SEATTLE — So how just how big of a win was this for the Mariners?
President of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto grabbed headlines Monday when he dealt for a 2021 All-Star and one of the game's premier home-run hitters. Joining the Mariners are left fielder Jesse Winker, who made his first Midsummer Classic with the Reds last season, and third baseman Eugenio Suarez, who smashed 129 dingers in his last four years with Cincinnati.
In exchange, the M's gave up outfielder Jake Fraley, right-handed pitcher Justin Dunn and highly touted left-handed pitching prospect Brandon Williamson and a player to be named later. Notable — but is this truly enough to end the postseason drought?
Winker was terrific last year, slashing .305/.394/.556 while hitting 32 doubles and 24 home runs. He is particularly effective against right-handed pitchers, and the American League West is stacked with those.
The plus is obvious — a potent bat added to a lineup that finished 22nd in runs last year. The potential minus? A platoon player, Winker has never played more than 113 games.
Dipoto said the plan is to give Winker more exposure to left-handed pitchers, so he might set a career high for plate appearances this year. It's a good addition if he stays healthy, a potentially great addition if gets more playing time and eats up southpaws, too.
As for Suarez? Well, there is no denying the power. He hit 31 home runs last year and 49 in 2019. But there is denying his defense and ability to get on base consistently. The 30-year-old Venezuelan hit just .198 last season with a .286 on-base percentage. The year before he hit .202 with a .312 on-base percentage.
His WAR last season was -0.7. Kyle Seager, the third baseman Suarez will replace, posted a WAR of 2.0. Despite Suarez's penchant for the long ball, I'm not sure this is an upgrade.
You can't say Dipoto hasn't improved this roster from last season. The Mariners added reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray before the lockout and All-Star second baseman Adam Frazier. With the Winker and Suarez additions Monday, that's three more All-Stars and one more Cy Young winner than they had before.
But again — is it enough to end this torturous 21-year playoff drought?
Remember, the Mariners won 90 games last season despite having a minus-51 run differential. Baseball Reference's win-loss predictor said that based on their talent, the M's should have won only 76. Much of their overachievement can be credited to a lights-out bullpen, but it wouldn't be too surprising if Seattle regressed to the mean in 2022.
So will there be any more offensive additions?
"The likelihood is, that's our offensive team," Dipoto said Monday. "You're looking at it."
It's fair to wonder why the M's weren't able to add more to their offense through free agency. Perhaps they couldn't find the right fit. Perhaps players weren't interested in coming. Perhaps ownership isn't quite as free-flowing with the paychecks as fans would like. All speculation, but while this offense is better, it's not necessarily elite.
Maybe this is the season we'll see outfielder Jarred Kelenic break out. The highly touted prospect had his moments last year — hitting 14 home runs over 389 plate appearances. But he had his shortcomings as well, posting a WAR of -1.8 while hitting just .181. There's also the question of how much Kyle Lewis will contribute. The center fielder won AL Rookie of the Year honors in 2020 but suffered a meniscus tear that limited him to 36 games last season. This team has playoff potential, but it is far from a playoff shoo-in.
So what's next? Will Dipoto try to shore up the starting pitching rotation? Acquire a Frankie Montas or Sean Manaea or another arm that could give this team more depth on the mound? Jerry said Monday that he'd love to upgrade at the top of the rotation — "I just don't know how realistic it is, because that at this point almost certainly will require a trade."
With Russell Wilson gone from the Seahawks, the Mariners have a chance to establish themselves as this city's most popular sports team. Those last few games at T-Mobile Park last year, when a playoff berth was still a possibility, were electrifying.
Dipoto has done a lot this offseason. He deserves credit. Fans should just hope he's not done yet.
