Before Matthew Stafford was traded to the Los Angeles Rams in 2021, he put up passing numbers that rival many quarterbacks already in the Pro Football Hall of Fame. Despite being one of the most prolific passers of this generation, he wasn’t garnering much consideration as someone who could be enshrined in Canton someday.
With an 0-3 playoff record, only four seasons above .500 and zero division titles in Detroit, it’s easy to understand why few people viewed him as a future Hall of Famer.
In the last four years, though, he’s bolstered his case significantly and is finally earning the credit he deserves. He may not be throwing for 4,000 yards a season like he was in Detroit, but Stafford’s success with the Rams has rewritten the narrative of his career. He’s gone from stuffing the stat sheet on bad teams to consistently winning in even the biggest moments.
If he continues to play the way he has in recent years, it’s going to be really hard to keep him out of Canton. For starters, his overall stats are good enough to get him a bust in the Hall of Fame.
Here’s a look at where he ranks all-time in various categories.
- Passing yards: 59,809 (10th)
- Passing TDs: 377 (10th)
- Passing yards/game: 269.4 (6th)
- Game-winning drives: 49 (5th)
- 4th-quarter comebacks: 38 (4th)
He has more passing yards and touchdowns than all but three current Hall of Famers. There’s only one Hall of Famer with more fourth-quarter comebacks than Stafford, and that’s Peyton Manning (43). Manning is also the only Hall of Famer who averaged more yards per game than Stafford in his career.
And anyone who wants to argue that Stafford hasn’t done enough in the playoffs to warrant Hall of Fame consideration, think again.
His 103.0 career passer rating in the playoffs is fourth-best in NFL history, with Bart Starr being the only Hall of Fame quarterback ahead of him. Prior to Monday’s game where he only had 209 yards in a 27-9 win over the Vikings, Stafford was the NFL’s all-time leader in passing yards per game in the playoffs. Now, he’s fourth with an average of 296.9. Kurt Warner and Dan Fouts are the lone Hall of Famers ahead of Stafford.
Stafford’s three game-winning drives in the playoffs are tied for the 10th-most and his two fourth-quarter comebacks are tied for the 12th-most – one of which came in Super Bowl LVI against the Bengals to win the Rams their first ring in over 20 years.
Stafford has always been clutch despite playing on some bad teams in Detroit, as evidenced by his 49 career game-winning drives. But he’s taken his play in big games to another level since joining the Rams.
In the last four years, he’s 19-3 in the months of December, January and February – you know, the months when the biggest games are played. That’s the best record of any quarterback in the NFL since 2021. He’s gone 5-1 in the postseason with the Rams and is the first quarterback in league history to throw multiple touchdown passes in his first six playoff games with a team.
If you dig even deeper, advanced analytics further cement Stafford’s status as one of the best postseason quarterbacks. Since 2000, his +0.24 EPA/dropback in the playoffs is the best among all quarterbacks with at least 300 dropbacks.
Matthew Stafford has the Highest EPA per Dropback among all QBs with 300+ DBs in the playoffs since 2000 (+0.24) 🎯 pic.twitter.com/c8ZVnBXP02
— The 33rd Team (@The33rdTeamFB) January 14, 2025
Pro Football Reference has a Hall of Fame Monitor metric that measures a player’s chances of getting into the Hall of Fame using Approximate Value, MVP awards, Pro Bowl selections and other criteria.
Based on that, Stafford’s number is 84.23, which is a little bit short of the average Hall of Fame QB (103.58). He has time to keep climbing, though, as long as he continues to play for several years to come.
What will help his candidacy most is winning another championship this year. If he leads the Rams to a Super Bowl and wins it, which would be his second in four years, there’s no doubt he’ll be in the Hall of Fame one day. Even if he simply gets to the Super Bowl and loses, it’ll bolster his claim for a spot in Canton.
As of now, Eli Manning’s Hall of Fame Monitor is 86.01 and he’s already a finalist in his first year of eligibility. It’s hard to imagine a world where Stafford doesn’t garner the same consideration in his first year, even if he doesn’t win a second ring like Manning.
Stafford is one of the best quarterbacks of his generation, from both a statistical and postseason standpoint. He was always racking up the yards and touchdowns to garner consideration, but now that he’s winning in the playoffs, he’s rewritten the narrative of his career.
And it might just get him into Canton.
