This weekend represents an important milestone on the path to Selection Sunday. Saturday, the men’s NCAA tournament selection committee will unveil a mock top 16 teams, providing an early look at how the committee views several of the best teams in the sport. Although by the end of Saturday teams’ résumés will already look different, there’s plenty to learn from how the committee sees things Saturday morning that can translate throughout the next month. Here’s a look at Sports Illustrated’s updated projected field.
On the Bubble
Last Four Byes:
West Virginia Mountaineers
Vanderbilt Commodores
Nebraska Cornhuskers
San Diego State Aztecs
Last Four In:
Georgia Bulldogs
BYU Cougars
VCU Rams
SMU Mustangs
First Four Out:
Texas Longhorns
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Arkansas Razorbacks
Kansas State Wildcats
Next Four Out:
UC Irvine Anteaters
Indiana Hoosiers
Cincinnati Bearcats
North Carolina Tar Heels
Georgia doesn’t have a bad loss and sports wins over St. John’s and Kentucky, but a 5–9 record against the top two quadrants has the Bulldogs sweating. For now, they stay clear of Arkansas (4–9 vs. Q1+2) and Texas (6–10), but Mike White’s team needs to go at least 3–3 down the stretch to feel at all comfortable entering championship week.
No team in college basketball is hotter right now than Kansas State, which has surged from being one of the sport’s most disappointing teams into the thick of bubble conversations after six straight wins. That streak has included some monster résumé boosters, including a road win at Iowa State and home victories over Kansas and Arizona. Résumé metrics still aren’t a fan of KSU overall, with a “wins above bubble” over 60, but a strong finish could make the Wildcats one of the most interesting teams to follow as we approach Selection Sunday.
* indicates a projected automatic qualifier
South Region
No. 1 Auburn Tigers* vs. No. 16 Southern Jaguars*/American Eagles*
No. 8 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 9 Baylor Bears
No. 5 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons*
No. 4 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 13 Akron Zips*
No. 6 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 11 Georgia Bulldogs/VCU Rams
No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 14 Chattanooga Mocs*
No. 7 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 10 Vanderbilt Commodores
No. 2 Houston Cougars* vs. No. 15 Bryant Bulldogs*
Auburn remains solidly the No. 1 overall seed despite its loss to Florida at home over the weekend. The Tigers have the most wins in Quad 1A (seven), Quad 1 (13) and Quad 1+2 (16) of anyone in the country. The team with the best chance to top the Tigers: Alabama, which hosts their in-state rivals in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Saturday. Auburn might still have a slight edge even with a loss, but things would get interesting quickly.
Marquette ended its recent freefall with a win over DePaul on Tuesday night, but the Golden Eagles will rue three straight losses against the Big East's other three NCAA tournament teams come Selection Sunday. The Golden Eagles went from an outside case for a No. 1 seed two weeks ago to fighting for a protected seed.
Midwest Region
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 16 Omaha Mavericks*/SEMO Redhawks*
No. 8 Utah State Aggies vs. No. 9 Oklahoma Sooners
No. 5 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 12 Yale Bulldogs*
No. 4 St. John’s Red Storm* vs. No. 13 High Point Panthers*
No. 6 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 11 SMU Mustangs/BYU Cougars
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 14 Jacksonville State Gamecocks*
No. 7 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 10 Nebraska Cornhuskers
No. 2 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 15 Northern Colorado Bears*
Does Texas A&M have an outside shot at the No. 1 line? The Aggies quietly have built a terrific résumé, with neutral-court wins over Texas Tech, Purdue and Creighton in the nonconference and an 8–3 mark in SEC play. Win two of three against Tennessee, Florida and Auburn, and the Aggies will have a very strong case.
Utah State at 22–3 is doing all it can to climb out of the dreaded No. 8 vs. No. 9 game. While quality metrics are still somewhat skeptical of USU, an 8–3 mark in the top two quads and top-30 ranks in all three résumé metrics bolster its case. Circle this Saturday’s showdown at New Mexico as a chance to move the needle further.
East Region
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils* vs. No. 16 Merrimack Warriors*
No. 8 Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. No. 9 Gonzaga Bulldogs
No. 5 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 12 McNeese State Cowboys*
No. 4 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 13 Arkansas State Red Wolves*
No. 6 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 11 Drake Bulldogs*
No. 3 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 14 Towson Tigers*
No. 7 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 15 Central Connecticut State Blue Devils*
Tennessee lost the fourth No. 1 seed Tuesday with its loss at Kentucky combined with Florida’s road win at Mississippi State. The Vols have lived and died by the three in SEC play, shooting 39% from distance in seven conference victories and 24% in five league losses.
A mid-major team to watch in bubble conversations should it slip up in their conference tournament is Drake, thanks to a gaudy 23–2 record. That record includes a pair of big neutral-court wins over Vanderbilt and Kansas State that have aged nicely. That said, the Bulldogs have one Quad 3 loss already to Murray State and another not-great defeat at UIC that could slide down. This résumé is softer than the one that kept Indiana State out last year, but there likely won’t be as many bid thieves this time around. Regardless, bubble teams should be rooting for the Bulldogs to clinch the MVC’s automatic bid and avoid them entering the at-large pool.
West Region
No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 16 Norfolk State Spartans*
No. 8 Saint Mary’s Gaels* vs. No. 9 New Mexico Lobos*
No. 5 Memphis Tigers* vs. No. 12 George Mason Patriots*
No. 4 Michigan Wolverines* vs. No. 13 Lipscomb Bisons*
No. 6 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 11 San Diego State Aztecs
No. 3 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 14 Utah Valley Wolverines*
No. 7 UConn Huskies vs. No. 10 West Virginia Mountaineers
No. 2 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 15 Cleveland State Vikings*
Michigan now leads the Big Ten at 11–2 after avenging an earlier 27-point loss to Purdue on Tuesday night in Ann Arbor, Mich. A lack of big nonconference wins lowers the seeding ceiling a bit, but keep winning and the Wolverines have a chance to climb onto the No. 2 or No. 3 line.
San Diego State has played with fire lately, having stormed back against San Jose State twice plus against Air Force and Wyoming in the last three weeks. So far, the Aztecs have avoided a truly catastrophic loss, and the neutral-court win over Houston in November continues to age like fine wine. But the margin for error is slimming for a program that has been a staple in the Big Dance of late, and Saturday’s home tilt with Boise State looms large.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Men’s Bracket Watch: Kansas State Surges From Disappointment to Bubble Consideration.
