After the opening rounds of the 2024 Formula One season there was an almost leaden reception to the fare on track. Max Verstappen was laying waste to the opposition having dominated for the past two years. That the sport now returns from its summer break reinvigorated and presenting a potentially fearsome competition in the remaining 10 races is as welcome as it was unexpected.
The Dutchman, who will compete in his 200th race at his home meeting at Zandvoort this weekend, won four of the opening five races for Red Bull. That run’s only blemish was a brake problem that cost him a probable win in Australia. In the fourth round in Japan, he cantered round Suzuka, taking the flag 20 seconds up on the nearest challenger not driving a Red Bull, Ferrari’s Carlos Sainz. It was ominous and – for all but the 26-year-old’s most ardent fans – dispiriting after he had crushed the field in 2022 and 2023.
Fortunately, sport does not always follow the script and before the Dutch Grand Prix, Verstappen and Red Bull are all too aware they are in a fight. Since Lando Norris won in Miami at round six, McLaren have had arguably the quickest car and Mercedes have finally unlocked the potential in their previously recalcitrant ride. The season has seen seven different winners as the understudies have elbowed their way on to Verstappen’s stage.
Verstappen has not won for the past four races, since the Spanish GP in June. He and his team are under pressure and in Zandvoort he repeatedly answered questions with a telling insistence that finding more performance was their only goal. The edge has gone.
His needs have not been met with quite the success that might have been expected. The upgrades Red Bull brought to Hungary, looking to improve pace on high-downforce tracks where they struggle, proved unimpressive. Eking more out of their advantage is proving difficult.
Indeed in the opening practice session yesterday, with limited running because of rain, Norris was quickest, two-tenths up on Verstappen, with Lewis Hamilton third. In the afternoon on a dry track, George Russell topped the timesheets, six-hundredths up on Oscar Piastri, with Hamilton third, followed by Norris and Verstappen.
However, Verstappen remains favourite to take the title and has a 78-point lead over Norris, but he will be made to fight for every win. Norris should be closer and admitted the minor errors that have cost him potential wins since Miami, as have the team, given what has been a quick car after major upgrades there.
Since then, the McLaren has presented the most consistent performance, repeatedly in the mix for wins, with Piastri also taking the flag at the Hungaroring. The team expect more and are expected to have more improvements in the locker on the run-in, not least with a swathe of updates in Zandvoort.
They have been aided too by Sergio Pérez’s poor performances for Red Bull, putting McLaren only 42 points behind, having outscored their rivals for the past eight races. A first constructors’ title since 1998 is on the table and Red Bull’s decision to stick with Pérez for the rest of the season could backfire.
Mercedes are back in the mix after winning three of the past four races for Hamilton and Russell with a series of upgrades to the W15 that after three years of asking is finally hitting its stride. They are yet to match McLaren and Red Bull, but the sense is that a corner has been turned.
Yet for Hamilton, the identity of the only team who have failed to turn up for the midseason party is significant. Hamilton will join Ferrari next season and although they opened as the closest challenger to Red Bull, the Scuderia have fallen away. Where McLaren’s upgrade was revelatory, Ferrari’s major effort in Spain left them bouncing in high-speed corners and their drivers struggling for confidence in the car.
They have since reverted to a previous iteration of the car’s floor and fast-tracked a new development. They expect to bridge the gap, the intent at Maranello to return to being competitive and ramping up the pressure on Verstappen. Whether they deliver may yet have an impact on the title fight but will be of no little import for Hamilton as he prepares to don the scarlet in 2025. It is another plot line in what had appeared to be a predictable season.
