The calendar is about to flip to February, and when that happens the pressure to punch tickets to March Madness levels up a few notches. The last week produced some epic games with significant tournament implications, from Houston’s near-impossible rally past Kansas to Caleb Love’s half-court heave that helped Arizona to a signature win. How are those key results moving the projected men’s NCAA tournament field? Here’s a look at Sports Illustrated’s latest projected bracket:
On the Bubble
Last Four Byes:
Ohio State Buckeyes
Oklahoma Sooners
Georgia Bulldogs
San Diego State Aztecs
Last Four In:
Pittsburgh Panthers
Texas Longhorns
UCF Knights
BYU Cougars
First Four Out:
North Carolina Tar Heels
Xavier Musketeers
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Arizona State Sun Devils
Next Four Out:
VCU Rams
Indiana Hoosiers
North Texas Mean Green
SMU Mustangs
Three SEC teams currently sit among our final eight teams in, and a fourth (Vanderbilt) isn’t far above that threshold. The story line all bubble teams will be watching: How many conference wins will it take to sneak into the field for the SEC’s bubble? Will the committee take a team at 7–11 or even 6–12 in the sport’s best conference over a team with a better record in a weaker league?
The path to the dance for North Carolina continues to narrow after the Heels lost Tuesday night at Pittsburgh. It’s becoming increasingly clear the Heels will need a win over Duke to feel at all secure about their tournament hopes, and might need to win out in its non-Duke games without one just to stay in the mix.
* indicates a projected automatic qualifier
South Region
No. 1 Auburn Tigers* vs. No. 16 Southern Jaguars*/Morehead State Eagles*
No. 8 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 9 West Virginia Mountaineers
No. 5 Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. No. 12 Arkansas State Red Wolves*
No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders*
No. 6 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 11 UC Irvine Anteaters*
No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 14 Florida Gulf Coast Eagles*
No. 7 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 10 Oklahoma Sooners
No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 15 Cleveland State Vikings*
Kentucky added yet another elite win to its ledger Tuesday night, 78–73 on the road at Tennessee for the Wildcats’ fifth victory of the season over a team currently ranked in the top 15 of the AP poll. Those top-tier wins mean the Wildcats’ seeding floor feels incredibly high, with even a handful of more losses not likely to knock Mark Pope’s team out of the top four seed lines.
Meanwhile, Texas Tech is also on an upward trajectory, with five straight wins after beating TCU on Wednesday. The next three games provide some major opportunities to boost the Red Raiders’ resume, starting with a trip to face Houston on Saturday.
East Region
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils* vs. No. 16 American Eagles*/LIU Sharks*
No. 8 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 9 Vanderbilt Commodores
No. 5 Memphis Tigers* vs. No. 12 Drake Bulldogs*
No. 4 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 13 Samford Bulldogs*
No. 6 St. John’s Red Storm vs. No. 11 UCF Knights/Texas Longhorns
No. 3 Michigan State Spartans* vs. No. 14 Northern Colorado Bears*
No. 7 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 10 New Mexico Lobos*
No. 2 Florida Gators vs. No. 15 UNC Asheville Bulldogs*
St. John’s presents some interesting seeding challenges as a potential high-major conference champion that still lacks much meat on the bone from a résumé standpoint. For now, SJU has just one Quad 1 win, at Xavier in early January. Three of the Red Storm’s next four should be Quad 1 games, and Rick Pitino’s team could rocket up the seed list with wins there.
Vanderbilt hasn’t gone dancing since the 2016–17 season, but the Commodores are on track to hear their name called on Selection Sunday after a big win over Kentucky over the weekend. Vandy’s magic number is likely four: Four more SEC wins (putting them at 20 total wins and at worst 8–10 in league play) should have them in the field.
Midwest Region
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 16 Omaha Mavericks*
No. 8 Utah State Aggies vs. No. 9 Baylor Bears
No. 5 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 12 George Mason Patriots*
No. 4 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 13 Akron Zips*
No. 6 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 11 Pittsburgh Panthers/BYU Cougars
No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 14 Utah Valley Wolverines*
No. 7 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 10 Saint Mary’s Gaels*
No. 2 Houston Cougars vs. No. 15 Norfolk State Spartans*
Houston finally has its signature win, winning at Allen Fieldhouse for the first time in Kelvin Sampson’s career Saturday in thrilling fashion. That helps the Cougars, whose quality-based metrics are the best in the country, climb up to the No. 2 line despite its lack of Quad 1 wins. The longer UH stays undefeated in a league like the Big 12, the more the Cougars will climb up the seed list.
Meanwhile, Baylor continues to inch closer to the cut line after losing Tuesday in overtime to BYU. As things currently stand, the Bears have just one win against the field, a neutral-court win over St. John’s in mid-November. Scott Drew’s team needs to stack a few more of those to avoid being in real danger of missing the Big Dance.
West Region
No. 1 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 16 Marist Red Foxes*
No. 8 UConn Huskies vs. No. 9 Ohio State Buckeyes
No. 5 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 12 McNeese State Cowboys*
No. 4 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 13 Yale Bulldogs*
No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 11 San Diego State Aztecs
No. 3 Marquette Golden Eagles* vs. No. 14 Bryant Bulldogs*
No. 7 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 10 Georgia Bulldogs
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 15 William & Mary Tribe*
Arizona’s thrilling win over Iowa State has the Wildcats surging up the seed list. Since a 4–5 start, the Wildcats have won 10 of 11, adding four Quad 1 wins. Five of Arizona’s next six are likely to be Quad 1 games, so Tommy Lloyd’s team will get plenty more chances to climb in the coming weeks.
One more recent needle-mover is Maryland, which solved its biggest problem (lack of road wins) emphatically last week with wins over Illinois and Indiana. The Terps should now be safely in the field, save for a collapse in February.
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This article was originally published on www.si.com as Men’s Bracket Watch: SEC Bubble Teams Fighting for Conference Wins.
