Good variety of questions in this week’s mailbag. Let’s jump into those …
From Tom Marshall (@aredzonauk): Could Matt LaFleur have a shot at coach of the year?
Tom, maybe I’m the wrong person to ask—I thought LaFleur deserved consideration in 2021, too, simply for his ability to manage the Aaron Rodgers situation. If it weren’t for his people skills, and how he bridged the sizable gap between the front office and Rodgers, I believe that things would’ve devolved quickly between the quarterback and team. Instead, because of LaFleur, you got two extra years of Rodgers in Green Bay and, additionally, you got Jordan Love two years of development time that most folks there say now he needed.
Lon Horwedel/USA TODAY Sports
And this year, to me, is another example of how LaFleur’s ability to manage people, and the adverse situations that crop up during an NFL season, has been exemplary.
On defense, the Packers have battled through injuries from the jump—with Rashan Gary and Eric Stokes returning from ACL surgeries, and guys such as Jaire Alexander, Darnell Savage and De’Vondre Campbell fighting through it recently. On offense, the line and backs have been hit hard with injuries, while the receiver and tight end groups are made up of first- and second-year players, with a first-time starting quarterback throwing them the ball.
There’s also the fact that the team—through some expected growing pains—fell from 2–1 to 3–6, maintained its collective head, and rallied to win three in a row. And, yeah, that’s a “for now” thing, and we still have to see the rest of the season play out. But the Packers’ schedule is very manageable over their final five weeks, and they’ve given their fans plenty of reason to believe.
So, yes, LaFleur should be in the Coach of the Year conversation with Indy’s Shane Steichen, Houston’s DeMeco Ryans, Detroit’s Dan Campbell, Miami’s Mike McDaniel and Baltimore’s John Harbaugh.
From bryg20 (@gnieskib): What’s the best reasonable landing spot for Marvin Harrison Jr. based on supporting cast, scheme and coaching?
Bryg20, it’s really hard to answer that question now, not knowing exactly who’ll be coaching or playing where in 2024, but we can look at the draft order as it stands now and break it down, with teams that realistically would be in position to take him, or make a short move up to go and get him …
• The Bears have a really good shot at the first pick, and could land two in the top five or six selections, which would set them up to take a quarterback and move up to get Harrison, or move down from No. 1 and get Harrison—if they decide to stick with Justin Fields. Either way, I do think, under the current construct, it’d be a pretty decent fit. You have a good, creative young coordinator, a star receiver (DJ Moore) who he could learn under, an improving line, and either a quarterback he knows (Fields) or one selected in the draft.
• The Cardinals would stick with Kyler Murray in this scenario, and it’s not like Arizona hasn’t had big years from receivers (see: Hopkins, DeAndre) with Murray running the show. Also, the team has bookend tackles and an innovative offense run by Drew Petzing, who was once receivers coach for Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen in Minnesota. I don’t mind this one, either.
• The Patriots, on the other hand, are devoid of tackles to anchor their line, another receiver to take the pressure off Harrison, or stability on the offensive coaching staff. But this is one where you’d expect a lot to change between now and April, so stay tuned.
• Washington’s a fun one, just because you already have Terry McLaurin and Jahan Dotson there. But we have no idea who’ll be coaching there, who’ll be playing quarterback (though Sam Howell’s been pretty good), or what the overall direction of the team will be. Plus, given the strength at receiver, it’d make sense for the Commanders to look for a tackle or edge rusher, or even a QB before someone such as Harrison.
• The Giants are interesting. They have Brian Daboll, Daniel Jones, a line anchored by Andrew Thomas with a lot of upside, a clear need at receiver, and a good, young complement to Harrison’s game in Jalin Hyatt.
• What the Jets do at the top of the draft, to me, rides on whether Aaron Rodgers returns. If he is, presuming they take care of their offensive line issues, then yes, of course (and I’d love to see him reunited with Garrett Wilson). But after Rodgers is done playing? Not as great.
We’ll see what happens.
From L.V. (@Browns_Buckeyez): Your thoughts on Trevor Lawrence playing after his high ankle sprain?
L.V., my thoughts are that without knowing the severity of the sprain and how he’ll feel at the end of the week, it’s hard to say. Also, high ankle sprains are tricky, in that you can make them worse by trying to play through the injury. But considering Doug Pederson didn’t rule Lawrence out of Sunday’s game with the Browns at his Tuesday presser is significant.
Nell Redmond/USA TODAY Sports (Maye); Gary A. Vasquez/USA TODAY Sports (Williams)
From Ronyag (@Ronyag_): What’s the likelihood of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, and/or Marvin Harrison Jr. going back to school to avoid being drafted by NE?
Ronyag, I’d say it’s zero. If those guys go back to school, it won’t be, and shouldn’t be, to avoid playing for any team, and that especially goes for the quarterbacks.
Here’s why—the real pot of gold at the end of the rainbow for these guys isn’t coming in 2024; it’s coming in ’27. That’s when next year’s rookies will be eligible for second contracts. And by ’27, a top quarterback deal could be worth $60 million to $70 million per year. So the goal should be for those guys to get to that point as fast as they possibly can, and you don’t do that by waiting.
The other thing is there’s no guarantee that the teams at the top of the draft board in 2025 will be any more attractive as landing spots than the teams at the top in ’24. That’s not how any of this works.
And that’s why I’ve said for a while that if Williams is really dissatisfied with the idea of playing for whoever gets the first pick, he’d be better off pulling an Eli Manning (forcing a trade) than a Peyton Manning (staying in school for an extra year).
From Ed Helinski (@MrEd315): Who’s your best three Scrooges in the NFL this season. Who do you have between players, coaches and management? Rank them if you wish.
Fun question, Ed. I’ll bite …
My player Scrooge would be Washington defensive lineman Jonathan Allen, who’s a really good player, but continually the voice of Commanders misery. Anything going wrong in D.C.? The guy to check in with postgame is Allen—he’ll tell you just how terrible things have gotten. (And, Jon, so you know: We always appreciate the honesty.)
My management Scrooge would be Titans GM Ran Carthon. And, yeah, I’m saying this selfishly, but I really wish he would have traded Derrick Henry before the deadline, and maybe DeAndre Hopkins, too. I’m not sure how much longer we’ll get to watch either of those two, so I wish both of them were on contenders.
As for coaching Scrooge, that’ll always be Bill Belichick.
#SICoverOTD: Dec. 31, 2007: A jolly old elf? Bill Belichick (Photoshopped) as Santa Claus is the gift that keeps on giving nine years later pic.twitter.com/ZNoGN18HMc
— SI Vault (@si_vault) December 31, 2016
From Jeffrey Atwood (@SportsAtwood): Is there a chance there’s going to be a sky judge for games next season considering officiating has been all over the place this season?
Jeffrey, first of all, thank you for taking up my crusade.
Not having a formal sky judge by now is the most befuddling thing the NFL has failed to do in years, and maybe decades. First, I’ll give you the easy explanation. You, me and everyone else sitting at home has—any time we turn on an NFL game—the benefit of a dozen different angles (more for bigger games) at a crystal-clear, high-definition quality. It’s why, in fact, we now even can see all the misfires and mishaps from officials. And, yet, those very same officials are not given the same benefit to make calls that tens of millions get every Sunday.
So the question becomes how you do it functionally, and that’s definitely not the easiest thing in the world to work out. But giving a sky judge a direct line to the head referee, where they could say “pick up the flag” or “drop the flag” or “he was out of bounds” on obvious misses, wouldn’t be that hard. A sky judge would be used to change calls on command—and limit the challenges you’d have in a game.
If you want more on this, you can find it in this story I did on a pretty extensive effort by the coaches to get a sky judge three years ago. You’ll read that the 32 head coaches were unanimously for the idea. And, to me, that should tell you all you need to know.
From Matt (@CommandersCov): Anything Washington related—possible next head coaches, GMs?
Matt, be patient. We’ve answered a bunch of questions on the topic the past few weeks. At this point, it sure feels like total change is inevitable in D.C., and I think the first name everyone is talking about will be Bill Belichick. Whether that’s realistic remains to be seen.
Joe Camporeale/USA TODAY Sports
From Sam Gregory (@samtheg13): If you were the Cardinals’ GM, based on what you’ve seen so far, would you keep Kyler or draft a QB?
Sam, this is a complex question. It starts here—Kyler Murray actually has some control over it. There are two quarterbacks considered slam-dunk, top-of-the-draft guys in this year’s class. USC's Caleb Williams is one, and North Carolina’s Drake Maye is the other, with LSU’s Jayden Daniels probably the one other prospect capable of crashing that part. Thus, if Arizona has a top-two pick, it has a decision to make. But if Murray plays well enough to move the Cardinals out of that territory, it’s fair to say the chance he sticks skyrockets.
From there, this thing doesn’t get simpler.
If the Cardinals moved on from Murray after this year, they’d owe him $35.3 million in guarantees that would effectively serve as a buyout. If they moved on after 2024—thanks to a rolling guarantee structure—there’d be $29.9 million guaranteed for ’25 that’d be the buyout. And if they moved on after ’25, there’d be no buyout. So that essentially means that if you’re keeping him into ’24, it’s probably with the intention of keeping him for ’25. And under that scenario, GM Monti Ossenfort and coach Jonathan Gannon would be tying their job security to him.
So essentially, after this year, the decision, if you have the first or second pick, is threefold …
• A $35 million buyout, and Williams or Maye on a rookie deal through 2027.
• Murray at $71 million for 2024 and ’25.
• Murray at $68.7 million for 2024 ($39 million in ’24 salary, plus $30 million buyout).
It’s an interesting dynamic, to say the least, and one that Murray has some level of control over.
From Joevg (@joevg91): With all the awful coaching in the league, why should the Pats get rid of Bill Belichick over a bad year? (coaching-wise, not GM)
Joey, it’s an interesting question, for sure. And I get the sentiment—there’s a reasonable take here that the candidate pool might be such where it’s more attractive just to run it back one more time with the greatest coach of all time, rather than rolling the dice on a new guy.
But, to me, that ignores the way the Patriots are set up right now, with a potential heir to Belichick’s throne on staff. Elevating Jerod Mayo wouldn’t come with anywhere near the unknown that hiring, say, Ben Johnson or Brian Johnson or Brian Callahan or whoever else, so the whole “coaching well is dry” dynamic doesn’t really apply here the same way it might in another place.
That, of course, is assuming that the Krafts are still all in on elevating Mayo, who did a contract last year that matches Belichick’s in length, and who was convinced to turn down an interview with the Panthers in January. Obviously, things haven’t gone well since, with the team at 2–10, and I can see where that might change an owner’s view on where to go next. I just don’t think Robert Kraft is the type to overreact to the moment, so I’d imagine (and this is my guess) he’d be apt to stay the course with Mayo.
From sportsfan0275 (@sportsfan034722): What is the league sentiment on Quinn Ewers? If he has a fantastic CFP, could he become QB3/QB4 of the class and declare?
Sports Fan, I think the prevailing sentiment is there’s still a lot to be learned. He has a strong arm, a lightning-quick release, the ability to throw from different arm angles and a good track record as a decision-maker. On the flip side, the questions would be how fast he sees the field, whether he can make anticipatory throws and his size (6'2", 207 pounds). I do know there’s confidence from people around him that he’ll crush the predraft process, which would help him.
And, yeah, maybe if Ewers is the best player in the College Football Playoff a month from now, the dynamic around him changes a little. But as of right now, I’d say he’s staying at Texas to play next year as a fourth-year junior. Remember, he reclassified to skip his senior year in high school and is still 20. He also has only 20 college starts and is a conscientious kid, keenly aware of the metric out there that the threshold for quarterbacks having success early at the NFL level is 25 college starts.
So I think he’s probably staying, regardless of what happens in New Orleans or, should the Longhorns advance, Houston. But we’ll see what happens.
From Canuck Boy (@CanuckBoy670AM): If you were a current free agent and could pick your next team, what three to four organizations would you avoid due to mismanagement or other reasons, even if they offered a little more money?
Canuck, I’d say nine times out of 10, free-agent decisions are dictated by money, as they should be. But I do think players should always be aware of which organizations are stable and which organizations aren’t—because as soon as a coach or a GM is gone, a guy who was once a prized free-agent pickup can be, too. So, obviously, you look at a team such as Carolina as one that you’d be leery of right now, and maybe Washington would be on the list, too, just because of the unknown with a new owner (with the Panthers being the cautionary tale).
Then, again, Houston would’ve topped this list maybe six months ago, and now, to me, the Texans should be one of the top teams to go to for prospective free agents. So these things can flip fast, which is why most times the smart thing for a player in his prime to do is just get as much money as he possibly can and worry about the rest later.
