The Los Angeles Rams lost to the Detroit Lions to end their season Sunday night. With a roster whose biggest stars are aging veterans, this would be cause for concern.
But even after getting beaten by their old quarterback (Jared Goff), the Rams don’t have to worry about the end of an era. They can be an even bigger problem for the NFC in 2024. That’s thanks to the age-defying play of Matthew Stafford, the fifth round rookie capable of being his new huckleberry and a defense that improved steadily as the year wound down.
This wasn’t always true, and it’s strange that it took a Wild Card loss to cement it. Midway through the 2023 season Stafford was playing through injury, yet again, for a team with few playoff hopes, yet again. The Rams were 3-6 for the second straight year and sliding toward the kind of draft position that could convince them to reach for a potential young franchise quarterback.
The team’s Week 10 bye provided a chance to get right. Stafford returned at something like full strength for a team that finished on a 7-1 heater, losing only to the NFL’s best team — the Baltimore Ravens — on the road in overtime. In that stretch and including the one-and-done playoffs, the Los Angeles went from a roughly average offense (-0.020 expected points added (EPA) per play) to the league’s fourth-best unit (0.126 EPA per play).
A one-point road loss to one of the NFC’s best team stings, but it’s not enough to write off the Rams’ 2023 as the last leap of a dying buck. Los Angeles has the chops to run it back and be a problem for the rest of the conference. Especially since Stafford isn’t intent on retiring on a loss.
Matthew Stafford was asked whether he’ll be back next season. “That’s my plan right now, yeah, my plan is to be back. And you’ll have to deal with me for another year!”
— Jourdan Rodrigue (@JourdanRodrigue) January 15, 2024
Let’s talk about how the Rams look for 2024.
Puka Nacua can keep his passing game on time with minimal effort
There’s one clear reason for Stafford to come back beyond the fact he can still sling the damn ball. He’s got one of the most promising young wide receivers in NFL history saddled up next to him.
Stafford couldn’t have done this without the first year player who rewrote the NFL record book this fall. Puka Nacua averaged 68.2 receiving yards per game in LA’s wins this season, but was called on to do even more on a night where the rest of the Rams’ skill players had a muted impact against an aggressive Detroit attack.
Nacua caught his first nine targets for a rookie record 181 yards vs. the Lions’ deficient secondary — nearly 140 more yards than anyone else on the roster. He could have made it an even 10 for 10 and set Los Angeles up for a go-ahead field goal late in the fourth quarter if not for an uncalled hold on third-and-long.
3rd-and-14, high pressure situation, against Puka Nacua who's caught 9 of 9 targets so far. if you're not cheating, you're not trying pic.twitter.com/JwifrSyVbb
— Christian D'Andrea (@TrainIsland) January 15, 2024
Nacua finished his night with 181 yards — 111 more total yards than anyone else on the roster and 137 more receiving yards than any other Ram. The Lions knew the ball was going his way and were powerless to stop it before harnessing the power of mild cheating. Stafford knew this and, because he is both a good quarterback and not dumb, put the ball in his hands as much as possible.
Puka Nacua caught 9 of 10 targets for 181 yards & a TD, gaining 59 receiving yards after contact, the 4th-most in a game this season.
Nacua gained the 2nd-most receiving yards after contact (297) in the NFL during the regular season.#LARvsDET | #RamsHouse pic.twitter.com/4cou3z7dOn
— Next Gen Stats (@NextGenStats) January 15, 2024
Stafford has Nacua. He also has Kyren Williams, the player who finished third in the NFL in rushing yards despite starting only 11 games. He has an offensive line that came together to finish 2023 strong. He’s got Cooper Kupp, who clearly wasn’t himself after two injury riddled years but still had four 100-yard games this fall and can phase into a WR2 role in his early 30s.
The offense should not be a problem. What should worry the rest of the NFC is a defense made up of spare parts that played better than most expected, especially as the season wore on.
A young defense rose up and is primed to only get better
Aaron Donald and Ernest Jones IV were the only two returning players who’d started at least 10 games for the Rams in 2022. Four different starters came from the team’s draft classes from the past two years. Each was drafted in the third round or later because Los Angeles didn’t have any first or second round picks.
Still, this worked out. Jones was one of the NFL’s most productive linebackers in his third season as a pro. Rookies Byron Young and Kobie Turner combined for 17 sacks and 35 quarterback hits. Second year cornerback Cobie Durant allowed fewer than 54 percent of his targets to be caught.
This still left holes, but Los Angeles came together as a league-average unit over the latter half of 2023. This was a depth chart whose only recognizable player to the majority of the NFL was Aaron Donald. It leaned heavily on young players who weren’t blue chip first or second round picks and they came through.
A young, average defense isn’t anything to write home about, but the fact it was put together via the NFL’s version of a Dollar Tree is. General manager Les Snead slapped together a playoff-worthy defense with middling draft prospects and the kind of inexpensive veterans who could fit under a strained salary cap. In 2024, his Rams have a first round pick for the first time since drafting Jared Goff. Their estimated $44 million in cap space is 10th-most in the NFL, per Over the Cap.
That means this defense is only going to get better, even as Donald approaches his mid-30s (after an age 32 season in which is was voted an All-Pro by both the Associated Press and his peers). Any dropoff from Stafford won’t just be mitigated by the presence of Nacua and Williams and a hopefully healthy Kupp. He’ll be saved by shootouts by a rising young unit and a general manager who has been proficient at mining useful ore at a point where other franchises have been harvesting dirt.
