As temperatures reach a minimum of -5 °C in some parts of Wales tonight, many will wonder if a white Christmas is on the cards for the country this year. But while there is a chance of snow, the odds are relatively small for most areas according to the Met Office.
The weather service has revealed its long-range forecast for Tuesday, December 13, to Thursday, December 22, and Friday, December 23, until Friday, January 6. During the first timeframe, temperatures are likely to start off being lower than usual for the time of year, bringing a mixture of snow and rain across the south.
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From December 23, the weather forecast is currently "uncertain", with the potential for spells of rain and snow. The forecast reads: "General themes remain uncertain for the rest of the period. Conditions may be widely changeable, with some spells of rain, and at times snow.
"These were expected to be accompanied by strong winds, initially focused in southern parts, but affecting all areas at times. Colder and more settled conditions with occasional wintry showers could continue, particularly in the north. Temperatures gradually return closer to average towards the end of December and start of January."
Global meteorologist Jim Dale noted the parts of the UK most likely to see snow at Christmas as: Lancashire, Edinburgh, Glasgow, Yorkshire, Merseyside and the West Midlands. However, he said rain is the likely outcome in most areas. Speaking as part of the Wettest Regions Study for WhichBingo, he said “fits and starts [of snow] are more likely in January through February" and that "dry summers can and often will lead to wetter autumn and winters".
According to Oddschecker, there is a 20% chance of snow in London on Christmas day as London sneaks into the top four (4/1) UK cities. The odds for snow are more in London's favour than Belfast (5/1) and Cardiff (6/1).
So far in Wales there has already been a sprinkling of snow in higher parts. BBC Wales weather presenter Derek Brockway said it could fall widely in the coming days ahead of Christmas. He said: "It is going to stay really cold for December. Very cold for the time of year. We're looking at widespread sharp frosts down to -5°C and -6°C in a few spots overnight. A few wintry showers as well over the next few days. These falling as rain, hail, sleet and snow."
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