The men’s college basketball season officially opens Nov. 6, and with that begins the race for National Player of the Year honors. The combination of NIL opportunities keeping stars in school longer and a weak incoming freshman class means there are plenty of familiar faces in the mix for this award. Can Purdue’s Zach Edey defend his crown? Or will he be usurped by another emerging star?
Here’s a look at the preseason awards landscape.
The favorite
Zach Edey, Purdue
Edey is the heavy favorite as the defending winner of this award, though Oscar Tshiebwe came into 2022–23 with similar acclaim and fell short due to injuries and struggles by Kentucky. But even with potential voter fatigue, it’s hard to envision a world where a healthy Edey doesn’t wind up in the thick of the conversation for this award. He’s the sport’s most dominant player on a team with an extraordinarily high floor and plays in a system that accentuates his strengths. Plus, Purdue’s Matt Painter believes he’s still getting better in just his seventh year of organized basketball. This is a legacy year for Edey: A second NPOY and a national title would place him among the best college basketball players ever.
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Top contenders
Kyle Filipowski, Duke
In the past decade, just two Duke players have averaged more than 15 points per game and returned to school the following year: Grayson Allen and Filipowski. The 7-footer’s productivity and consistency were impressive a season ago, and Duke coach Jon Scheyer has said Filipowski looks more athletic after offseason surgery on both hips. He’s the best player on a consensus top-three team in the preseason that also happens to be arguably the sport’s biggest brand. One thing that could hold him back: Duke’s roster is very balanced. If players like sophomore Tyrese Proctor take the step forward many expect, there might not be enough points to go around for Filipowski to put up POY-level stats.
Hunter Dickinson, Kansas
It’s hard to imagine a better marriage between coach and player than Bill Self and Dickinson. Self got Kansas to a No. 1 seed last season, but this Jayhawks group lacked the interior pop present on the coach’s best teams. Enter Dickinson, who needed a change of scenery after two somewhat disappointing seasons as Michigan’s alpha. He’ll still be Kansas’s best player, but he’ll be put in more positions to succeed in an offense that is great at getting post players quality looks and playing with a point guard who is among the nation’s best passers. Another year averaging close to 20 points and 10 rebounds per game, this time on a title contender, and Dickinson will be in strong consideration for this award.
Armando Bacot, North Carolina
Bacot is one of the more accomplished players in the nation, with more than 1,800 points, 1,300 rebounds and a Final Four appearance to his name in four years with the Tar Heels. If he can engineer a bounce-back year for UNC in 2023–24, he’ll quickly reenter the national awards conversation. The double-double machine will be surrounded with more shooting, which should generate more space for him to operate. Plus, freshman point guard Elliot Cadeau is one of the best passers in the nation and should get Bacot some easy buckets.
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Sleepers
Tyler Kolek, Marquette
The current state of college basketball makes it likely that a big man will win this award, but among returning guards, Kolek is about as good a bet as any. An elite passer, Kolek is the linchpin of a Marquette offense that ranked as a top-10 unit nationally. He won Big East Player of the Year honors after leading the Golden Eagles to the league’s regular-season and tournament titles, and his 7.5 assists per game are the most of any returning player in the country.
Donovan Clingan, UConn
Yes, it would be a meteoric jump for Clingan to go from coming off the bench a year ago to winning National Player of the Year. But the big man has both the talent and potential role to make things interesting. Even if you just scale up Clingan’s production from last year’s 13 minutes per game to 30 per game, you’d get a player averaging nearly 16 points, 13 rebounds and more than four blocks per game. That’d be enough to at least put Clingan in the national awards conversation.
Isaiah Collier, USC
This is one of the weaker freshman classes to join college basketball in the last decade, so a freshman swooping in to win this award would be a bit of a surprise. If one does, Collier is a good bet. He’s the highest-rated 2023 recruit in the 247Sports database playing in college (No. 1 player Ron Holland joined G League Ignite), and he’ll be in a prominent role on a USC team that’s a clear Pac-12 contender. Collier’s a game-ready guard, with a sturdy frame and the ability to make plays for himself and others. His scoring stats may be tamped down some by sharing a backcourt with high-usage Boogie Ellis, but if USC ascends into the nation’s elite, Collier will be the biggest reason why.
Ryan Kalkbrenner, Creighton
If this award was based on overall impact on the game, Kalkbrenner would be a stronger contender. He likely won’t stack the counting stats to win it, but he’s arguably the most important player to his team because of his ability to dominate the rim at both ends. Against top-50 teams last year, Creighton was 26 points per 100 possessions better with Kalkbrenner on the floor than off, per Hoop-Explorer. It’s a staggering number that shows his impact and why he deserves a mention for this award.
Terrence Shannon Jr., Illinois
At his best, there may not be a better wing in the country than Shannon. Look at his brightest moments from last year (his 29-point outburst against UCLA in November comes to mind), and it’s not hard to see the potential for a truly special campaign if Shannon puts it together. More consistency as a shooter would make Shannon virtually impossible to stop given how effective he is at getting to the free throw line. The ball will be in Shannon’s hands plenty this year given the questions this team faces at the point guard spot.
Tyson Walker, Michigan State
Optimism is sky-high about the Spartans this season, and Walker’s return is a huge reason why. The fifth-year guard had a huge senior season, averaging more than 15 points per game in Big Ten play on blistering shooting splits. It may be hard for him to blossom into the 18–20 point-per-game scorer that he’ll likely need to be to make a real push for this honor, but if Michigan State lives up to the hype and Walker has another big year, he’ll at least be in the first-team All-American conversation.
