His name was spelled out in bright lights reminiscent of a Broadway show. Donald Trump thanked God for sparing him from an assassin’s bullet. To thousands of devoted fans, the carefully stage-managed Republican national convention felt like the coronation of a man poised for victory over an ageing, ailing incumbent.
But Trump’s long and grievance-filled address that night hinted at trouble to come. For months his US presidential election campaign had been praised as tighter, smoother and more professional this time around. Then, when Democrats upended the race by replacing Joe Biden with Kamala Harris as their nominee, the wheels came off.
For the past three weeks the former president has been lashing out, pushing lies, hurling insults, trialling nicknames, trafficking in racism and trotting out nonsense as he struggles to regain the narrative from Vice-President Harris.
“The campaign is disciplined; their candidate is not,” said Frank Luntz, a consultant and pollster who has a long track record of advising Republican campaigns. “Their candidate is single-handedly destroying his chance for re-election. This is the weakest Democratic nominee in terms of record in a long time but [Trump’s] insistence on making the attacks personal and vicious are blunting their impact and, in fact, backfiring on him.”
Although Trump has amply demonstrated his inability to change, he seemed easier to rein in when times were good. The leaders of his third consecutive White House campaign, the veteran operatives Chris LaCivita and Susie Wiles, earned applause from Republicans as the former president steamrollered opposition during this year’s primary elections.
The new sense of command and control seemed to hold as Trump, 78, held a consistent edge over 81-year-old Biden in opinion polls. The Republican nominee’s preposterous riffs about sharks and Hannibal Lecter on the campaign trail raised eyebrows but did nothing to blunt his momentum.
Even criminal charges and convictions were rapidly turned into opportunities to raise money and galvanise his base. When Trump survived an assassination attempt at a rally in Pennsylvania last month, and responded by raising his fist and urging supporters to “fight”, headline writers asked: “Did Donald Trump just win the election?”
Some wondered if the brush with death would produce a softer, more contemplative candidate. But seasoned Trump watchers pointed out that there have been many false dawns and, ultimately, Trump is always Trump. His 92-minute convention address in Milwaukee recycled old false claims and recriminations and was by the far the longest of any nominee in history.
Three days later, everything changed. Bowing to pressure from fellow Democrats, Biden announced that he would not seek re-election and threw his weight behind 59-year-old Harris, around whom the party quickly coalesced. A Trump campaign that had been honed to target Biden’s age was suddenly wrongfooted and trying to define a new opponent. His running mate JD Vance described it as “a political sucker punch”.
John Zogby, a pollster and author of Beyond the Horse Race: How to Read Polls and Why We Should, said: “The campaign was much more disciplined than last time and so disciplined that it had its message perfected, which was ‘Sleepy Joe’ and ‘Crooked Joe’. It was all based on Joe Biden. To a large degree Vance was correct when he said they were sucker-punched because this is a whole new situation.
“Age and mental acuity are off the table. It’s all going to be about Kamala Harris’s record but she’s in a much better position to control that message than Biden would be. You do see Donald Trump flailing here and being reduced much more to those one-liners – and you wonder if people are getting tired of hearing them.”
LaCivita and Wiles appeared to lose control of their candidate. Trump tossed around strange nicknames for his rival such as “Laffin’ Kamala Harris” and “Kamabla”. He unleashed a tirade on his Truth Social platform, describing her as too “low IQ” and “dumb” to debate him. His speeches have become increasingly unhinged.
At a rally in Atlanta, he castigated Brian Kemp, the Republican Georgia governor whose support he needs in the swing state. Speaking to evangelicals in West Palm Beach, Florida, Trump said: “Christians, get out and vote just this time. In four years, you don’t have to vote again. We’ll have it fixed so good you’re not going to have to vote.”
At a gathering of the National Association of Black Journalists in Chicago, Trump turned on his interviewers and falsely questioned Harris’s mixed race heritage, saying: “She was Indian all the way, and then all of a sudden she made a turn and she became a Black person.”
And at a press conference at his Mar-a-Lago estate in Florida on Thursday, Trump again demeaned Harris’s intelligence, falsely claimed that no one died at the US Capitol insurrection on 6 January 2021 and asserted he had a bigger crowd that day than Martin Luther King when he spoke at the 1963 March on Washington.
The Republican also insisted that he continues to lead Harris but polls suggest otherwise as the Democratic nominee and her running mate, the Minnesota governor, Tim Walz, ride a wave of voter energy and enthusiasm. She raised $310m in the month of July alone, comfortably ahead of Trump’s $138.7m.
Luntz said: “Right now she’s the frontrunner. Right now I think Trump’s gonna lose because he’s incapable of sticking to a message about inflation or immigration. His administration is considered much more successful on the two issues that matter to people yet he’s now tied with or losing to the vice-president of that administration. Why is that? It’s he himself.”
The withdrawal of Biden following his dismal debate performance in June did not take Republicans entirely by surprise. Speakers at the convention often referred to the “Biden-Harris” administration in their speeches and the Trump campaign had prepared anti-Harris videos to swap in just in case Biden stepped down sooner.
Their central argument is that Harris carries the baggage of Biden’s biggest failures on border security – she was tapped to lead efforts to tackle the migration challenge – as well as inflation and foreign policy. It is a message that needs to be prosecuted with scalpel-like precision. But Trump has come at the problem with a jackhammer.
Antjuan Seawright, a Democratic strategist based in Columbia, South Carolina, said: “In the words of Britney Spears, oops! he did it again. While all these people want to remake who Donald Trump really is, he consistently shows us who he is and we should learn that old lesson from the south: there’s no education in the second kick of the mule.”
The new Trump turns out to be the same old Trump. Reflecting on the assassination attempt during a recent rally in Minnesota, the former president commented: “They all say, ‘I think he’s changed since two weeks ago. Something affected him.’ No, I haven’t changed. Maybe I’ve gotten worse, actually.”
