SEATTLE — Never tell the Mariners the odds.
At least that was the case all last season. Seemed every time you looked up at the standings, they'd be a game or two outside the final wild-card spot, yet still — the computer formula always said they had less than a 5% chance to reach the postseason.
In the end, the machines got it right, but the M's were still relevant up to the final game of the year. Any chance they can rediscover such relevance?
Well, their record certainly doesn't seem to indicate that. After a Sunday loss to the Astros, the Mariners are 20-28 and already 10 games back of Houston in the American League West. And yet, with the playoffs expanding to 12 teams, they are just 6.5 games back of the Angels for the final wild-card spot.
OK, maybe "just" doesn't feel like a just description of the Mariners' predicament. They have won two of their past 10 series and nine of their past 33 games. As a result, baseball-reference (as of publication time) gives them a 7.6% chance of reaching the postseason.
How do they defy those odds? Like this.
No. 1) The offseason pickups need to play like they were expected to — or at least close.
Reigning AL Cy Young winner Robbie Ray was actually much better in his last outing than the three runs in six innings suggested. He struck out 10 A's in that stretch, and one of the two home runs he gave up looked like a pop fly that somehow snuck over the wall next to the left-field foul pole. But that doesn't take away from him having a 4.75 earned-run average and -0.1 WAR so far.
Second baseman and 2021 All-Star Adam Frazier has an OPS of .675, which is .104 points lower than last year and the second worst of his career. Jesse Winker, who was also an All-Star last year, has struggled even more. Way more. The outfielder's OPS dropped from .949 last season to .598 now. Not surprising that he has a WAR of -0.6.
Third baseman Eugenio Suarez, meanwhile, has been decent in the power category, having slugged nine home runs, but he is batting .220. In other words, we have a lot of All-Stars exhibiting little star power.
No. 2) The bullpen needs a revival.
The Mariners relievers had the eighth-best ERA in Major League Baseball last season. They were the often impregnable unit that allowed Seattle to win so many close games. This year? The M's bullpen is 22nd in ERA.
Perhaps the poster boy for this decline is Drew Steckenrider, who had a 2.00 ERA last season and a 2.8 WAR. He got my vote for the "X Factor" award, which is one of three awards local media hand out to the Mariners each season. This year? Steckenrider has an ERA of 5.65, a WAR of -0.4 and was recently sent down to the minors. The relievers are not making believers out of the fans.
No. 3) The team must get healthy and stay healthy.
Obviously, nobody gets injured on purpose. But when a guy such as Mitch Haniger, arguably the Mariners' most consistent player, is out for over 10 weeks due to a high-ankle sprain, it's a problem.
Kyle Lewis, 2020 AL Rookie of the Year, finally returned to the Mariners last week after a long recovery from a knee injury and has already hit two home runs in four games. These are the players essential for Seattle success.
There are lots of other factors as well. Rookie Julio Rodriguez's stats are surging as he is approaching phenom status. First baseman Ty France and shortstop J.P. Crawford are among the top in the AL in WAR, with France at 2.7 and Crawford at 2.6. They need to keep it up.
Meanwhile, there's Jarred Kelenic, who was one of the most heralded prospects in baseball for a while. Unfortunately, he hit .140 this year for Seattle before being sent down.
It's still relatively early for this team, although the results have been more than relatively disappointing. But a turnaround is still possible. If it happens, it will be because of what you see above — though it is very much against the odds.
