We’ve reached the final Bracket Watch update before the calendar flips to March, and bubble teams are doing little to simplify things for the selection committee right now. Teams on the periphery of late, like Georgia, Boise State and Indiana, have seen their standing improve, while teams that had steadily been in the field, like Wake Forest, Oklahoma and Texas, are now threatening to fall out. All that sets up for a wild stretch run to Selection Sunday, and Sports Illustrated will have you covered with all the bracket impacts up until the moment the field is revealed. Here’s a look at the latest update:
On the Bubble
Last Four Byes:
San Diego State Aztecs
Baylor Bears
Arkansas Razorbacks
Nebraska Cornhuskers
Last Four In:
Oklahoma Sooners
Indiana Hoosiers
Ohio State Buckeyes
Georgia Bulldogs
First Four Out:
North Carolina Tar Heels
Boise State Broncos
Xavier Musketeers
Texas Longhorns
Next Four Out:
Cincinnati Bearcats
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
George Mason Patriots
SMU Mustangs
Indiana’s bizarre season took yet another turn over the weekend with its upset win over Purdue. That, combined with a win Wednesday over Penn State, has vaulted the Hoosiers into the field after at one point losing seven of eight. The Hoosiers have just four wins since Jan. 8, but three of them have been major needle-movers (at Ohio State, at Michigan State, vs. Purdue). A split out West and a season-ending win over Ohio State might be enough to get them dancing.
Wake Forest has done damage to its résumé that will be hard to repair, with three losses in four games all to Quad 2 and 3 opponents. Its latest defeat, a home loss to Virginia, is the worst on paper and will be hard to come back from. A win at Duke early next week would erase all the damage, but without that, the Deacs might have to win the ACC tournament to get in.
* indicates a projected automatic qualifier
South Region
No. 1 Auburn Tigers* vs. No. 16 SEMO Redhawks*/Marist Red Foxes*
No. 8 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 9 New Mexico Lobos*
No. 5 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 12 Ohio State Buckeyes/Georgia Bulldogs
No. 4 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 13 Jacksonville State Gamecocks*
No. 6 Saint Mary’s Gaels* vs. No. 11 Nebraska Cornhuskers
No. 3 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 14 Chattanooga Mocs*
No. 7 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 10 Baylor Bears
No. 2 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 15 Montana Grizzlies*
Résumé metrics still love Texas A&M, but the Aggies are suffering some from a quality standpoint after losses to Mississippi State, Tennessee and Vanderbilt. It might be hard to stop the slide, too, with a trip to Florida next and Auburn coming to town after that. The Aggies should be fine for a protected seed, but getting back on the No. 2 line will be challenging and hope of sneaking into the No. 1 seed conversation is now gone.
Baylor has quietly been one of the bigger disappointments in the country, now under .500 in Big 12 play and just 16–12 overall after losing for the fourth time in five games Tuesday. The Bears have two winnable games upcoming against Oklahoma State and TCU, but stumble in one of those and it becomes a very real conversation whether the Bears are dancing.
East Region
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils* vs. No. 16 Southern Jaguars*/American Eagles*
No. 8 Gonzaga Bulldogs vs. No. 9 Utah State Aggies
No. 5 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 12 High Point Panthers*
No. 4 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 13 Lipscomb Bisons*
No. 6 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 11 VCU Rams*
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 14 Utah Valley Wolverines*
No. 7 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 10 Arkansas Razorbacks
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 15 Robert Morris Colonials*
Purdue is in a freefall, losers of four straight. None of the four would be considered a bad loss, the worst being its Sunday defeat at Indiana that elevated its biggest rival back into the NCAA tournament field. The résumé is still strong, but righting the ship before the Big Ten tournament is a must. Friday’s home game vs. UCLA should be a good measuring stick.
The committee has a serious conundrum on its hands with Gonzaga. The threat of the Bulldogs missing the NCAA tournament altogether is likely gone after adding a Quad 1 win at Santa Clara on Tuesday, which now presents a seeding problem. Gonzaga hasn’t earned being far above the bubble cut line, but sticking a No. 1 seed with a second-round matchup that the NET considers a top-10 team is also rough bracketing. Gonzaga can solve this problem by adding good wins in the WCC tournament (and in its regular-season finale at San Francisco) to climb more, but if it can’t, the committee may be left with no choice but to seed it around this range.
Midwest Region
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 16 Omaha Mavericks*
No. 8 Vanderbilt Commodores vs. No. 9 UConn Huskies
No. 5 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons*
No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 13 Yale Bulldogs*
No. 6 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 11 Drake Bulldogs*
No. 3 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 14 James Madison Dukes*
No. 7 Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. No. 10 San Diego State Aztecs
No. 2 Michigan State Spartans* vs. No. 15 Central Connecticut Blue Devils*
Alabama’s schedule to wrap up SEC play is absolutely ridiculous. The Tide get Tennessee in Knoxville, Tenn., on Saturday, come home to play Florida on Wednesday and then wrap up the regular season on the road at Auburn. How many of those games do they need to win to lock up a No. 1 seed? Two would secure it, but one should position them well to stay on the top line.
Michigan State couldn’t have scripted a better two weeks. After the shocking loss to Indiana at home that knocked the Spartans out of the top 16 in the selection committee’s early reveal, the Spartans have stacked four straight monster victories … three of them away from home. That was capped by the buzzer-beating win at Maryland on Wednesday that further bolstered what is becoming one of the strongest résumés in the sport. Win out, and that fourth No. 1 seed might be on the table.
West Region
No. 1 Houston Cougars* vs. No. 16 Norfolk State Spartans*
No. 8 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 9 BYU Cougars
No. 5 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 12 McNeese State Cowboys*
No. 4 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 13 Akron Zips*
No. 6 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners/Indiana Hoosiers
No. 3 St. John’s Red Storm* vs. No. 14 Towson Tigers*
No. 7 Memphis Tigers* vs. No. 10 West Virginia Mountaineers
No. 2 Florida Gators vs. No. 15 Bryant Bulldogs*
The fourth No. 1 seed is now Houston after the Cougars won on the road at Texas Tech on Monday. Kelvin Sampson’s team now has the résumé to match its gaudy quality metrics, thanks to its three elite road wins in conference play at Kansas, Arizona and now in Lubbock earlier this week. Win these next three games to wrap up Big 12 play, and I’d be very surprised if Houston isn’t on the No. 1 line on Selection Sunday.
BYU not being able to play on Sundays adds another bracketing wrinkle for the selection committee to consider, especially now that the Cougars look essentially locked into the field after a huge win at Arizona over the weekend. It’s possible that BYU could be dropped down a seed line or two in order to accommodate the Thursday/Saturday requirement, though Houston landing on the No. 1 line in Wichita helped simplify things some and allowed BYU to land as a No. 9 in the bracket as it did in our seed list.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Men’s Bracket Watch: Indiana on the Bubble After Upset Win Over Purdue.
