Opportunities are dwindling for teams to make their case to the men’s NCAA tournament selection committee on why they should be dancing this March. With only three weeks left in the regular season (fewer in many mid-major conferences), the stretch run is officially here. While results can certainly feel magnified this time of year, the overall body of work still remains the most important thing in the eyes of the committee.
Here’s the latest update in where things stand in Sports Illustrated’s projected field:
On the Bubble
Last Four Byes:
West Virginia Mountaineers
San Diego State Aztecs
Ohio State Buckeyes
Texas Longhorns
Last Four In:
Vanderbilt Commodores
Wake Forest Demon Deacons
Oklahoma Sooners
VCU Rams
First Four Out:
Arkansas Razorbacks
Xavier Musketeers
UC Irvine Anteaters
Georgia Bulldogs
Next Four Out:
SMU Mustangs
North Carolina Tar Heels
Indiana Hoosiers
Cincinnati Bearcats
Once 13–0, Oklahoma’s NCAA tournament hopes are on very thin ice with the Sooners just 3–10 in SEC play. Saturday’s loss to LSU was an abject disaster; one of the only bad losses out there in the loaded SEC and a missed chance to add a cheap victory to the win total. At minimum, the Sooners need three more conference wins to be in the conversation, and even then would be a controversial bubble team at 6–12 in conference play. Unfortunately, it’s an all-too-familiar script for Porter Moser’s team, which has been on the wrong side of the bubble in gutting fashion in two of the last three years.
Xavier keeps hanging around the bubble conversation despite a 1–9 record in Quad 1 games. The one win, however, is a monster road win at Marquette. The Musketeers have a manageable schedule the rest of the way, with their hardest game left at home against Creighton next Saturday. Hold serve while others around them lose and we could see the Musketeers in the field.
* indicates a projected automatic qualifier
South Region
No. 1 Auburn Tigers* vs. No. 16 Quinnipiac Bobcats*/SEMO Redhawks*
No. 8 New Mexico Lobos vs. No. 9 Gonzaga Bulldogs
No. 5 Missouri Tigers vs. No. 12 McNeese State Cowboys*
No. 4 Michigan State Spartans vs. No. 13 Akron Zips*
No. 6 Illinois Fighting Illini vs. No. 11 Vanderbilt Commodores/VCU Rams
No. 3 Iowa State Cyclones vs. No. 14 North Alabama Lions*
No. 7 Louisville Cardinals vs. No. 10 San Diego State Aztecs
No. 2 Texas A&M Aggies vs. No. 15 Central Connecticut Blue Devils*
Michigan State wasn’t in the committee’s initial top 16, but beating Illinois and Purdue has the Spartans climbing again. Three more monster matchups loom: at Michigan, at Maryland and home against Wisconsin, all in the next 10 days. Sweep them, and Sparty might even have an outside shot at the No. 1 line.
North Alabama has never danced, but the Lions have the lead in the Sun Belt and just notched their 20th win of the season Tuesday night. It has been a remarkable year for basketball in the state, with Auburn and Alabama rolling at the top but many of the mid-major programs also performing well. Circle Thursday's game at Lipscomb if you enjoy good hoops outside the power conferences.
East Region
No. 1 Duke Blue Devils* vs. No. 16 Southern Jaguars*/American Eagles*
No. 8 Creighton Bluejays vs. No. 9 Utah State Aggies
No. 5 Marquette Golden Eagles vs. No. 12 UC San Diego Tritons*
No. 4 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. No. 13 South Alabama Jaguars*
No. 6 Clemson Tigers vs. No. 11 Texas Longhorns
No. 3 Purdue Boilermakers vs. No. 14 Towson Tigers*
No. 7 UCLA Bruins vs. No. 10 West Virginia Mountaineers
No. 2 Tennessee Volunteers vs. No. 15 Bryant Bulldogs*
Duke gets just its fourth Quad 1 opportunity since Dec. 8 on Saturday against Illinois at Madison Square Garden. The Illini are a banged-up bunch, with forward Morez Johnson Jr. sidelined with a broken wrist and an unknown illness ravaging the rest of the team. Still, Duke’s hopes of locking up a No. 1 seed require a win here given the dearth of other chances the rest of the way.
Is a two-bid Big West possible? Both UC San Diego and UC Irvine sit at 22–4 and at least somewhat in the bubble mix should they slip up in the conference tournament. UCSD seems slightly better-positioned than Irvine, thanks to a road win at Utah State and impressive quality metrics. If they could win out and lose to Irvine in the Big West title game, I’d bet on the Tritons sneaking in.
Midwest Region
No. 1 Florida Gators vs. No. 16 Cleveland State Vikings*
No. 8 Oregon Ducks vs. No. 9 Baylor Bears
No. 5 Maryland Terrapins vs. No. 12 George Mason Patriots*
No. 4 Kentucky Wildcats vs. No. 13 High Point Panthers*
No. 6 Kansas Jayhawks vs. No. 11 Oklahoma Sooners/Wake Forest Demon Deacons
No. 3 Michigan Wolverines vs. No. 14 Chattanooga Mocs*
No. 7 Saint Mary’s Gaels* vs. No. 10 Ohio State Buckeyes
No. 2 Houston Cougars* vs. No. 15 Montana Grizzlies*
Kansas has been a No. 4 seed or better in every NCAA tournament since 2000. That absurd streak is now in serious jeopardy after the Jayhawks were swept in Utah, capped by a 34-point drubbing by BYU on Tuesday night. KU has beaten one projected NCAA tournament team since November, a victory over Iowa State in early February. The path to a protected seed isn’t completely over, but the Jayhawks are simply not playing good basketball right now.
An interesting bubble team to monitor is Ohio State, which hasn’t quite cemented its place in the field despite monster wins over Kentucky, Purdue and Maryland. The Buckeyes are just 7–11 against the top two quads and 9–11 in games outside of Quad 4, marks that have traditionally been big red flags for selection. A strong finish against a manageable stretch of schedule should make them comfortable, but a slip-up or two and things could get interesting in a hurry.
West Region
No. 1 Alabama Crimson Tide vs. No. 16 Omaha Mavericks*
No. 8 UConn Huskies vs. No. 9 Nebraska Cornhuskers
No. 5 Ole Miss Rebels vs. No. 12 Yale Bulldogs*
No. 4 St. John’s Red Storm* vs. No. 13 Jacksonville State Gamecocks*
No. 6 Mississippi State Bulldogs vs. No. 11 Drake Bulldogs*
No. 3 Arizona Wildcats vs. No. 14 Utah Valley Wolverines*
No. 7 Memphis Tigers* vs. No. 10 BYU Cougars
No. 2 Wisconsin Badgers vs. No. 15 Norfolk State Spartans*
This has been quite the last week for Wisconsin, which added two massive wins to its ledger with a road victory against Purdue and a home 21-point victory over Illinois. Considering the Badgers were already on the No. 3 line before those wins according to the committee, Greg Gard’s team has now climbed to a No. 2, making them the highest-seeded Big Ten team as of now. The path to a No. 1 seed is narrow, but holding strong on the No. 2 line feels more than doable.
Meanwhile, Memphis continues to play with its food in AAC play, the latest setback an overtime loss Sunday at Wichita State. With three Quad 3 losses now, the Tigers have slipped onto the No. 7 line and the margin to stay out of the dreaded 8-vs.-9 game is dwindling. The Tigers’ top-end wins are strong, but quality metrics are very skeptical of this group: the average of Memphis’s KenPom, BPI and T-Rank ranks worse than that of bubble teams like North Carolina, SMU and Xavier.
This article was originally published on www.si.com as Men’s Bracket Watch: Examining Oklahoma and Bubble Teams With Weak Conference Records.
