposed service is unnecessary and duplicative, and will likely run at a tremendous loss, subsidized by the taxpayers.
Steve Willson, Lakewood
Sheriff’s office failed domestic violence victim
I write concerning the July 7 news article about the woman who was murdered after obtaining an order of protection that was never served on the respondent.
I was born, raised and educated in Illinois but moved to Wisconsin, where I served as a state circuit court judge for 31 years. I know a bit about orders of protection and the system designed to protect victims of domestic violence.
The sheriff’s failure to timely serve the order in this case is inexcusable. Domestic violence victims in your great city deserve better. I hope the judiciary takes the necessary steps to ensure that nothing like this ever happens again.
Michael J. Rosborough, reserve Wisconsin State Circuit Court judge emeritus
Madison, Wisconsin
