Not much went right for the Los Angeles Rams in Texas. With two minutes left in the first half, Matthew Stafford’s team trailed the Dallas Cowboys by 30 points.
Stafford wasn’t fully responsible for that stomping, but he didn’t help. He completed just 59 percent of his passes and threw a pick-six that served as an extra shovel at the team’s Week 8 burial. Even worse, he left the game due to injury, returned for a few plays that had no meaningful impact on the outcome, then seemed to re-aggravate that injury before being sidelined for good in the third quarter.
That was bad, but was this weekend’s worst starting quarterback? Fortunately, we’ve got tools to better understand just how damaging these underwhelming performances were. Using the advanced stat expected points added (EPA) can gauge how much a quarterback brings to the table compared to a typical player.
By comparing each passer’s Week 8 EPA against their 2022 and 2023 combined average, we get a better picture of just how frustrating their days were. And we can find both of those thanks to The Athletic’s Ben Baldwin and his incredibly useful stats sites RBSDM.com and HabitatRing.com. So let’s take a look at who disappointed the most in the eighth game (for most players) of the 2023 season.
7
Kenny Pickett, Pittsburgh Steelers
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: -0.1
Week 8 EPA: -4.1
Difference: Four points worse
Yeah, that’s about what you sign up for when you’re bought in to the Kenny Pickett experience. The issue this time around is that a rib injury kept him from playing in the second half, robbing us of one or two absolute darts to George Pickens that helped Pittsburgh storm back from an early deficit and rewarded the Steelers’ defense for being monsters for 50 minutes.
Pickett dropped back 17 times for 68 net passing yards. He had some moments, but mostly he was a low watt light bulb, barely illuminating the darkest corners of a Pittsburgh basement (which, as those in the Steel City know, probably has a lone toilet propped up somewhere inside).
6
Brock Purdy, San Francisco 49ers
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 9.8
Week 8 EPA: 3.1
Difference: 6.7 points worse
Is it time to be worried about Brock Purdy yet? For the third time in three weeks, the second-year quarterback was a drain on his offense, turning the ball over and generally looking more and more like we’d expect from a guy who was the final selection of the 2022 NFL Draft.
On Sunday, this led to a third straight loss advanced stats didn’t think was as damaging as it was to anyone watching. Purdy, buoyed by his playmakers, sprang for 300-plus passing yards for just the second time this season, though a decent chunk came in the final seconds of an already-decided game in which the Bengals had little impetus to stop his screen passes (two completions, 69 yards). He also sabotaged any chance of a streak-breaking comeback with backbreaking turnovers throughout the second half.
It’s tough to decide which was more damaging. His first interception was a function of a great play from Germaine Pratt, but it also came deep in the Cincinnati red zone.
Germaine Pratt with the interception of the day?! 🔥 #RuleTheJungle
📺: #CINvsSF on CBS
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/Quwvdzpx7G pic.twitter.com/Zs1DbQrKc1— NFL (@NFL) October 29, 2023
The second didn’t have the same stakes, but it followed a potentially tide-turning defensive stand by completely blanking Logan Wilson’s coverage underneath:
YEEEEHAW#CINatSF | 📺 CBS pic.twitter.com/ut0ScQ6IuV
— Cincinnati Bengals (@Bengals) October 29, 2023
One play later, the Bengals were in the end zone and San Francisco trailed by 14. There’s also a strip sack that followed that neither the NFL nor Cincinnati’s official Twitter accounts felt like cataloguing because, at this point, it felt like piling on.
That makes five interceptions and two fumbles — one lost — over three straight San Francisco defeats. Purdy had played like the league’s most efficient quarterback over the first quarter of the season. Now he’s showcasing some Blake Bortles-ian instincts by blanking coverages and generally making the kinds of mistakes he cannot afford to make.
5
Matthew Stafford, Los Angeles Rams
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 1.3
Week 8 EPA: -6
Difference: 7.3 points worse
The good news: Matthew Stafford caught a pass in the end zone for a two-point conversion.
The bad news: He re-aggravated a thumb injury that had haunted him earlier in the game, ending his afternoon in the third quarter of a blowout loss in Texas.
Stafford is still capable of greatness, but between last year’s injury-shortened season and this year’s uneven start, he’s been well off his historic pace when it comes to passing efficiency. Week 8’s performance in a gruesome loss to the Dallas Cowboys is only going to make his mediocre 2022-23 numbers worse.
.@DaRon_Bland and pick-sixes just go together 🤧
📺: FOX & NFL+ ➡️ https://t.co/yLMhJNTZjs pic.twitter.com/K2Kld98yA8
— Dallas Cowboys (@dallascowboys) October 29, 2023
The veteran was tasked with playing from behind against the Cowboys’ ferocious pass rush, found little success in his two-plus quarters of action. If he was throwing to his left, he was probably fine. Over the middle or to the right? Different story.
4
Desmond Ridder, Atlanta Falcons
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: -0.6
Week 8 EPA: -10.2
Difference: 9.6 points worse
The numbers weren’t kind to the second-year quarterback to begin with. Ridder’s inability to protect the ball — Sunday was the backdrop to his seventh fumble of the season — left his with an average negative impact throughout his 11 games as the Falcons’ starting quarterback. In Week 8, his efficient, if low impact, passing was unable to offset those struggles.
Guess who? @GrindSimmons94
📺: Watch #ATLvsTEN on @NFLonCBS pic.twitter.com/7UGlkBW4FV
— Titans (Oilers Version) (@Titans) October 29, 2023
Ridder had completed eight of 12 passes before leaving the game in the second half to be checked for a potential concussion, but only covered 71 yards in that stretch. Factor in five sacks and three scrambles his 20 dropbacks net only 58 total yards. He completed just one pass that flew more than eight yards beyond the line of scrimmage, which isn’t so bad when you consider he only threw three such balls Sunday afternoon.
What’s worse is he was soundly outplayed by backup Taylor Heinicke, who completed 12 of 21 passes for 175 yards and a touchdown without a turnover — and whose numbers would have been even better if not for a poorly timed Van Jefferson drop.
VAN JEFFERSON NOOOOOO
pic.twitter.com/mFUqAdmchl— Craven Moorehead (Bears 2025 Super Bowl Champs) (@NosebleedNews) October 29, 2023
Heinicke finished his game with 6.8 EPA — or roughly 0.77 EPA/play better than Ridder was before departing.
3
Zach Wilson, New York Jets
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: -4.3
Week 8 EPA: -16.8
Difference: 12.5 points worse
First thing first: Wilson came through when it mattered, taking advantage of a missed chip(ish) shot field goal and leading the Jets 58 yards in 24 seconds — without a timeout! — to force overtime against the New York Giants. That was great, and the only bright spot in this cursed nightmare of a Week 8 game.
With an average game impact of -4.3 expected points, it’s difficult for Wilson to fail hard enough to qualify for this column. Yet that’s exactly what he did despite a sterling opportunity to blow a New York Giants team down to its third-string quarterback out of the water. To best experience this quarterback breakdown, have the audio recording of Shelley’s Ozymandias in the background:
For the first 59:30 of this game, Wilson had led 12 drives (!) that gained 10 yards or fewer. He had more sacks taken the entire game (four) than completions that traveled at least 10 yards downfield. He was, for the bulk of this game, very, very bad — even compared to your average Zach Wilson performance.
But he won, so he deserves credit for getting the best of, sigh, Tommy Devito.
2
Jordan Love, Green Bay Packers
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 4.3
Week 8 EPA: -9.6
Difference: 13.9 points worse
It took nearly 26 minutes of game time before the Packers secured their first first down of the game. Some of this struggle can be chalked up to a lacking run game. Some of it was due to untimely drops. But most of it was due to the fact Love simply couldn’t find any traction against an aggressive Minnesota Vikings defense.
Brian Flores is good at this. brings Harrison Smith up to blitz (he does this a lot) and baits Jordan Love into a throw that would normally work, but doesn't because Camryn Bynum knows that's gonna be his first option and, accordingly, fills the space pic.twitter.com/ml5C5DeptU
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 29, 2023
Love remained problematic, mixing quality throws:
jordan love commmmeeee onnnnnnn (complimentary) pic.twitter.com/ziUIhTwvoW
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 29, 2023
with outright misses:
Jordan Love commmmeeee onnnnnnn pic.twitter.com/g3dPQUSowd
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) October 29, 2023
as he wasted what had been a solid defensive effort with turnovers and a general inability to turn productive drives into points. Love brings flashes of ability to the pocket but the only consistent thing about him has been his inability to slide the ball into tight windows downfield. His placement just hasn’t been there, and while he’s processing the game more or less correctly, the bridge between identifying opportunities and taking advantage of them has been dynamited time and time again, leaving little chance of crossing.
1
Patrick Mahomes, Kansas City Chiefs
2022-23 expected points added (EPA) per game: 13.9
Week 8 EPA: -7.2
Difference: 21.1 points worse
The problem with being as good as Mahomes is? When he’s merely average, it feels like a big deal.
So when he’s actively bad? Hoooo buddy, it’s a problem.
Mahomes was done few favors by a depleted receiving corps, but ultimately couldn’t find any semblance of connection with his guys downfield. His nine throws of 15-plus yards downfield ended with as many completions (two) as interceptions.
In fairness, one of those interceptions was actually a net gain on fourth-and-22 from deep inside Chiefs territory, but the fact things even came to that paints a grim picture for Kansas City. Mahomes simply didn’t have it in the cold, thin air of Colorado.
.@jsimms1119 will take that. 😤
📺: CBS pic.twitter.com/WXDmgzKaQc
— Denver Broncos (@Broncos) October 29, 2023
While this was the most damaging performance of the week, it’s also the easiest to comprehend; an outlier instead of a trend like the ones scuttling seasons for Purdy and Love. Mahomes will likely be fine and Week 8’s loss will go down as the typical unexpected midseason loss the Chiefs absorb each season before moving on to the AFC title game. But let’s keep an eye on things, just in case.
